Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.     

ASPI experiment: measurements of fields and waves on board the INTERBALL-1 spacecraft

The plasma-wave experiment ASPI (analysis of spectra of plasma waves and instabilities) on board the INTERBALL spacecraft is a combined wave diagnostics experiment. It performs measurements of the DC and AC magnetic field vector by flux-gate and searchcoil sensors, the DC and AC electric field vector by Langmuir double probes and the plasma current by Langmuir split probe. Preliminary data analysis shows the low noise levels of the sensors and the compatibility of new data with the results of previous missions. During several months of in-orbit operation a rich collection of data was acquired, examples of which at the magnetopause and plasma sheet are presented in second part of the paper.     

Isolation,biodegradation ability and molecular detection of hydrocarbon degrading bacteria in petroleum samples from a Brazilian offshore basin

The detection of microorganisms with potential for biodeterioration and biodegradation in petroleum fields is of great relevance, since these organisms may be related to a decrease in petroleum quality in the reservoirs or damage in the production facilities. In this sense, petroleum formation water and oil samples were collected from the Campos Basin, Brazil, with the aim of isolating microorganisms and evaluating their ability to degrade distinct classes of hydrocarbon biomarkers (9,10-dihydrophenanthrene, phytane, nonadecanoic acid and 5α-cholestane). Twenty eight bacterial isolates were recovered and identified by sequencing their 16S rRNA genes. Biodegradation assays revealed that bacterial metabolism of hydrocarbons occurred through reactions based on oxidation, carbon–carbon bond cleavage and generation of new bonds or by the physical incorporation of hydrocarbons into microbial cell walls. Based on the biodegradation results, selective PCR-based systems were developed for direct detection in petroleum samples of bacterial groups of interest, namely Bacillus spp., Micrococcus spp., Achromobacter xylosoxidans, Dietzia spp. and Bacillus pumilus. Primer sets targeting 16S rRNA genes were designed and their specificity was confirmed in silico (i.e. computational analysis) and in PCR reactions using DNA from reference strains as positive and negative controls. Total DNA from oil was purified and the amplification tests revealed the presence of the target bacteria in the samples, unraveling a significant potential for petroleum deterioration in the reservoirs sampled, once proper conditions are present for hydrocarbon degradation. The application of molecular methods for rapid detection of specific microorganisms in environmental samples would be valuable as a supporting tool for the evaluation of oil quality in production reservoirs.     

渭干河流域"2002·7"特大洪水分析

渭干河是塔里木河流域第六大源流, 位于天山西部南麓, 渭干河干流起点有新疆最大的流域性控制工程--克孜尔水库. 2002年7月下旬天山中西部山区出现大暴雨(雪)过程, 渭干河流域山区降水持续时间长达30 h以上, 山区降水量50 mm左右, 导致5条支流和渭干河干流出现有水文记录以来的最大洪峰, 流量超过警戒流量和危险流量的2～3.5倍, 暴雨(雪)过程结束之后, 融雪型洪峰长时间居高不下. 洪水过程中, 各支流以及暴雨与融雪等多种洪峰遭遇现象很明显. 克孜尔水库入库洪峰流量达3 660 m3*s-1, 经水库调洪错峰, 出库峰值流量为1 000 m3*s-1, 削峰率72.7%.     

Elucidation of different forms of organic carbon in marine sediments from the Atlantic coast of Spain using thermal analysis coupled to isotope ratio and quadrupole mass spectrometry

Analysis of river, estuary and marine sediments from the Atlantic coast of Spain using thermogravimetry–differential scanning calorimetry–quadrupole mass spectrometry–isotope ratio mass spectrometry (TG–DSC–QMS–IRMS) was used to (a) distinguish bulk chemical hosts for C within a sediment and humic acid fraction, (b) track C pools with differing natural C isotope ratios and (c) observe variation with distance from the coast. This is the first application of such a novel method to the characterisation of organic matter from marine sediments and their corresponding humic acid fractions. Using thermal analysis, a labile, a recalcitrant and a refractory carbon pool can be distinguished. Extracted humic fractions are mainly of recalcitrant nature. The proportion of refractory carbon is greatest in marine sediments and humic acid fractions. Quadrupole mass spectrometry confirmed that the greatest proportion of m/z 44 (CO₂) and m/z 18 (H₂O) were detected at temperatures associated with recalcitrant carbon (510–540 °C). Isotope analysis detected progressive enrichment in δ¹³C for the sediment samples with an increase in marine influence. Isotopic heterogeneity in the refractory organic matter in marine sediments could be due to products of anthropogenic origin or natural combustion products. Isotope homogeneity of humic acids confirms the presence of terrigenous C in marine sediments, allowing the terrestrial input to be characterised.     

Influence of basement structures on the evolution of the major sedimentary basins of Brazil: A case of tectonic heritage

The present study deals with the correlation between the geotectonic features of the basement and the internal structure, shape, geologic evolution, etc. of the major sedimentary basins of the South American platform. The Paraná, Parnaíba and Amazonas basins occupy an area of the order of 3.6 × 10⁶ km², and their sedimentary cratonic sequences were deposited from Silurian to Triassic times. Subsidence rates are estimated around 15 m/Ma in the main depocenters.A geologic study was carried out along the basement features in the surroundings of such basins in order to identify the major structural, geotectonic and geochronological discontinuities. The extension of these basement characteristics towards the interior of the basins are examined. Basement core samples from deep wells were investigated through petrological and geochronological analyses, and pre-existing geophysical and structural maps of those basins were taken again into consideration.It can be concluded that many of the identified basement discontinuities display a direct influence on the depositional history of the basins as well as on their internal subdivisions and external outlines. Basement structures generated during the late Precambrian Brasiliano Cycle turned out to be particularly important.The Paraná and Parnaíba basins are considered to represent cratonic basins, located on rigid lithosphere, tectonically stabilized in the latest Precambrian/early Palaeozoic, and their subsidence is attributed to the establishement of some initial rifted grabens. The Amazonas basin is more complex and includes three large sub-basins with distinct evolutions, each located on a different tectonic segment of the basement.     

NMR Measurements in Carbonate Rocks: Problems and an Approach to a Solution

Carbonate rocks are well known for their complex petrophysical behavior where, in contrast to siliciclastic rocks, different parameters, including porosity and permeability, usually are not directly related. This behavior is the result of thorough reorganization of porosity during diagenesis, and it turns prediction of reservoir quality of carbonate rocks into a challenge. The study presented here deals with the problem of utilizing NMR techniques in prediction of petrophysical properties in carbonates.We employ a visual porosity classification as a priori knowledge for better interpreting NMR data for prediction purposes. This allows for choice of suitable T₂ cutoff values to differentiate movable from bound fluids adapted for the specific carbonate rock, thus resulting in better interpretation of NMR data. The approach of using a genetic pore type classification for adapting the conventional method for T₂ cutoff determination, which originally was developed for siliciclastic rocks, is promising. Similarly, for permeability determination on the basis of NMR measurements, the classification of carbonate rocks based on porosity types also shows potential. The approach implemented here has the promise to provide a basis of standardized interpretation of NMR data from carbonate rocks.Acknowledgment We are grateful to Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, for permission to publish the results of this work. This study was part of I.S.s Masters Thesis at Hannover University that was carried out in collaboration with Baker Hughes INTEQ, Celle, Germany. We appreciate comments of an anonymous referee and PAGEOPH editor Brian J. Mitchell.     

Surficial and Deep Earth Material Prediction from Geochemical Compositions

Prediction of true classes of surficial and deep earth materials using multivariate spatial data is a common challenge for geoscience modelers. Most geological processes leave a footprint that can be explored by geochemical data analysis. These footprints are normally complex statistical and spatial patterns buried deep in the high-dimensional compositional space. This paper proposes a spatial predictive model for classification of surficial and deep earth materials derived from the geochemical composition of surface regolith. The model is based on a combination of geostatistical simulation and machine learning approaches. A random forest predictive model is trained, and features are ranked based on their contribution to the predictive model. To generate potential and uncertainty maps, compositional data are simulated at unsampled locations via a chain of transformations (isometric log-ratio transformation followed by the flow anamorphosis) and geostatistical simulation. The simulated results are subsequently back-transformed to the original compositional space. The trained predictive model is used to estimate the probability of classes for simulated compositions. The proposed approach is illustrated through two case studies. In the first case study, the major crustal blocks of the Australian continent are predicted from the surface regolith geochemistry of the National Geochemical Survey of Australia project. The aim of the second case study is to discover the superficial deposits (peat) from the regional-scale soil geochemical data of the Tellus Project. The accuracy of the results in these two case studies confirms the usefulness of the proposed method for geological class prediction and geological process discovery.

     

Performance of the Italian strong motion network during the 2009, L��Aquila seismic sequence (central Italy)

On April 6, 2009, the town of L’Aquila in the Abruzzo region (central Italy) was struck by a seismic event at 01:32 (UTC), of magnitude M_W = 6.3. The mainshock was followed by a long period of intense seismic activity and within seven days after the mainshock there were seven events of magnitude M_W ≥ 5 that occurred from April 6 to April 13. This long seismic sequence was characterized by a complex rupture mechanism that involved two major normal faults of the central Apennines: the Paganica and the Gorzano faults. The strong-motions of the mainshock were recorded by 64 stations of the Italian Strong-motion Network (RAN) operated by the National Civil Protection Department (DPC). Six stations of a local strong-motion array were working in NW L’Aquila suburb area. One of them, located at about 6 km from the Paganica fault surface tip-line, set up in trigger mode, recorded continuously for more than 20 min the mainshock and the aftershocks. Besides the mainshock, the RAN stations recorded in total 78 foreshocks and aftershocks of M_L ≥ 3.5, during the period from January to December 2009. The corresponding waveforms provide the most extensive digital strong ground motion data set ever recorded in Italy. Moreover, the 48 three-component observations of events of magnitude M_W ≥ 5, recorded at a distance less than 15 km from each of the major involved faults, provide a significant increasing of near-field records available for the Italian territory. Six days after the mainshock, the strong-motion dataset, referred to preliminary locations of the events with M_L ≥ 4.0, was made available on the DPC web site () and at the same time it was delivered to the ITACA database (). This dataset has been used by many authors in scientific papers and by engineers, geophysicists and geologists for professional technical works. In this paper, the present-day available strong-motion signals from the L’Aquila sequence and the performance of the Italian strong-motion network in terms of the number and quality of recorded data, the geometry and data transmission system are described. In addition the role of the temporary network that represents an extension of the permanent Italian strong-motion network, supporting the emergency response by civil protection authorities and improving the network coverage has been evaluated.