Dynamic Prediction Model of Overburden Settlement in Deep Mining Areas based on Space–Time Relationship

Natural Resources Research - Depletion of shallow mineral resources caused by deep mining has become an inevitable trend, and deep mining can increase safety accidents and geological hazards....     

The Data Depth-weight-kernel Estimation of the Model Error of Satellite Orbit Determination

It is an objective fact that there exists error in the satellite dynamic model and it will be transferred to satellite orbit determination algorithm, forming a part of the connotative model error. Mixed with the systematic error and random error of the measurements, they form the unitive model error and badly restrict the precision of the orbit determination. We deduce in detail the equations of orbit improvement for a system with dynamic model error, construct the parametric model for the explicit part of the model and nonparametric model for the error that can not be explicitly described. We also construct the partially linear orbit determination model, estimate and fit the model error using a two-stage estimation and a kernel function estimation, and finally make the corresponding compensation in the orbit determination. Beginning from the data depth theory, a data depth weight kernel estimator for model error is proposed for the sake of promoting the steadiness of model error estimation. Simulation experiments of SBSS are performed. The results show clearly that the model error is one of the most important effects that will influence the precision of the orbit determination. The kernel function method can effectively estimate the model error, with the window width as a major restrict parameter. A data depth-weight-kernel estimation, however, can improve largely the robustness of the kernel function and therefore improve the precision of orbit determination.     

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Rock magnetic properties and palaeomagnetic results of sediments from a stone implement layer in the Bose Basin,Guangxi

Directional samples were taken to study rock magnetism and palaeomagnetic records from the Dong- sheng profile, which is 5 m thick and on the northwest edge of the Bose Basin. Mineralogy and rock magnetism of typical samples indicate that coarse granular titanomagnetite, and fine-grained hematite, superparamagnetic maghemite formed by pedogenesis are in the sediment, which has undergone many transformative processes during different stages of pedogenesis. Parallel samples were taken for thermal demagnetization (TH) (0 to 680℃) and alternating field (AF) demagnetization (0 to 80 mT) respectively. Experimental results of these two kinds of demagnetization illustrate that there are two or more magnetic components in the samples. Intensity of NRM decreases by almost 60% to 90% rapidly when the temperature ranges from 100℃ to 350℃, with a steady magnetic component. It is impossible to analyze the magnetic components at high temperature because those fluctuate widely when the temperature is higher than 400℃. Steady magnetic components from 100℃ to 350℃ indicate that the remanence was mainly carried by fine-grained hematite formed by pedogenesis, reflecting a change in the geomagnetic field while the magnetite was being oxidized into hematite by chemical weathering after deposition. The formative age of the sediments cannot be obtained by magnetic methods in this profile.     

鲁西地区新太古代地壳增生事件：来自花岗岩和二长花岗岩U-Pb年代学、Hf同位素和岩石地球化学的证据

鲁西地区是全球完整保存新太古代早期TTG（英云闪长岩-奥长花岗岩-花岗闪长岩）和绿岩带的区域,是研究太古宙岩浆演化类型和太古宙时期壳幔作用以及构造模式的典型区域。本文在野外地质调查的基础上,通过年代学、Hf同位素和岩石地球化学等手段,探讨了鲁西地区新太古代花岗岩和二长花岗岩的地球化学特征和形成背景。鲁西地区新太古代花岗岩和二长花岗岩U-Pb年龄主要为2 537和2 566 Ma。花岗岩（TA1802）εHf (t)值为-1.4～2.9,平均值为0.65,二阶段模式年龄约为2.9 Ga;二长花岗岩（TA1812）εHf (t) 值为-0.4～2.7,平均值为1.31,二阶段模式年龄为 3 073～2 886 Ma,平均值约为2.9 Ga;二长花岗岩（TA1817）εHf (t) 值为0.3～4.7,平均值为3.35,二阶段模式年龄为3 032～2 762 Ma,平均值约为2.8 Ga。在εHf (t)-t 图解上,鲁西地区新太古代花岗岩和二长花岗岩年龄演化线均落在2.9～2.8 Ga地壳演化线上,且与二阶段模式年龄大致相同,即表明鲁西地区新太古代花岗岩和二长花岗岩源于2.9～2.8 Ga的古老地壳重融。鲁西地区新太古代花岗岩和二长花岗岩均表现为高w(SiO2)、w(Al2O3)和富Na2O特征,大部分属于准铝质岩石。稀土元素球粒陨石标准化分布型式上,均表现为轻稀土元素（LREE）富集和重稀土元素（HREE）亏损,且中重稀土元素出现分馏。花岗岩样品中,有两个样品（TA1801-1与TA1824）表现出Ta富集,其余样品均表现为K、Rb、Ba和Th等大离子亲石元素富集,Nb、Ta、Ti亏损。二长花岗岩也同样表现为K、Rb、Ba和Th等大离子亲石元素富集,Nb、Ta、Ti亏损,部分熔融残余矿物存在石榴石、金红石以及少量斜长石、角闪石。根据上述地球化学特征, 并结合区域地质特征,鲁西地区新太古代花岗岩和二长花岗岩构造背景为同碰撞背景,该构造模式是大陆地壳有效增生。     

Effect of coherent noise on single-station direction of arrival estimation

Polarization analysis of multi-component seismic data is used in both exploration seismology and earthquake seismology. In single-station polarization processing, it is generally assumed that any noise present in the window of analysis is incoherent, i.e., does not correlate between components. This assumption is often violated in practice because several overlapping seismic events may be present in the data. The additional arrival(s) to that of interest can be viewed as coherent noise. This paper quantifies the error because of coherent noise interference. We first give a general theoretical analysis of the problem. A simple mathematical wavelet is then used to obtain a closed-form solution to the principal direction estimated for a transient incident signal superposed with a time-shifted, unequal amplitude version of itself, arriving at an arbitrary angle to the first wavelet. The effects of relative amplitude, arrival angle, and the time delay of the two wavelets on directional estimates are investigated. Even for small differences in angle of arrival, there may be significant error (>10°) in the azimuth estimate.     

层状云对积云发展和降水的影响——一种云与云之间影响的数值模拟

利用我们已建立的二维积云降水模式,在相同的大气层结条件下,模拟了孤立积云和层状云中积云的发展和降水情况。结果表明,层状云的存在对积云的发展有显著的促进作用,降水量可加大到几到几十倍,从而认为积层混合云系可能是产生大雨和暴雨的一种重要机构,这与梅雨锋里锋区混合云系常产生暴雨的观测事实比较符合。     

Projection and possible causes of summer precipitation in eastern China using self-organizing map

Self-organizing map (SOM) is used to simulate summer daily precipitation over the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin in Eastern China, including future projections. SOM shows good behaviors in terms of probability distribution of daily rainfall and spatial distribution of rainfall indices, as well as consistency of multi-model simulations. Under RCP4.5 Scenario, daily rainfall at most sites (63%) is projected to shift towards larger values. For the early 21st century (2016–2035), precipitation in the central basin increases, yet decreases occur over the middle reaches of the Yangtze River as well as a part of its southeast area. For the late 21st century (2081–2100), the mean precipitation and extreme indices experience an overall increase except for a few southeast stations. The total precipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and in its south area is projected to increase from 7% at 1.5 °C global warming to 11% at 2 °C, while the intensity enhancement is more significant in southern and western sites of the domain. A clustering allows to regroup all SOM nodes into four distinct regimes. Such regional synoptic regimes show remarkable stability for future climate. The overall intensification of precipitation in future climate is linked to the occurrence-frequency rise of a wet regime which brings longitudinally closer the South Asia High (eastward extended) and the Western Pacific Subtropical High (westward extended), as well as the reduction of a dry pattern which makes the two atmospheric centers of action move away from each other.     

"10.19"全州冰雹的中小尺度分析

用天气学方法对1997年10月19日全州县境内出现的一场历史上罕见的冰雹过程的中小尺度进行分析,揭示这次过程的一些机制,为掌握冰雹发生前中小尺度系统的活动和演变规律积累经验,对提高今后的预报服务能力将有所帮助.     

PTB220型气压传感器调整方法

1概述目前内蒙古自动站气压传感器使用的输出方式有两种：RS232串行输出和模拟电压输出。当对气压传感器进行检定后,如果发现各检定点测量误差的总平均大于±0.3 hPa,则需要进行调整。