Evaluating the Ability of CRCM5 to Simulate Mixed Precipitation

Precipitation episodes in the form of freezing rain and ice pellets represent natural hazards affecting eastern Canada during the cold season. These types of precipitation mainly occur in the St. Lawrence River valley and the Atlantic provinces of Canada. This study aims to evaluate the ability of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), using a 0.11° horizontal grid mesh, to hindcast mixed precipitation when driven by reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for a 35-year period. In general, the CRCM5 simulation slightly overestimates the occurrence of freezing rain, but the geographical distribution is well reproduced. The duration of freezing rain events and accompanying surface winds in the Montréal region are reproduced by CRCM5. A case study is performed for an especially catastrophic freezing-rain event in January 1998; the model succeeds in simulating the intensity and duration of the episode, as well as the propitious meteorological environment. Overall, the model is also able to reproduce the climatology and a specific event of freezing rain and ice pellets.     

Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.     

Influence of the sediment delivery ratio index on the analysis of silting and break risk in the Plasencia reservoir (Central System,Spain)

The random forest method was used to generate susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides in the Donjek River area within the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, based on an inventory of landslides compiled by the Geological Survey of Canada in collaboration with the Yukon Geological Survey. The aim of this study is to develop data-driven landslide susceptibility models which can provide information on risk assessment to existing and planned infrastructure. The factors contributing to slope failure used in the models include slope angle, slope aspect, plan and profile curvatures, bedrock geology, surficial geology, proximity to faults, permafrost distribution, vegetation distribution, wetness index, and proximity to drainage system. A total of 83 debris flow deposits, 181 active layer detachment slides, and 104 rock slides were compiled in the landslide inventory. The samples representing the landslide free zones were randomly selected. The ratio of landslide/landslide free zones was set to 1:1 and 1:2 to examine the results of different sample ratios on the classification. Two-thirds of the samples for each landslide type were used in the classification, and the remaining 1/3 were used to evaluate the results. In addition to the classification maps, probability maps were also created, which served as the susceptibility maps for debris flows, rock slides, and active layer detachment slides. Success and prediction rate curves created to evaluate the performance of the resulting models indicate a high performance of the random forest in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons and trace metals in bivalves and nearshore sediments from the Dominican Republic

Bivalves (Crassostrea rizhophorae, Isognomon alatus, Codakia orbicularis Linné, and Tellina fausta) and sediment samples collected from 12 locations along the Dominican Republic coastline were used to assess the degree of nearshore contamination by selected chlorinated hydrocarbons and heavy metals. Concentrations of total chlordanes, DDTs and PCBs ranged from 0.51 to 7.47 ng/g, < MDL to 30.9 ng/g and 11.3 to 82.3 ng/g, and from < MDL to 1.73 ng/g, 0.21 to 12.5 ng/g and 0.46 to 41.9 ng/g in bivalves and surface sediments, respectively. The concentration ranges of predominantly anthropogenic Cu, Pb and Zn were 3.08–866 μg/g, 0.08–1.46 μg/g and 22.9–4380 μg/g in bivalve soft parts and 1.01–111 mg/g, 0.420–134 μg/g and 1.96–277 μg/g in surface sediments, respectively. Mercury concentrations ranged from 0.290 to 7.02 μg/g and from 0.096 to 0.565 μg/g in both matrices. The relatively high Hg concentrations found in bivalves from two stations in Bahia Samana, near to a known source of past Hg contamination in the sediments, require a more in-depth survey of the area. In general the concentrations of selected chlorinated hydrocarbons and trace metals, compared with those reported for the same matrices in the Caribbean and west Atlantic coastal areas, show at present the existence of only very localized contamination problems in the Dominican Republic.     

LES ROCHES ERUPTIVES POST-PALEOZOIQUES DU NORD DE LA CHINE

Les Ioches dont l'etude petrograpmque par M. Lacroix fait l'objet principal de la communication suivante, ont ete recueillies, soit par M. Lacroix lui-meme, soit par M. G. B. Barbour, soit surtout par nous-memes. (P. Teilhard     

Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

Land use and land cover (LULC) over Africa have changed substantially over the last 60 years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties of model simulated response in the African monsoon system and Sahel precipitation due to LULC change using a set of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Although the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature. The relationship between the model responses to LULC change and the climatologists of the control simulations is also examined. Simulations that are climatologically too dry or too wet compared to observations and reanalyses have weak response to land use change because they are in moisture or energy limited regimes respectively. The ones that lie in between have stronger response to the LULC changes, showing a more significant role in land–atmosphere interactions. Much of the change in precipitation is related to changes in circulation, particularly to the response of the intensity and latitudinal position of the African Easterly Jet, which varies with the changes in meridional surface temperature gradients. The study highlights the need for measurements of the surface fluxes across the meridional cross-section of the Sahel to evaluate models and thereby allowing human impacts such as land use change on the monsoon to be projected more realistically.