气象服务需求的理论研究

气象服务需求是气象经济学中亟待深入研究的问题。从经济学的需求意义上,立足于气象服务实践,提出气象服务需求主体与需求客体,进而把需求主体划分为政府和企业,把需求客体划分为公共产品和服务商品。并在此基础上,重点剖析制约公共气象服务产品的需求因素和制约气象商品的需求因素     

Holocene sea-level changes and crustal movements in Morecambe Bay,northwest England

Holocene stratigraphy from Skelwith Pool, on the northern side of Morecambe Bay, is described. Diatom and pollen analyses and radiocarbon dating have been undertaken for three sampling sites, from which eight sea-level index points have been obtained. These index points come from a small homogeneous area and similar palaeoenvironments. Some published sea-level index points from Morecambe Bay have been re-evaluated and validated by means of diatom analysis. An enhanced sea-level database with 28 index points has been used for the reconstruction of Holocene sea-level history. Relative sea-level rose rapidly around 6870–6510 BC at a maximum rate of +36.7 mm yr⁻¹. Subsequently, the rate of sea-level change has varied between −8 mm yr⁻¹ and +12 mm yr⁻¹. The rate of relative sea-level changes for the last 3500 years is not clear. Uplift driven by deglaciation is believed to have been interrupted in the early Holocene by a rapid rise in relative sea-level. Uplift restarted at 6510 BC but soon declined as glacio-isostatic recovery ended around 3800 BC in the Morecambe Bay area. Since then, crustal movements in the Morecambe Bay area have been minimal. Factors affecting the attitudes of the index points such as sediment compaction of the basal peat and variations in palaeotidal range during the Holocene have been considered. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of attenuation and dispersion of propagating wave due to the coexistence of three fluid phases in the pore volume

In exploration geophysics, the efforts to extract subsurface information from wave characteristics exceedingly depend on the construction of suitable rock physics model. Analysis of different rock physics models reveals that the strength and magnitude of attenuation and dispersion of propagating wave exceedingly depend on wave-induced fluid flow at multiple scales. In current work, a comprehensive analysis of wave attenuation and velocity dispersion is carried out at broad frequency range. Our methodology is based on Biot's poroelastic relations, by which variations in wave characteristics associated with wave-induced fluid flow due to the coexistence of three fluid phases in the pore volume is estimated. In contrast to the results of previous research, our results indicate the occurrence of two-time pore pressure relaxation phenomenon at the interface between fluids of disparate nature, that is, different bulk modulus, viscosity and density. Also, the obtained results are compatible with numerical results for the same 1D model which are accounted using Biot's poroelastic and quasi-static equation in frequency domain. Moreover, the effects of change in saturation of three-phase fluids were also computed which is the key task for geophysicist. The outcomes of our research reveal that pore pressure relaxation phenomenon significantly depends on the saturation of distinct fluids and the order of saturating fluids. It is also concluded that the change in the saturation of three-phase fluid significantly influences the characteristics of the seismic wave. The analysis of obtained results indicates that our proposed approach is a useful tool for quantification, identification and discrimination of different fluid phases. Moreover, our proposed approach improves the accuracy to predict dispersive behaviour of propagating wave at sub-seismic and seismic frequencies.     

Seabed erosion and deposition related to the typhoon activity of the past millennium on the southeast coast of China

Catastrophic events often interrupt long-term Earth surface processes. In coastal areas, although millennial-scale trends of climatic and sea-level changes determine the trajectory of sedimentary landform evolution, storm and/or tsunami activity can cause abrupt changes in depositional conditions that may alter the long-term sedimentary processes. Here, we report a sedimentary hiatus that is widely observed from the late Holocene sedimentary sequence at the seabed along the southeast China coast. This hiatus was discovered by close temporal sedimentary and radiocarbon dating analyses of a seabed sedimentary sequence in the mouth area of the Pearl River estuary. The results suggest that a couple of metres in the middle to late Holocene sediment at the seabed were eroded by a catastrophic event happening c. 1000–800 cal. Years BP. In theory, a mega-tsunami generated from the Manila Trench could have caused such erosion at the seabed, but there is a lack of direct geological and historical evidence to support such a hypothesis. Much more likely, a super-typhoon struck the coast and caused the erosion. This hypothesis is strongly supported by the region's historical and geological records, which suggest a period characteristic of intense typhoons ranging from the Medieval Warm Period to the climate transition phase (c. 1000–600 cal. Years BP). During the subsequent Little Ice Age, deposition of sandy sediment continued, suggesting frequent but weaker typhoon activity. Over the past two centuries the deposition of sandy sediment and gravels began, implying the beginning of a phase of intensifying typhoon conditions, possibly a result of the recent warming climate. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

河南栾川西沟铅锌银金矿床三维地质建模与深部找矿预测评价

随着矿区浅部矿的日益减少,深部找矿越来越受到重视,三维地质建模技术在成矿预测、资源定量评价等方面得到了广泛的应用.本文利用三维地质建模平台GOCAD中的三维建模技术及地质统计学等方法,基于收集测试得到的地质图、钻孔和采样点的地层、岩性、构造、品位等数据,构建了西沟铅锌银金矿区的三维地质模型,包括断裂构造模型、矿体模型及...     

Numerical analysis of the forces exerted on offshore structures by ship waves

Ship-generated waves can contribute to the fatigue of offshore structures. This paper presents a numerical model for evaluating the forces exerted on a nearby fixed structure by ship-generated waves. The ship waves were modeled using Michell's thin-ship theory (Wigley waves), and the forces were computed using a boundary element method in the time domain. The simulation was validated by comparing its results with those of frequency-domain methods reported in the literature. It was then applied to calculate the forces exerted on a hemisphere by ship waves varying with the ship's speed, dimensions and distance from the hemisphere to the ship's path. Our results indicate that the ship waves have enormous effects on offshore structures and are not neglectable.     

Interannual variability of SST,SLA and wind waves in the Hawaii area and their responses to ENSO

Time series of sea surface temperature (SST),wind speed and significant wave height (SWH) from meteorologicalbuoys of the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) are useful for studying the interannual variability and trend of these quantities at the buoy areas.The measurements from 4 buoys (B51001,B51002,B51003 and B51004) in the Hawaii area are used to study theresponses of the quantities to EI Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO).Long-term averages of these data reflect precise seasonaland climatological characteristics of SST,wind speed and SWH around the Hawaii area.Buoy observations from B51001 suggest asignificant warming trend which is,however,not very clear from the other three buoys.Compared with the variability of SST andSWH,the wind speeds from the buoy observations show an increasing trend.The impacts of El Nifio on SST and wind waves arealso shown.Sea level data observed by altimeter during October 1992 to September 2006 are analyzed to investigate the variabilityof sea level in the Hawaii area.The results also show an increasing trend in sea level anomaly (SLA).The low-passed SLA in theHawaii area is consistent with the inverse phase of the low-passed Sol (Southern Oscillation Index).Compared with the low-passedSOl and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation),the low-passed PNA (Pacific-North America Index) has a better correlation with thelow-passed SLA in the Hawaii area.     

Factors that influence fluid flow in a single fracture

To investigate the influence of compression, Poisson effect and turbulence on the fluid flow process and the inversion for fracture surface geometries, we simulate two sets of fractures: one with a defined fracture height standard deviation σ constant and a varying autocorrelation length λ and another with a fixed λ and a changing σ. Under compression, the normal stress closes fractures with a large aperture and thus reduces the effective permeability. However, the Poisson effect, which is induced by the compression, has little influence on the fluid flow properties and does not affect the inversion for fracture height standard deviation or the autocorrelation length. When introducing turbulence, we observe a significant difference between the performance of the Navier–Stokes equation and the local cubic law; compared with the Navier–Stokes equation, the local cubic law overestimates the peak value of the breakthrough time curve and effective permeability, thereby underestimating the mean fracture aperture.     

新疆额敏东部志留纪化石的发现及其地质意义

在额敏东部原划为晚泥盆世塔尔巴哈台组的火山碎屑岩夹碳酸盐岩地层中发现了丰富的志留纪文洛克世动物化石, 包括珊瑚Halysites hoboksarensis、H. sp.、Mesofavosites sp., 腕足动物Atrypa sp.、Eospirifer radiatus, 三叶虫Encrinuroides sp.、Encrinurus sp.1、E. sp.2、Cheirurus sp.、Sthenarocalymene sp., 短剑类Lepidocoleus sp.和层孔虫等, 通过区域岩性组合对比, 将该套地层改划为文洛克统沙尔布尔组.珊瑚和层孔虫等对环境要求较高的生物化石的发现, 同时结合地层中风暴沉积的粒序层理、包卷层理及火焰构造等相标志, 说明了额敏东部在文洛克世为火山碎屑质的开阔台地相沉积环境, 处于热带、亚热带气候区.      

Improved Inter‐calibration of Faraday Cup and Ion Counting for In Situ Pb Isotope Measurements Using LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS: Application to the Study of the Origin of the Fangshan Pluton,North China

A laser ablation multi‐collector inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS) method was developed to obtain precise and accurate Pb isotopic ratio measurements in low‐Pb materials (< 10 μg g^?1) using a combination of Faraday cups and ion counters (FC–IC). The low abundance ²⁰⁴Pb (~ 1.4%) was collected using an IC. A NBS 981 standard solution was used to cross‐calculate the FC–IC gain and to investigate the signal response characteristics of the IC. A significant, continuous and linear decrease in the FC–IC gain was observed within 1 hr, but this drift could be corrected using the calibrator‐sample‐calibrator bracketing method. In addition, a non‐linear response of the IC used in this study was observed and corrected by a non‐linear correction algorithm, which was established by measuring a series of gravimetrically prepared NBS 981 standard solutions (NIST SRM 981). Compared with the conventional arrangement, the use of the newly designed X skimmer cone and Jet sample cone improved the signal intensities from Pb isotopes by a factor of 1.9. Compared with only Faraday cups, using a combination FC–IC array was found to enhance the measurement repeatability (RSD) of ^20xPb/²⁰⁴Pb by approximately one order of magnitude when the ²⁰⁴Pb intensity was < 8 mV. Eight natural glasses and the NIST SRM 612 reference material glass (as a calibration material) were measured to evaluate the new protocol for Pb isotope determination. The analytical results were in agreement with the reference values within 2s measurement uncertainties. For MPI‐DING ATHO‐G (5.67 μg g^?1 total Pb), KL2‐G (2.07 μg g^?1 total Pb) and ML3B‐G (1.38 μg g^?1 total Pb), the typical accuracies of ^20xPb/²⁰⁴Pb were 0.09% of preferred values with precisions of < 0.33% (2RSD). The Pb isotope ratios in feldspars from granodiorite and within mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs) from the Fangshan pluton, North China, were measured using the present method. The Pb isotopic compositions of feldspars from the whole host granodiorite show that that are radiogenic in the margin zone and gradually become less radiogenic. For the MMEs, the Pb isotopic compositions of feldspars are highly variable and overlap with those of the whole host granodiorite. For single‐grain feldspar, the strong rim‐core‐rim variations of the Pb isotopic compositions and trace elements are interpreted to have been generated via magma mixing. These results suggest that the Fangshan pluton underwent magma mixing of mantle‐derived mafic magmas with felsic magmas, and the proportion of the mafic magma influx decreased over time.