Entropy‐based equation to assess hillslope sediment production

A new equation to assess hillslope sediment production, based on physical and probabilistic approaches, is presented. The equation, which allows the computation of the delivery ratio for every event, considers the physical variables of travel distance, stream power, settling velocity and gross erosion. The probability density function that arises from the new formulation is solved using the principle of maximum entropy. Based on data from five watersheds in both tropical and temperate zones, the new delivery parameter K_v is calibrated and associated with vegetation cover and conservation practice. The proposed equation is rationally based in relation to parameter K_v. The entropy‐based equation was applied to assess sediment yield in two other experimental watersheds, showing good predictability for the set (mean absolute error of 20·8%). No systematic error was found in the analysed data. The entropy‐based equation showed good predictability for long‐term sets of data and for high‐erosivity events, but did not perform well for the low‐erosivity ones. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Numerical simulation of the diurnal cycle of rainfall in SW Amazon basin during the 1999 rainy season: the role of convective trigger function

In continental areas, the maximum rainfall simulated with the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) occurs around 4?h earlier than the one observed with rain gauges. This work presents the successful implementation of a new convective trigger function (CTF) in the convective parameterization scheme used in BRAMS that corrects this misfit between model and observations. The importance of the CTF formulation on the diurnal cycle of rainfall over the Amazon Basin is reflected by the following numbers: Over Rondonia (SW Amazonia), the original version of BRAMS simulates the maximum rainfall at 1400 UTC (1000 LST), with the new CTF maximum shifting to 1800?UTC (1400?LST), while the S-band radar rainfall maximum is at 1900?UTC (1500?LST). This is attributed to two factors: (1) the new CTF is now coupled to the sensible and latent heat fluxes at surface; (2) during the early morning, the convective available potential energy is reduced.     

Distribution and effectiveness of nivation in Mediterranean mountains: Peñalara (Spain)

Snow accumulation is responsible for geomorphic and biogeographic processes taking place in the southern sector of the Peñalara massif in central Spain (40°51′N, 3°57′W; max. altitude 2428 m at Pico de Peñalara). This work compares the intensity of nivation on the eastern slope, leeward of the prevailing westerly winds and heavily eroded by glacial activity during the Pleistocene, to that of the western slope on the windward side, unaffected by glacial erosion and completely covered by a thick weathering mantle. On the eastern slope, nivation is effective only where the weathering mantle is exposed or on morainic formations. It does not occur on the landforms derived from glacial erosion. In contrast, the western side shows almost no evidence of snow action except where catastrophic mass movements have altered the regularity of the slope. During the post-glacial epoch, nivation cirques formed in the scars left by mass wasting. In the last 30 years, spring temperatures have increased and this activity has diminished. The pattern of evolution observed at Peñalara can be extrapolated to other Mediterranean mountains with similar characteristics such as marginal glacial activity during the Pleistocene, unconsolidated formations on the summits caused by chemical weathering, and dry, hot summers that can increase the effectiveness of nivation.     

Melt extraction pathways and stagnation depths beneath the Madeira and Desertas rift zones (NE Atlantic) inferred from barometric studies

The Madeira and Desertas Islands (eastern North Atlantic) show well-developed rift zones which intersect near the eastern tip of Madeira (São Lourenço peninsula). We applied fluid inclusion barometry and clinopyroxene-melt thermobarometry to reconstruct levels of magma stagnation beneath the two adjacent rifts and to examine a possible genetic relationship during their evolution. Densities of CO₂-dominated fluid inclusions in basanitic to basaltic samples from São Lourenço yielded frequency maxima at pressures of 0.57–0.87 GPa (23–29 km depth) and 0.25–0.32 GPa (8–10 km), whereas basanites, basalts and xenoliths from the Desertas indicate 0.3–0.72 GPa (10–24 km) and 0.07–0.12 GPa (2–3 km). Clinopyroxene-melt thermobarometry applied to Ti-augite phenocryst rim and glass/groundmass compositions indicates pressures of 0.45–1.06 GPa (15–35 km; São Lourenço) and 0.53–0.89 GPa (17–28 km; Desertas Islands) which partly overlap with pressures indicated by fluid inclusions. We interpret our data to suggest a multi-stage magma ascent beneath the Madeira Archipelago: main fractionation occurs at multiple levels within the mantle (>15 km depth) and is followed by temporary stagnation within the crust prior to eruption. Depths of crustal magma stagnation beneath São Lourenço and the Desertas differ significantly, and there is no evidence for a common shallow magma reservoir feeding both rift arms. We discuss two models to explain the relations between the two adjacent rift systems: Madeira and the Desertas may represent either a two-armed rift system or two volcanic centres with separate magma supply systems. For petrological and volcanological reasons, we favour the second model and suggest that Madeira and the Desertas root in distinct regions of melt extraction. Magma focusing into the Desertas system off the hotspot axis may result from lithospheric bending caused by the load of the Madeira and Porto Santo shields, combined with regional variations in melt production due to an irregularly shaped plume.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article if you access the article at . A link in the frame on the left on that page takes you directly to the supplementary material.Editorial responsibility: J. Hoefs     

U–Pb zircon chronostratigraphy of early-Pliocene ignimbrites from La Pacana, north Chile: implications for the formation of stratified magma chambers

High spatial resolution U–Pb dates of zircons from two consanguineous ignimbrites of contrasting composition, the high-silica rhyolitic Toconao and the overlying dacitic Atana ignimbrites, erupted from La Pacana caldera, north Chile, are presented in this study. Zircons from Atana and Toconao pumice clasts yield apparent ²³⁸U/²⁰⁶Pb ages of 4.11±0.20 Ma and 4.65±0.13 Ma (2σ), respectively. These data combined with previously published geochemical and stratigraphic data, reveal that the two ignimbrites were erupted from a stratified magma chamber. The Atana zircon U–Pb ages closely agree with the eruption age of Atana previously determined by K–Ar dating (4.0±0.1 Ma) and do not support long (>1 Ma) residence times. Xenocrystic zircons were found only in the Toconao bulk ignimbrite, which were probably entrained during eruption and transport. Apparent ²³⁸U/²⁰⁶Pb zircon ages of 13 Ma in these xenocrysts provide the first evidence that the onset of felsic magmatism within the Altiplano–Puna ignimbrite province occurred approximately 3 Myr earlier than previously documented.     

In-flight performance analysis of the CHAMP BlackJack GPS Receiver

JPL's BlackJack receiver currently represents the most widely used geodetic grade GPS receiver for space applications. Using data from the CHAMP science mission, the in-flight performance of the BlackJack receiver has been assessed and the impact of various software updates performed during the 2.5 years since launch is described. Key aspects of the study comprise the channel allocation, anomalous data points, and the noise level of the code and carrier data. In addition, it has been demonstrated that the code measurements collected onboard the CHAMP satellite are notably affected by multipath errors in the aft-looking hemisphere, which can be attributed to cross-talk between the occultation antenna string and the primary precise orbit determination antenna. For carrier smoothed 10 s normal points, the code noise itself varies between a minimum of 5 cm at high elevations and 0.5 m (C/A) to 1.0 m (P₁, P₂) at 10° elevation. Carrier-phase data exhibit representative errors of 0.2 to 2.5 mm. The results of the CHAMP GPS data analysis contribute to a better understanding and possible improvement of the BlackJack receiver and support the design of optimal data editing and weighting strategies in precise orbit determination applications.     

Modeling monthly mean air temperature for Brazil

Air temperature is one of the main weather variables influencing agriculture around the world. Its availability, however, is a concern, mainly in Brazil where the weather stations are more concentrated on the coastal regions of the country. Therefore, the present study had as an objective to develop models for estimating monthly and annual mean air temperature for the Brazilian territory using multiple regression and geographic information system techniques. Temperature data from 2,400 stations distributed across the Brazilian territory were used, 1,800 to develop the equations and 600 for validating them, as well as their geographical coordinates and altitude as independent variables for the models. A total of 39 models were developed, relating the dependent variables maximum, mean, and minimum air temperatures (monthly and annual) to the independent variables latitude, longitude, altitude, and their combinations. All regression models were statistically significant (α?≤?0.01). The monthly and annual temperature models presented determination coefficients between 0.54 and 0.96. We obtained an overall spatial correlation higher than 0.9 between the models proposed and the 16 major models already published for some Brazilian regions, considering a total of 3.67?×?10⁸?pixels evaluated. Our national temperature models are recommended to predict air temperature in all Brazilian territories.