Estimation of the Recurrence Period of Strong Earthquakes in Zones of the Main Sayan and Tunka Faults according to the Data of Radiocarbon Dating and Statistical Analysis

The conventional radiocarbon ages of soil horizons limiting the timing of six fault-generating dis- placements within the East Sayan structure of the Main Sayan Fault and four displacements within the Tora structure of the Tunka Fault (M > 7) have been calibrated according to the IntCal04 calibration curve. It was revealed that between time periods of 12 Ka and 5.4 Ka years ago, the recurrence of earthquakes associated with movements along the faults in the East Sayan structure occurred once every 3000 years. After seismic quiescence, since 1100 years, one earthquake has occurred every 440 years. Using the Monte Carlo method, the possibility of the recurrence of strong earthquakes at different probability levels was considered. At a fre- quency probability of 95% the Main Sayan fault may be hazardous, dating from about 2120 AD. When low- ering the threshold probability to 72%, the beginning of the period of potential hazard is reduced to about 2030 AD. In both cases the maximum possibility of the occurrence of the next strong earthquake is not earlier than in the 22nd century. For the Tora structure, the periodicity of the recurrence of the earthquakes was esti- mated as 2800 yearsfor the past 11Ka with a probability of over 95% of the recurrence of earthquakes. This allows us to assume that currently the Tora structure is within the time interval of the potential risk of the recurrence of a strong earthquake.     

Ongoing research on seismic safety assessment

Research on seismic safety assessment has been the centre of great interest among the scientific community in recent years. Although the devastating impact of earthquakes on current society should be incentive enough to increase research, the development of more realistic mechanical behaviour models and the continuous enhancement of computation capabilities are paramount factors contributing a great deal to the increase of such interest. In this context, three research areas can be identified as currently leading to important developments: code related research, especially in Europe where new design codes are in the implementation process; risk analysis, namely concerning the definition of methodologies for safety assessment that involve the evaluation of the failure probability and could be included in future generations of codes; and experimental characterization of constitutive laws which provides support for the development and calibration of accurate and realistic numerical models for seismic analysis and for the adequate characterization of limit state capacities. The paper will present some of the current scientific research trends on these three seismic safety assessment related topics. Studies addressing the seismic safety assessment of structures, either probabilistically or based on code provisions, and that consider realistic nonlinear mechanical behaviour models will be focussed. Reference will also be made to experimental research on the seismic behaviour of structural elements, emphasizing its crucial role to support the development of numerical models simulating the effects of different seismic strengthening techniques. Finally, given the development of studies leading to new trends and perspectives for performance based earthquake engineering, a possible scenario for seismic design in the future is presented, emphasizing the key issues for its implementation.     

K-feldspar IRSL dating of a Pleistocene river terrace staircase sequence of the Lower Tejo River (Portugal,western Iberia)

We present the results of K-feldspar IRSL dating of the four lower terraces (T3–T6) of the Portuguese Tejo River, in the Arripiado-Chamusca area. Terrace correlation was based upon: a) analysis of aerial photographs, geomorphological mapping and field topographic survey; b) sedimentology of the deposits; and c) luminescence dating. Sediment sampled for luminescence dating gave unusually high dose rates, of between 3.4 and 6.2 Gy/ka and, as a result, quartz OSL was often found to be in saturation. We therefore used the IRSL signal from K-feldspar as the principal luminescence technique. The K-feldspar age results support sometimes complex geomorphic correlations, as fluvial terraces have been vertically displaced by faults (known from previous studies). Integration of these new ages with those obtained previously in the more upstream reaches of the Tejo River in Portugal indicates that the corrected K-feldspar IRSL ages are stratigraphically and geomorphologically consistent over a distance of 120 km along the Tejo valley. However, we are sceptical of the accuracy of the K-feldspar ages of samples from the T3 and T4 terraces (with uncorrected D_e values >500 Gy). In these cases the Dose Rate Correction (DRC) model puts the natural signals close to luminescence saturation, giving a minimum corrected D_e of about 1000 Gy, and thus minimum terrace ages; this may even be true for those doses >200 Gy. Luminescence dating results suggest that: T3 is older than 300 ka, probably ca. 420–360 ka (～Marine Isotope Stage [MIS]11); T4 is ca. 340–150 ka (～MIS9-6); T5 is 136–75 ka (～MIS5); T6 is 60–30 ka (MIS3); an aeolian sand unit that blankets T6 and some of the older terraces is 30–≥12 ka. Collectively, the luminescence ages seem to indicate that regional river downcutting events may be coincident with periods of low sea level (associated, respectively, with the MIS10, MIS6, MIS4 and MIS2).     

Late Quaternary paleoseismic evidence on the Munébrega half-graben fault (Iberian Range,Spain)

The Munébrega Plio-Quaternary half-graben is a NW-SE trending neotectonic depression located in the central sector of the intraplate Iberian Range (NE Spain). The master fault of the half-graben offsets an Upper Pleistocene pediment deposit, forming an upslope-facing scarp. A trench dug across the fault scarp exposed a 25-m wide deformation zone consisting of graben and horst fault blocks with fissures in the upper part of the scarp, and a monoclinal flexure affected by normal and reverse faults in the lower part of the scarp. We infer a minimum of three faulting events over the past 72 ka, yielding an average (maximum) recurrence interval of 24 ka. The oldest event (72–41 ka) produced an antislope scarp on the relict pediment surface, confining deposition to the downthrown block. Cross-cutting faults affecting sedimentary units deposited in the sediment trap produced by the first event provide evidence for at least two younger events (33–19? ka). The measured cumulative vertical displacement (7.4 m) yield a minimum vertical slip rate of 0.10 ± 0.01 mm/year (2σ error) for the past 72 ka. If the paleoearthquakes ruptured the whole mappable length of the fault (ca. 20 km), they probably had moment magnitudes ca. 6.9 (Stirling et al. Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2002). Such earthquakes would have been more than a magnitude unit larger than the largest ones recorded historically in the Iberian Range. These results suggest that the official seismic hazard assessments, based solely on the historic and instrumental record, may underestimate the seismic hazard in the area.     

A rootless suture and the loss of the roots of a mountain chain: The Variscan belt of NW Iberia

Ophiolites of different Paleozoic ages occur in North-West (NW) Iberia in a rootless suture representing the remnants of the Rheic Ocean. Associated allochthonous terranes in the hanging- and foot-walls of the suture derive from the former margins, whereas the relative autochthon corresponds to the Paleozoic passive margin of northern Gondwana. The Paleozoic tectonic evolution of this part of the circum-Atlantic region is deduced from the stratigraphical, petrological, structural and metamorphic evolution of the different units and their ages. The tectonic reconstruction covers from Cambro-Ordovician continental rifting and the opening of the Rheic Ocean to its Middle to Upper Devonian closure. Then, the Variscan Laurussia–Gondwana convergence and collision is briefly described, from its onset to the late stages of collapse associated with the demise of the orogenic roots.     

Changes in the Diffuse CO2 Emission and Relation to Seismic Activity in and around El Hierro, Canary Islands

Significant changes in the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide were recorded in a geochemical station located at El Hierro, Canary Islands, before the occurrence of several seismic events during 2004. Two precursory CO₂ efflux increases started thirteen and nine days before two seismic events of magnitude 2.3 and 1.7, which took place near El Hierro Island, Canary Islands, on March 23 and April 15, reaching a maximun value of 51.1 and 46.2 g m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively, five and eight days before the two seismic events. Other similar increases started thirteen and five days before the occurrence of two seismic events of magnitude 1.3 and 1.5 which took place on October 15 and 21 respectively, reaching the maximum values four and one day before the earthquakes. These changes were not related to variations in atmospheric or soil parameters. The Material Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which analyzes the rate of precursory phenomena, was successfully applied to forecast the first seismic event that took place in El Hierro Island in 2004.     

青藏高原动力和热力作用对热带大气环流影响的数值研究

应用在CCM3气候模式基础上发展的一个CCM3(R15L9)长期预报模式 ,进一步研究了青藏高原热力和动力作用对夏季热带地区大气环流的影响。结果表明 :在 6月初夏季节 ,青藏高原动力和热力作用在 30°N和 30°S一带有明显的增温效果 ,有利于北半球副热带西风减弱北移、热带高层东风增强北进、南半球西风带北压和赤道中低层西风形成和加强。加速了季节转换过程 ,有利于增强越赤道气流和南北半球的大气交换作用 ,还有利于在南海、菲律宾以东海面上热带气旋的形成和发展 ,以及140°E以东热带太平洋地区的东风波动的形成和发展     

Localized multi-scale energy and vorticity analysis: II. Finite-amplitude instability theory and validation

A novel localized finite-amplitude hydrodynamic stability analysis is established in a unified treatment for the study of real oceanic and atmospheric processes, which are in general highly nonlinear, and intermittent in space and time. We first re-state the classical definition using the multi-scale energy and vorticity analysis (MS-EVA) developed in Liang and Robinson [Liang, X.S., Robinson, A.R., 2005. Localized multiscale energy and vorticity analysis. I. Fundamentals. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 38, 195–230], and then manipulate certain global operators to achieve the temporal and spatial localization. The key of the spatial localization is transfer-transport separation, which is made precise with the concept of perfect transfer, while relaxation of marginalization leads to the localization of time. In doing so the information of transfer lost in the averages is retrieved and an easy-to-use instability metric is obtained. The resulting metric is field-like (Eulerian), conceptually generalizing the classical formalism, a bulk notion over the whole system. In this framework, an instability has a structure, which is of particular use for open flow processes. We check the structure of baroclinic instability with the benchmark Eady model solution, and the Iceland–Faeroe Frontal (IFF) intrusion, a highly localized and nonlinear process occurring frequently in the region between Iceland and Faeroe Islands. A clear isolated baroclinic instability is identified around the intrusion, which is further found to be characterized by the transition from a spatially growing mode to a temporally growing mode. We also check the consistency of the MS-EVA dynamics with the barotropic Kuo model. An observation is that a local perturbation burst does not necessarily imply an instability: the perturbation energy could be transported from other processes occurring elsewhere. We find that our analysis yields a Kuo theorem-consistent mean–eddy interaction, which is not seen in a conventional Reynolds stress framework. Using the techniques of marginalization and localization, this work sets up an example for the generalization of certain geophysical fluid dynamics theories for more generic purposes.     

TRMM测雨产品3B42与台站资料在中国区域的对比分析

本文利用2004—2008年6—8月中国673个气象站逐6小时降水资料检验同期TRMM测雨产品3B42的精度。经检验得出：卫星资料日平均降水和降水频率空间分布与台站资料非常类似,相关系数分别能达到0.79和0.84,降水频率与台站资料相比偏大;从日降水相关空间分布看,卫星资料在东部地区相关性较高,日降水相关系数都在0.6～0.9之间;从日降水和逐6小时降水平均绝对误差空间分布看,卫星资料在华南地区误差最大,长江流域次之;从中国8个区域逐6小时降水总量日变化看,卫星资料与台站资料有很好的一致性,但在华南地区20时降水量偏小;按不同雨量等级对比,发现卫星资料绝对误差相对百分率空间分布有如下特点：小雨全国普遍数值偏高,中雨东部部分地区偏大,大雨和暴雨整体上数值小于1;全国平均漏演率和空演率分别为10%和14%。