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991.
Dai Aiguo Huang Danqing Rose Brian E. J. Zhu Jian Tian Xiangjun 《Climate Dynamics》2020,54(11):4515-4543
Climate Dynamics - Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the total global warming caused by an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 from the pre-industrial level in a climate system.... 相似文献
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996.
利用多种常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了2017年3月1日江苏北部出现的一次罕见冷空气雷雨大风天气过程的发生背景、地面要素和云团演变特征,同时从大气动力、热力和水汽条件出发分析了午后对流的成因。结果表明:此次过程发生前,江苏地区位于高空槽前,对流层中低层有冷式切变线伴随两股冷空气南下,受江苏省北部地面气旋阻挡,冷空气在上游堆积,当气旋东移入海冷空气爆发式南下时,造成严重的大风灾害。此次过程中,对流层中高层大气降温而低层回温使大气温度直减率增大,为对流发生提供不稳定条件,但水汽输送主要集中在低层,且高层大气无明显抽吸作用,导致此次过程未发生强对流性降水,主要以大风灾害性天气为主。 相似文献
997.
在气象灾害频发的今天,人们对获取气象信息的需求更为强烈.气象新闻图片,是把气象信息及时、直观地传送到读者面前的重要手段,是气象新闻中不可或缺的一部分.结合日常新闻摄影实践,探讨气象新闻图片拍摄技巧和手法,对如何拍摄好气象新闻图片提出几点建议,以期提升气象新闻摄影工作水平. 相似文献
998.
Jieshun Zhu Bohua Huang Magdalena A. Balmaseda James L. Kinter III Peitao Peng Zeng-Zhen Hu Lawrence Marx 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2785-2795
Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system. 相似文献
999.
温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
以黄瓜品种津优35号(Jingyou 35)为试材,于2011年设计不同低温(5、7、9、11 ℃,以25 ℃为对照)处理的人工环境控制试验,系统研究不同低温胁迫对黄瓜叶片光合作用特性及抗氧化酶活性的影响。结果表明:黄瓜叶片最大光合速率随低温胁迫程度的增加依次降低;在不同低温胁迫下,随胁迫时间的延长,黄瓜叶片光补偿点不断升高,光饱和点不断降低;在5 ℃、7 ℃和9 ℃低温处理下,随胁迫时间的延长,光系统Ⅱ最大光化学效率呈下降趋势,光化学淬灭不断降低,非光化学淬灭的变化趋势相反;黄瓜叶片中的超氧化物歧化酶活性随着处理温度的降低先升高后下降;过氧化物酶活性在9 ℃处理24 h后达到最高;过氧化氢酶活性随着处理温度的降低而升高;丙二醛含量大于对照,随胁迫程度的增加先升高,后略有下降。通过研究建立了温室黄瓜低温气象灾害指标,划分为4个等级,分别为轻度、中度、重度和极重,可为设施农业气象服务提供科学依据。 相似文献
1000.
Aaron S. Burton Daniel P. Glavin Jamie E. Elsila Jason P. Dworkin Peter Jenniskens Qing‐Zhu Yin 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(11):2074-2086
We determined the abundances and enantiomeric compositions of amino acids in Sutter's Mill fragment #2 (designated SM2) recovered prior to heavy rains that fell April 25–26, 2012, and two other meteorite fragments, SM12 and SM51, that were recovered postrain. We also determined the abundance, enantiomeric, and isotopic compositions of amino acids in soil from the recovery site of fragment SM51. The three meteorite stones experienced terrestrial amino acid contamination, as evidenced by the low d/l ratios of several proteinogenic amino acids. The d/l ratios were higher in SM2 than in SM12 and SM51, consistent with rain introducing additional l‐ amino acid contaminants to SM12 and SM51. Higher percentages of glycine, β‐alanine, and γ‐amino‐n‐butyric acid were observed in free form in SM2 and SM51 compared with the soil, suggesting that these free amino acids may be indigenous. Trace levels of d +l‐ β‐aminoisobutyric acid (β‐AIB) observed in all three meteorites are not easily explained as terrestrial contamination, as β‐AIB is rare on Earth and was not detected in the soil. Bulk carbon and nitrogen and isotopic ratios of the SM samples and the soil also indicate terrestrial contamination, as does compound‐specific isotopic analysis of the amino acids in the soil. The amino acid abundances in SM2, the most pristine SM meteorite analyzed here, are approximately 20‐fold lower than in the Murchison CM2 carbonaceous chondrite. This may be due to thermal metamorphism in the Sutter's Mill parent body at temperatures greater than observed for other aqueously altered CM2 meteorites. 相似文献