The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

冕流与日冕物质抛射的关系

本文研究了卡林顿自转周１５９１ － １５９２ 中冕流偏振亮度的变化。冕流带偏振亮度的分布是不均匀的,不均匀度为１０ ％ － ５０ ％ 。无日冕物质抛射影响存在时,沿冕流带冕流的分布可持续稳定存在近两个太阳自转周。当一个日冕物质抛射伴随冕流产生时,冕流的经向角大小若大于２７°,可导致冕流尖角区顶部上升速度大于２ｋｍ／ｓ。     

城市化对北京地区日照时数和云量变化趋势的影响

利用1961～2008年北京城区和郊区12个台站的气候观测资料,采用趋势分析和累积距平的方法,研究了北京城区和郊区近48年的日照时数、总云量及低云量的年际和四季变化趋势,并探讨了城市化进程对日照和云量变化的影响。结果表明：近48年来,城区的总云量和日照时数呈减少趋势,但低云量呈增加趋势;郊区的总云量和低云量呈增加趋势,而日照时数呈减少趋势;具体到年代变化,1980年代初以后,城区总云量呈减少趋势,且1990年代减少的趋势最为明显,2000年后,城区总云量变化发生逆转,呈显著增加趋势。对于低云量,1960年代到1980年代,城区郊区低云量呈波动减少趋势,而1990年代到2000年代后呈波动增加趋势。对于日照时数,1960年代到1980年代城区郊区日照时数均呈增加趋势,1990年代至2000年代则呈明显减少的趋势。低云量与日照时数表现出明显负相关特征,这与北京城市化发展对区域气候的影响有密切的关系。     

卡尔曼滤波在InSAR噪声消除与相位解缠中的应用

相位解缠作为InSAR技术中的关键步骤,一直是研究的难点和热点。通常的相位解缠方法在相位解缠前首先必须进行噪声消除,而卡尔曼滤波将相位解缠问题转化为状态估计问题,实现了相位解缠与噪声消除一并处理,成为一种相位解缠新途径。并提出了卡尔曼滤波在相位解缠与噪声抑制中的一种新算法。     

煤层气直井产气曲线特征及其与储层条件匹配性

煤层气产气曲线类型与地质条件的匹配与否直接影响产气效果。以沁水盆地柿庄南区块排采4 a以上的直井为研究对象,在产气曲线类型划分基础上,分析不同产气曲线特征,进一步分析产气曲线与储层参数的匹配性。结果表明：研究区产气曲线可划分为单峰快速上升、单峰稳定上升、双峰后低和双峰后高4种类型。产气曲线所表现出的特征受控于储层原始渗透率,储层动力及压裂效果。单峰快速上升型适用于含气量大于12 m³/d、临储比大于0.4和渗透率大于0.1×10^-3 μm²的储层,该种曲线容易造成产气量的骤降;单峰稳定上升型适用的储层条件广泛,与储层参数匹配性较高;双峰后低型产气效果整体不佳,与储层参数的匹配性差;双峰后高型适用于压裂效果较好的井、对储层原始参数要求较低,其后峰产气量的增加速率影响整体的排采效果。基于上述分析,将储层划分为七种类型,对研究区及其相邻区块实施\     

柴达木盆地那棱格勒河及其尾闾盐湖锂成矿物源：来自水化学和锶、硫同位素证据

柴达木盆地那棱格勒河尾闾盐湖(一里坪干盐滩、东台吉乃尔盐湖、西台吉乃尔盐湖和察尔汗盐湖别勒滩区段)赋存了我国目前最大的卤水锂矿床。那棱格勒河及其尾闾盐湖锂的物源仍存在一定争议,主要有围岩风化、古湖残留、含盐系地层淋滤、油田水、深部水等,目前缺乏有力的地球化学证据。本文系统采集了那棱格勒河流域及其尾闾盐湖不同水体样品16件,分析了其主、微量元素含量及锶、硫同位素组成。结合前人的研究成果,对区域水体中锂的来源进行了探讨,得出结论如下:那棱格勒河水锂含量(0.45～0.79 mg/L)比楚拉克阿拉干河支流(0.00～0.05 mg/L)高出一个数量级,其高锂含量主要受洪水河支流的补给;洪水河高锂含量与其上游热泉水的补给有关,该热泉水锂、锶含量高、⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr比值偏高,δ³⁴S值偏低,与青藏高原典型热泉水地球化学特征(锂含量0.4～34.8 mg/L,锶含量0.07～4.24 mg/L,⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr比值0.71224～0.71259,δ³⁴S值-10....     

二维任意倾斜地层的层速度计算结果分析

本文主要介绍沙赫(Shan,P.M.)公式,对二维任意倾斜地层的层速度计算的应用效果。依据实际地层剖面Φ、V、Z参数的可能变化,设计18个较为复杂的地层模型进行了大量试算,并与Dix公式计算结果作了对比,表明对任意倾斜地层应采用沙赫公式提取层速度才是适宜的。     

An Analytical Solution for Mechanical Responses Induced by Temperature and Air Pressure in a Lined Rock Cavern for Underground Compressed Air Energy Storage

Mechanical responses induced by temperature and air pressure significantly affect the stability and durability of underground compressed air energy storage (CAES) in a lined rock cavern. An analytical solution for evaluating such responses is, thus, proposed in this paper. The lined cavern of interest consists of three layers, namely, a sealing layer, a concrete lining and the host rock. Governing equations for cavern temperature and air pressure, which involve heat transfer between the air and surrounding layers, are established first. Then, Laplace transform and superposition principle are applied to obtain the temperature around the lined cavern and the air pressure during the operational period. Afterwards, a thermo-elastic axisymmetrical model is used to analytically determine the stress and displacement variations induced by temperature and air pressure. The developments of temperature, displacement and stress during a typical operational cycle are discussed on the basis of the proposed approach. The approach is subsequently verified with a coupled compressed air and thermo-mechanical numerical simulation and by a previous study on temperature. Finally, the influence of temperature on total stress and displacement and the impact of the heat transfer coefficient are discussed. This paper shows that the temperature sharply fluctuates only on the sealing layer and the concrete lining. The resulting tensile hoop stresses on the sealing layer and concrete lining are considerably large in comparison with the initial air pressure. Moreover, temperature has a non-negligible effect on the lined cavern for underground compressed air storage. Meanwhile, temperature has a greater effect on hoop and longitudinal stress than on radial stress and displacement. In addition, the heat transfer coefficient affects the cavern stress to a higher degree than the displacement.     

地质雷达及其在环境地质中的应用

本文结合近几年联邦德国在环境地质方面的研究工作对地质雷达在环境工程领域中的应用范围及其局限性作了简要总结,文中并介绍了地质雷达技术的方法原理及存在问题。     

Design of environmental decision support system and its application to water quality management

1 IntroductionEnvironmental decision support systems could be divided into two categories by their organizational form and system functions. One is regional environmental analytical system based on commercial GIS and assisted by environmental models, such as BASINS developed by the American NEPA using ARC/VIEW as its user platform and including QUAL2E and NPSM as its prediction tools. The other is environmental information and prediction system based on mathematical models, such as…