Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

青藏高原东北缘海原弧形构造区地壳电性结构探测研究

对青藏高原东北缘海原弧形构造区（105deg;～107deg;E，36deg;～37.5deg;N）的5条大地电磁测深剖面进行处理分析和二维反演，得到研究区内东西宽约160 km、深约60 km范围的地壳电性细结构. 结果表明: 研究区呈现南西——北东的带状分布特征. 由南西——北东可分为6个电性区块，依次为西吉盆地(Ⅰ)、西、 南华山隆起(Ⅱ)、兴仁堡-海原盆地(Ⅲ)、中卫-清水河盆地(Ⅳ)、中宁-红寺堡盆地(Ⅴ)和鄂尔多斯西缘带(Ⅵ). 各区块在平面上呈北西撒开、 南东收缩的ldquo;扫帚状rdquo;形态；弧形构造区弧顶附近构造完整、规模大，自弧顶向北西、南东两端构造规模逐渐减小. 地表到深度10 km左右，西、南华山隆起和鄂尔多斯西缘带呈高阻特性，西吉、兴仁堡-海原、中卫——清水河和中宁-红寺堡4个盆地的电阻率较低且呈盆地凹陷形状. 其中兴仁堡-海原盆地电性基底最深，显示为南西深北东浅的ldquo;簸箕状rdquo;起伏形态. 研究区发育不连续的壳内低阻带，与该区中、强震活动密切相关. 1920年海原大震区存在明显的电性结构差异，震区南西侧和上部区域为相对高阻，北东侧和下部区域为相对低阻.      

地震快速数据发布系统

利用成熟的、性能优异的GMT和SAC作为后台处理软件，并辅以MySQL数据库系统来管理数据。实现了地震快速数据的自动、及时发布。     

Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model: A case study of the Heihe River drainage basin (1944?2005)

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge (1944–2005) and the Zhengyi Gorge (1954–2005), which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m3/s·10y; (2) annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m3/s·10y; (3) prediction results show that: during 2006–2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m3/s·10y and 1.61 m3/s·10y; (4) the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.     

Cenozoic uplift of West Qinling, northeast margin of Tibetan plateau-a detrital apatite fission track record from the Tianshui basin

The Cenozoic sedimentation in the Tianshui basin, which is located at the junction of the liupanshan and West Qinling, northeast margin of the Tibetan plateau, provides a record for the regional tectonism and exhumation history of the surrounding mountains. Thermochronologic study on the detrital apatite grains from sandstones at Yaodian, near Tianshui, has revealed two rapid tectonic uplift-exhumation events of the source area, which happened at 23.7 and 14.1 Ma, respectively. The fast exhumation (0.34 mm/a) at 23.7 Ma, which recorded the tectonic uplift of West Qinling, led to the formation of the Neogene Tianshui basin and initiated the reception of alluvial deposits. This event is most likely in response to the synchronous tectonism of the Tibetan plateau. The source region experienced another rapid exhumation (1.05 mm/a) at 14.1 Ma, when the Tianshui basin began to depress broadly and fluvial-lacustrine sediments dominated the Late Miocene. Translated from Acta Sedimentologica Sinica, 2006, 24(6): 783–789 [译自: 沉积学报]     

土壤侵蚀治理范式与生态学理论的耦合关系

目前土壤侵蚀已经成为全球普遍关注的环境问题, 土壤侵蚀治理范式是近年水土保持研 究中的一个热点。本文探讨了“范式”在科学研究中的变迁过程以及对土壤侵蚀防治的重要意义, 并且讨论了土壤侵蚀防治范式与生态学范式之间的耦合关系, 指出生态学思想对土壤侵蚀科学 的发展有重要的借鉴作用, 强调在进行土壤侵蚀研究过程中必须考虑生态因子。土壤侵蚀过程和 生态过程是相互渗透在一起, 它们之间所表现的是相辅相成的耦合关系, 生态学中的自然均衡思 想、系统非平衡态理论、等级缀块动态理论都深刻的影响着土壤侵蚀科学的发展并且都得到不同 程度的应用。在土壤侵蚀研究过程中必须重视生态环境平衡思想。     

Characteristics and method of synthesis seismic wave based on wavelet reconstruction

A novel method of synthesizing seismic wave using wavelet reconstruction is proposed and compared with the traditional method of using theory of Fourier transform. By adjusting the frequency band energy and taking it as criterion, the formula of synthesizing seismic wave is deduced. Using the design parameters specified in Chinese Seismic Design Code for buildings, seismic waves are synthesized. Moreover, the method of selecting wavelet bases in synthesizing seismic wave and the influence of the damping ratio on synthesizing results are analyzed. The results show that the synthesis seismic waves using wavelet bases can represent the characteristics of the seismic wave as well as the ground characteristic period, and have good time-frequency non-stationary.     

高压旋喷技术在基坑护壁与止水工程中的应用

长沙天都大厦工程围护墙先后采用2套方案施工,实践证明,采用高压旋喷单管双液分喷法具有设备简单;投资少;操作容易,施工速度快;桩间搭接严密,固结体强度高;适用范围广等优点,尤其在处理软弱地基、基坑支护和止水工程中显示出有效性、可靠性和优越性。该方法再经进一步完善,将具广阔的推广前景。     

青藏高原臭氧的ENSO

通过对臭氧卫星观测资料及大气环流资料的分析，研究了青藏高原上空臭氧年际变化中的 ＥＮＳＯ信号，并与同纬度无山区及赤道地区进行比较。研究指出：在 Ｅ１ Ｎｉｎｏ年（ＳＯＩ指数为负）青藏高原臭氧总量增加，在 Ｌａ Ｎｉｎａ年（ＳＯＩ指数为正）青藏高原臭氧总量减小。本文同时讨论了与ＥＮＳＯ事件有关的大气环流物质输送。     

斯堪的那维亚臭氧亏损和地面加热

对ＮＡＳＡ的ＴＯＭＳ臭氧资料进行分析后指出：冬季在北极的斯堪的那维亚地区存在一个明显的臭氧亏损区，亏损区的中心值达－５０ ＤＵ，相当于该区域平均值的 １５％。对臭氧亏损和北大西洋海温的东西向差异作相关分析得到：其季节变化的相关系数为－０．９６，逐月（ １６８个月）变化的相关系数为－０．７０。同样对臭氧亏损与地面加热进行相关分析后指出：斯堪的那维亚地区的臭氧亏损和该地区地面的热通量关系极其密切，其相关系数均在－０．８７以上。由此我们认为：北大西洋暖流向北输送能量，引起斯堪的纳维亚地区地面加热，由此造成了冬季该地区的臭氧亏损。