We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (Tmin) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced Tmin is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed Tmin anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 Tmin anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the Tmin forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.
It has become established practice during the past 20 years to use high-resolution historical rainfall time series as input to hydrological model packages for detailed simulation of urban drainage systems. However, sufficiently long rain series are rarely available from the exact catchment in question and simulations are hence often based on available rain series from other locations. Extreme rainfall properties of importance to the performance of urban storm drainage systems vary significantly even in regions with only minor physiographic differences. Part of this variation can be explained by regional variations of the mean annual rainfall and the remaining statistical residue can be interpreted as statistical uncertainty.In Denmark, more than 75 high-resolution rain gauges are installed across a total area of 43,000 m. About 40 gauges had sufficiently long records to be included in a comprehensive national investigation where newly developed statistical regionalisation procedures were used to model the regional variation of extreme rainfalls. On this basis, a spreadsheet model was made available for estimation of extreme design rainfalls and the associated uncertainty at any location in the country. Statistics were furthermore computed to classify historical rainfall time series according to the developed regional model, and this makes it possible to assess the uncertainty related with using different historical rain series for simulations at ungauged locations.This research indicates that use of historical point rainfall data at ungauged locations introduces a significant uncertainty that is largely overlooked in today's practice. The engineering recommendation is to select historical rain series based on an evaluation of the local physiographic characteristics (e.g., the mean annual rainfall) and a (pre-defined) desired safety level of the simulations. 相似文献
General purpose Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers are frequently used in small-scale urban pollution dispersion simulations
without a large extent of ver- tical flow. Vertical flow, however, plays an important role in the formation of local breezes,
such as urban heat island induced breezes that have great significance in the ventilation of large cities. The effects of
atmospheric stratification, anelasticity and Coriolis force must be taken into account in such simulations. We introduce a
general method for adapting pressure based CFD solvers to atmospheric flow simulations in order to take advantage of their
high flexibility in geometrical modelling and meshing. Compressibility and thermal stratification effects are taken into account
by utilizing a novel system of transformations of the field variables and by adding consequential source terms to the model
equations of incompressible flow. Phenomena involving mesoscale to microscale coupled effects can be analyzed without model
nesting, applying only local grid refinement of an arbitrary level. Elements of the method are validated against an analytical
solution, results of a reference calculation, and a laboratory scale urban heat island circulation experiment. The new approach
can be applied with benefits to several areas of application. Inclusion of the moisture transport phenomena and the surface
energy balance are important further steps towards the practical application of the method. 相似文献
The intracloud to cloud-to-ground lightning flash ratio (Z) has been estimated for the first time in Southeastern Brazil and in the tropical region using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Brazilian lightning detection network (BrasilDat) lightning data obtained from 1999 to 2005. Geographical variations of Z and their relation to elevation, latitude, precipitation, total lightning density and percentage of positive CG lightning will be discussed. Daily variations of Z will also be presented. The results suggest that Z values are similar to studies outside the tropics and that are influenced by orographic features. 相似文献
The summertime surface energy balance (SEB) at Kohnen station, situated on the high Antarctic plateau (75°00′ S, 0°04′ E,
2892m above sea level) is presented for the period of 8 January to 9 February 2002. Shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes
were measured directly; the former was corrected for problems associated with the cosine response of the instrument. Sensible
and latent heat fluxes were calculated using the bulk method, and eddy-correlation measurements and the modified Bowen ratio
method were used to verify these calculated fluxes. The calculated sub-surface heat flux was checked by comparing calculated
to measured snow temperatures. Uncertainties in the measurements and energy-balance calculations are discussed.
The general meteorological conditions were not extraordinary during the period of the experiment, with a mean 2-m air temperature
of −27.5°C, specific humidity of 0.52×10−3kg kg−1 and wind speed of 4.1ms−1. The experiment covered the transition period from Antarctic summer (positive net radiation) to winter (negative net radiation),
and as a result the period mean net radiation, sensible heat, latent heat and sub-surface heat fluxes were small with values
of −1.1, 0.0, −1.0 and 0.7 Wm−2, respectively. Daily mean net radiation peaked on cloudy days (16 Wm−2) and was negative on clear-sky days (minimum of −19 W m−2). Daily mean sensible heat flux ranged from −8 to +10 Wm−2, latent heat flux from −4 to 0 Wm−2 and sub-surface heat flux from −8 to +7 Wm−2. 相似文献
The mesoscale weather prediction model ’Lokal-Modell’ (LM) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst is applied to the situation of an
Arctic cold air outbreak in the Fram Strait region in April 1998. Observations are available from a flight along 50E carried out during the ARTIST campaign. Initial and time-dependent boundary data for the simulation are taken from a larger
scale operational model system.
Using the standard configuration of LM, the simulation reproduced the propagation of cold air and the characteristic structure
of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) in fair agreement with the observations. However, a detailed comparison revealed three
basic problems. Firstly, there is evidence that the available data on sea-ice conditions were insufficient approximations
to the true state for several reasons. A modification of the sea-ice data towards observations revealed that parts of the
discrepancies were due to the original sea-ice data. Secondly, a control run with the model in its standard configuration
shows an insufficient warming of the ABL downstream of the ice edge due to underestimation of surface heat fluxes. A simple
modification of the approach for the scalar roughness length resulted in the strongest benefit, while comparative studies
showed only a slight sensitivity to different types of parametrisation of turbulent mixing or the inclusion of an additional
moist convection parametrisation. Thirdly, in all the simulations the deepening of the convective ABL downstream of the ice
edge is weaker than observed. This may be partly due to the thermal stratification above the ABL in the analysis data, which
is more stable than observed; but it may also be a hint to the fact that processes near the inversion are insufficiently parametrised
in mesoscale models with resolutions as used in LM. The simulated cloud layer in the convective ABL is similar to that observed
with respect to condensate content, a sharply defined cloud top, a diffuse lower bound, and continuous light precipitation. 相似文献
Measurements of the mean and turbulent structure of the planetary boundary layer using a sodar and a sonic anemometer, and radiative measurements using a radiometer, were carried out in the summer of 1999–2000 at the Antarctic plateau station of Dome C during a two-month period. At Dome C strong ground-based inversions dominate for most of the year. However, in spite of the low surface temperatures (between −50 and −20 °C), and the surface always covered by snow and ice, a regular daytime boundary-layer evolution, similar to that observed at mid-latitudes, was observed during summertime. The mixed-layer height generally reaches 200–300 m at 1300–1400 LST in high summer (late December, early January); late in the summer (end of January to February), as the solar elevation decreases, it reduces to 100–200 m. A comparison between the mixed-layer height estimated from sodar measurements and that calculated using a mixed-layer growth model shows a rather satisfactory agreement if we assign a value of 0.01–0.02 m s−1 to the subsidence velocity at the top of the mixed layer, and a value of 0.003–0.004 K m−1 to the potential temperature gradient above the mixed layer. 相似文献
At present a variety of boundary-layer schemes is in use in numerical models and often a large variation of model results
is found. This is clear from model intercomparisons, such as organized within the GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS).
In this paper we analyze how the specification of the land-surface temperature affects the results of a boundary-layer scheme,
in particular for stable conditions. As such we use a well established column model of the boundary layer and we vary relevant
parameters in the turbulence scheme for stable conditions. By doing so, we can reproduce the outcome for a variety of boundary-layer
models. This is illustrated with the original set-up of the second GABLS intercomparison study using prescribed geostrophic
winds and land-surface temperatures as inspired by (but not identical to) observations of CASES-99 for a period of more than
two diurnal cycles. The model runs are repeated using a surface temperature that is calculated with a simple land-surface
scheme. In the latter case, it is found that the range of model results in stable conditions is reduced for the sensible heat
fluxes, and the profiles of potential temperature and wind speed. However, in the latter case the modelled surface temperatures
are rather different than with the original set-up, which also impacts on near-surface air temperature and wind speed. As
such it appears that the model results in stable conditions are strongly influenced by non-linear feedbacks in which the magnitude
of the geostrophic wind speed and the related land-surface temperature play an important role. 相似文献
Analyses of aircraft observations of the stratocumulus-topped boundary layer during the First ISCCP (International Satellite
Cloud Climatology Project) Regional Experiment (FIRE I) show the frequent presence of clear, but relatively moist, air patches
near the stratocumulus cloud-top interface. A conditional sampling of measurements in these clear air patches shows that their
thermodynamic properties do more resemble boundary-layer air characteristics than those of free troposphere air. From an aircraft
leg through cloud tops it is demonstrated that turbulent mixing across the cloud-top interface can lead to the local dissipation
of the cloud top. Analogous to the terminology used for shallow cumulus parameterizations this process can be considered as
detrainment, with which we mean that after a mixing event across the cloud-top boundaries, mixed unsaturated parcels become
part of the clear environment of the cloud. 相似文献