The first and the second e of the extreme value distribution,EV1

In the peak over threshold model resulting in the Extreme-value distribution, type I, (EV1) the firste of the distribution function is based on the Poisson number of exceedances, and the seconde arises from the Exponentially distributed magnitudes.This paper, on the one hand, generalises the Poisson model to the (positive and negative) Binomial distribution, and, on the other hand, the Exponential distribution is generalised to the Generalised Pareto distribution. Lack of fit with respect to the Poisson and Exponential distribution is measured by statistics derived from those which would be locally most powerful if the estimates of the location and scale parameter were equal to the true parameter values. Ways of combining both statistics are discussed.     

A study of objective methods for water mass analysis,applied to the Iceland Basin

Ocean Dynamics - Cluster analysis and principal component analysis have been applied to multi-parameter hydrographic data from the Iceland Basin. The results indicate that both objective methods...     

Late Holocene flood magnitudes in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta resolved by a two-dimensional hydraulic modelling approach

Palaeoflood hydraulic modelling is essential for quantifying ‘millennial flood’ events not covered in the instrumental record. Palaeoflood modelling research has largely focused on one-dimensional analysis for geomorphologically stable fluvial settings because two-dimensional analysis for dynamic alluvial settings is time consuming and requires a detailed representation of the past landscape. In this study, we make the step to spatially continuous palaeoflood modelling for a large and dynamic lowland area. We applied advanced hydraulic model simulations (1D–2D coupled set-up in HEC-RAS with 950 channel sections and 108 × 10³ floodplain grid cells) to quantify the extent and magnitude of past floods in the Lower Rhine river valley and upper delta. As input, we used a high-resolution terrain reconstruction (palaeo-DEM) of the area in early mediaeval times, complemented with hydraulic roughness values. After conducting a series of model runs with increasing discharge magnitudes at the upstream boundary, we compared the simulated flood water levels with an inventory of exceeded and non-exceeded elevations extracted from various geological, archaeological and historical sources. This comparison demonstrated a Lower Rhine millennial flood magnitude of approximately 14,000 m³/s for the Late Holocene period before late mediaeval times. This value exceeds the largest measured discharges in the instrumental record, but not the design discharges currently accounted for in flood risk management.     

The effect of single vegetation elements on wind speed and sediment transport in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso

Soil loss caused by wind erosion is a widespread phenomenon in the Sahelian zone of West Africa. According to Sahelian farmers, scattered vegetation standing in amongst the crop has the potential for a wind erosion control strategy. This study was conducted to study the effect of single vegetation elements on the pattern of average wind speed and sediment transport. This was done by two experiments that were carried out during the rainy seasons of 2002 and 2003 in north Burkina Faso, West Africa. Wind speeds were measured using three sonic anemometers, at a sampling frequency of 16 Hz. Sediment transport was determined by calculating the mass fluxes from 17 MWAC catchers. In this study, a shrub was defined as a vegetation element with branches until ground and a tree as a vegetation element with a distinctive trunk below a canopy. Behind shrubs wind speed near the soil surface was reduced up to approximately seven times the height of the shrub. The observed reduction in wind speed in the area where wind speed was reduced was 15 per cent on average. At the sides of the shrub, wind speed was increased, by on average 6 per cent. As the area of increase in wind speed is one‐third of the area of decrease in wind speed, the net effect of a shrub is a reduction in wind speed. A similar pattern was visible for the pattern of sediment transport around a shrub. Downwind of a shrub, sediment transport was diminished up to seven times the height of the shrub. Probably most of this material was trapped by the shrub. Trees showed a local increase of wind around the trunk, which is expected to relate to an increase in sediment transport around the trunk. Mass flux measurements of sediment transport were not made, but visual observations in the field substantiate this. Behind the canopy of a tree, a tree acts similarly to a shrub regarding its effects on average wind speed, but as a tree is generally a larger obstacle than a shrub the extent of this effect is larger than for shrubs. Thus, whereas shrubs are more effective than trees regarding their direct effect on soil loss by trapping sand particles near the soil surface, trees are more effective in affecting soil loss indirectly by reducing the wind speed downwind more effectively than shrubs. Therefore, to reduce soil loss in an area, the presence of both trees and shrubs is crucial. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

用Rayleigh面波方位各向异性研究中国大陆岩石圈形变特征

中国大陆地质构造历史非常复杂,岩石圈长期积累的形变较大,而利用地震面波传播的各向异性是研究岩石圈形变特征的强有力手段. 本文利用双台窄带通滤波-互相关方法与基于图像分析的相速度频散曲线提取技术,提取Rayleigh面波相速度频散资料,进而反演中国大陆及邻区20～120 s周期Rayleigh面波相速度方位各向异性空间分布图像. 检测板测试结果显示：中国大陆大部分区域的方位各向异性横向分辨率在5°左右. 各向异性研究结果表明：中国大陆地壳上地幔方位各向异性特征存在显著的空间差异,反映出形变特征的空间差异;104°E以东地区地壳上地幔各向异性弱于西部地区,表明其构造变形总体弱于西部地区. 青藏地块及其东缘地区地壳与上地幔顶部变形最为强烈. 但东部的局部地区如华南地块与珠江口地区、鄂尔多斯盆地西南缘以及秦岭-大别造山带,较强的各向异性显示这些区域在不同时期也经历了强变形. 青藏地块内中短周期快波方向自西向东顺时针旋转变化可能指示板块碰撞与挤压过程中软弱物质的流变方向. 青藏地块西部中下地壳和上地幔形变模式相似,可能处于壳幔耦合状态;而中东部及东缘地区地壳上地幔形变模式存在明显差异,壳幔似乎不具备垂直连贯的形变特征. 位于青藏地块北部的塔里木盆地、柴达木盆地以及祁连褶皱带同样经历了强变形. 包括四川盆地在内的上扬子地块快波方向的变化显示中地壳与下地壳上地幔形变模式不同,而形变特征一致的下地壳与上地幔应为强耦合. 大约以103°E为界,龙门山断裂带可分为南西段和北东段,南西段处于低速区,而北东段位于高速区,且方位各向异性强度明显大于南西段;2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0级地震沿断裂带的单侧破裂模式除与北东段的高应力积累有关外,还可能与北东段地下介质物性存在密切关系,高速坚硬岩体的发育有利于应变能的积累与集中释放.     

Hydrothermal calderas

The standard model of caldera formation is related to the emptying of a magma chamber and ensuing roof collapse during large eruptions or subsurface withdrawal. Although this model works well for numerous volcanoes, it is inappropriate for many basaltic volcanoes (with the notable exception of Hawaii), as these have eruptions that involve volumes of magma that are small compared to the collapse. Many arc volcanoes also have similar oversized depressions, such as Poas (Costa Rica) and Aoba (Vanuatu). In this article, we propose an alternative caldera model based on deep hydrothermal alteration of volcanic rocks in the central part of the edifice. Under certain conditions, the clay-rich altered and pressurized core may flow under its own weight, spread laterally, and trigger very large caldera-like collapse. Several specific mechanisms can generate the formation of such hydrothermal calderas. Among them, we identify two principal modes: mode 1: ripening with summit loading and flank spreading and mode II: unbuttressing with flank subsidence and flank sliding. Processes such as summit loading or flank subsidence may act simultaneously in hybrid mechanisms. Natural examples are shown to illustrate the different modes of formation. For ripening, we give Aoba (Vanuatu) as an example of probable summit loading, while Casita (Nicaragua) is the type example of flank spreading. For unbuttressing, Nuku Hiva Island (Marquesas) is our example for flank subsidence and Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion) is our example of flank sliding. The whole process is slow and probably needs (a) at least a few tens of thousands of years to deeply alter the edifice and reach conditions suitable for ductile flow and (b) a few hundred years to achieve the caldera collapse. The size and the shape of the caldera strictly mimic that of the underlying weak core. Thus, the size of the caldera is not controlled by the dimensions of the underlying magma reservoir. A collapsing hydrothermal caldera could generate significant phreatic activity and trigger major eruptions from a coexisting magmatic complex. As the buildup to collapse is slow, such caldera-forming events could be detected long before their onset.     

川西地区台阵环境噪声瑞利波相速度层析成像

2006年中国地震局地质研究所地震动力学国家重点实验室在川西地区(26°N~32°N,100°E~105°E)布设了由297台宽频带数字地震仪组成的流动观测台阵.利用该密集台阵29°N以北156个台站2007年1~12月份的地震环境噪声记录和互相关技术,我们得到了所有台站对的面波经验格林函数和瑞利波相速度频散曲线,并进一步反演得到了观测台阵下方2~35 s周期的瑞利波相速度分布图像．本文结果表明,观测台阵覆盖的川滇地块、松潘-甘孜地块和四川盆地的地壳速度结构存在显著差异,具体表现为：(1)短周期（2~8 s）相速度分布与地表构造特征相吻合,作为川滇地块、松潘-甘孜地块和四川盆地之间的边界断裂,龙门山断裂带和鲜水河断裂带对上述三个地块上地壳的速度结构具有明显的控制作用,四川盆地前陆低速特征表明相应区域存在较厚的（约10 km）沉积盖层;(2)中周期（12~18 s）相速度分布表明,川滇地块和松潘-甘孜地块中上地壳速度结构存在明显的不均匀横向变化,并形成了尺度不同且高、低速相间的分块结构,而四川盆地中地壳整体上已经表现出相对高速;(3)长周期（25~35 s）相速度分布表明,松潘-甘孜地块,特别是川滇地块中下地壳表现为广泛的明显低速异常,意味着它们的中下地壳相对软弱,而四川盆地的中下地壳呈现整体性的相对高速,意味着四川盆地具有相对坚硬的中下地壳,并且以汶川地震的震中为界,龙门山断裂带的地壳结构显示了北段为高速异常,南段为低速异常的分段特征．     

临界转换的早期预警信号

从生态系统到金融市场和气候在内的很多复杂动力系统,都会有临界点,在这样的点上系统可能会发生突变,从而演变到一个对立的动力模式上。在这样的临界点到达之前对其进行预测极为困难,但是现在,不同科学领域的研究工作表明,普遍性的早期预警信号有迹可循。对一系列不同类型的系统来说,这些信号会指示是否正在趋近一个临界阈值。     

Weighted sum method for calculating ground force: an evaluation by using a portable vibrator system

Using a lightweight portable vibrator, we have evaluated the accuracy of the 'weighted sum' method for calculating ground force. Experiments in which the vibrator was suspended elastically have shown that, contrary to expectations based on standard theory, the amplitude of the weighted sum ground force was significantly above zero at high frequencies (> 500 Hz). Complementary investigations with load cells confirmed these results. If not accounted for, these deviations may introduce significant 'vibroseis-correlation noise' in processed records. Furthermore, we have demonstrated that ground force and base-plate velocity can be used to estimate the radiation impedance, which describes the interaction of (vibratory) sources with the ground. Using the mechanical characteristics of the system (i.e. maximum displacement, maximum velocity and maximum acceleration of the base-plate) and the radiation impedance, the behaviour of the portable vibrator on typical Dutch soil types was evaluated. We found that for the same sweep, more high-frequency energy could be generated on hard grounds (e.g. concrete) characterized by a higher radiation impedance than on softer grounds (e.g. clay or sand). Knowledge of this behaviour may provide important information for use in data interpretation.     

Calibration and identifiability analysis of a water quality model to evaluate the contribution of different processes to the short-term dynamics of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients in the surface water of a rural catchment

A method that combines calibration and identifiability analysis of a dynamic water quality model to evaluate the relative importance of various processes affecting the dynamic aspects of water composition is illustrated by a study of the response of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients to a flood hydrograph in a rural catchment area in the Netherlands. Since the water quality model simulates the observed concentrations of suspended sediment and dissolved nutrients reasonably well, the most important processes during the observed flood hydrograph could be determined. These were erosion, exchange between dissolved phase and bed sediments and denitrification. It is concluded that the method is very useful for identifying the most significant model parameters and processes that are essential for water quality modelling. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.