强对流天气监测预报预警技术进展

强对流天气预报业务包括监测、分析、预报、预警和检验等方面。对流初生识别、对流系统强度识别和对流天气类型识别等监测技术取得新进展,综合多源资料的监测技术已应用于中国气象局中央气象台业务。对流系统的触发、发展和维持机制等获得了新认识,我国不同类型强对流天气及其环境条件统计气候特征、分析规范及相应业务产品等为业务预报提供了必要基础和技术支撑。光流法、多尺度追踪技术以及应用模糊逻辑方法的临近预报技术等有明显进展,融合短时预报技术得到广泛应用,对流可分辨高分辨率数值 (集合) 预报及其后处理产品预报试验取得了显著成效,基于数值 (集合) 预报应用模糊逻辑方法的分类强对流天气短期预报技术为业务预报提供了技术支撑。强对流天气综合监测和多尺度自适应临近预报技术、多尺度分析技术以及融合短时预报技术、发展并应用模糊逻辑等方法的、基于高分辨率数值 (集合) 模式的区分不同强度等级和极端性的分类强对流天气精细化 (概率) 预报技术等是未来发展的主要方向。     

北京城市下垫面的非均匀性度量研究

城市下垫面非均匀性度量研究对于改进中尺度数值模式、提高城市气象预报准确率具有重要意义.基于分形布朗运动理论和Landsat-TM卫星遥感图像,估算了2011年北京典型下垫面类型个例和整个空间区域的分数维,由此来度量北京城市下垫面的非均匀性特征.研究结果显示:分数维能有效度量北京城市下垫面的非均匀程度,典型下垫面类型的分数维高低顺序为商业区 >大型居民区 >城市绿地 >农田>林地 >水体;北京六环内区域及郊区城镇地表非均匀特征明显,分数维一般在2.50以上,北京城市中心(二环内)存在一个分数维相对低值区,二环—四环之间区域分数维普遍较高,在2.70以上,五环以外分数维则不断降低,反映出北京城市下垫面非均匀性从中心向外呈低—高—低的空间分布;下垫面类型中建筑用地、绿地、未利用地、农田、林地和水体的平均分数维分别为2.71、2.62、2.55、2.38、2.30和2.28,分数维值的高低反映了城市下垫面类型的非均匀程度大小,对定量描述城市边界层参数的复杂特征具有参考意义.     

南阳市1960—2013年高温日数变化特征及原因分析

根据国家气象信息中心气象资料室1960—2013年南阳市地面气象月报表的观测资料,采用线性回归、简单相关系数法、M-K突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了南阳市高温日数的变化特征,结果表明:1960—2013年南阳市共出现788次高温日;出现高温日数最多的是2013年,为37天;1987年无高温日。南阳市高温日数6月份最多,占高温天气发生总次数的36.7%;9月最少,占总次数的2.2%。从1960—2013年高温日的逐年分布情况可以看出,54 a间高温日数整体呈下降趋势,倾向率为-1.59天/10a。南阳市年高温日数在20世纪70年代的降低是一突变,具体是从1971年开始。由南阳高温日数小波系数实部图可见,高温日数存在多重时间周期尺度上的嵌套复杂结构现象,包含了多个不同尺度的周期变化,南阳年高温日数变化存在3个明显的周期振荡,分别是10~12 a、26~28 a和50~51 a的尺度。从小波方差图中可以看出,12 a、28 a、50 a存在峰值,其中尺度50 a峰值最高,能量最大;其次是尺度12 a的。高温日数较多年比高温日数较少年6—8月500 h Pa平均环流场副高西伸脊点更偏西;高温日数较多年500 h Pa平均环流场更为平直,以纬向环流为主,不利于冷空气南下,因此多晴热天气。高温日数较少年环流场上华北地区波动幅度更大,冷空气和降水天气过程较多。1960—2013年5—9月降水量呈增加趋势,这也相应地减少了高温天气。1960—2013年5—9月南阳市日照时数一直处于下降趋势,日照时数的下降也使高温日数减少。     

Discussion on the complete-form vorticity equation and slantwise vorticity development

The complete form of the vertical vorticity tendency equation (the complete-form vorticity equation) is derived from the Ertel potential vorticity equation to contain thermodynamic factors. In this study, a new complete-form vorticity equation, which has the same form as the original complete-form vorticity equation, is deduced from the absolute vorticity vector equation combined with the continuity equation and the expression of three-dimensional (3D) entropy gradient. By comparing the complete-form vorticity equation with the classical vertical vorticity equation, it is found that regardless of whether or not the isentropic surface is tilting, the two vorticity equations are in essence the same. The “baroclinic term” of the complete-form vorticity equation is exactly equal to the solenoidal term of the classical one, and there is a significant amount of cancellation between the two baroclinic items (the “slantwise term” and the horizontal vorticity change term) in the complete-form vorticity equation. In operational weather analysis, the tilt of the isentropic surface can be diagnosed according to the density of the isotherm on the upper-level isobaric map. For synoptic-scale motion, the vertical vorticity produced by the tilt of the isentropic surface is due to the contribution of atmospheric baroclinicity, which is measured by the solenoid. The 3D solenoid is parallel to the isentropic surface, so the more tilted the isentropic surface, the bigger the projection of the 3D solenoid in the vertical direction. The baroclinic contribution can be interpreted based on the PV thinking theory, but the relationship between the vorticity field and the potential vorticity field is not immediate.     

Optimal two-impulse rendezvous using constrained multiple-revolution Lambert solutions

A solution to the fixed-time minimum-fuel two-impulse rendezvous problem for the general non-coplanar elliptical orbits is provided. The optimal transfer orbit is obtained using the constrained multiple-revolution Lambert solution. Constraints consist of lower bound for perigee altitude and upper bound for apogee altitude. The optimal time-free two-impulse transfer problem between two fixed endpoints implies finding the roots of an eighth order polynomial, which is done using a numerical iterative technique. The set of feasible solutions is determined by using the constraints conditions to solve for the short-path and long-path orbits semimajor axis ranges. Then, by comparing the optimal time-free solution with the feasible solutions, the optimal semimajor axis for the two fixed-endpoints transfer is identified. Based on the proposed solution procedure for the optimal two fixed-endpoints transfer, a contour of the minimum cost for different initial and final coasting parameters is obtained. Finally, a numerical optimization algorithm (e.g., evolutionary algorithm) can be used to solve this global minimization problem. A numerical example is provided to show how to apply the proposed technique.     

甘肃北山—河西走廊—祁连山区域地下水循环模式

山区地下水流动受到区域气候条件、地形地貌、地质构造等因素共同控制,限于资料有限,其流动模式与控制机理尚不清晰.特别是地处甘肃北山的高放废物地质处置库预选区、河西走廊以及祁连山北麓区域地下水的流动模式,直接决定了处置库在万年时间尺度上的安全性.基于区域遥感构造解译、地质构造演化分析、地球物理勘探以及水文地质钻探,获取了典...     

CCD photometry of five X-ray selected BL Lacertae objects

We present the results of the monitoring of a sample of 5 HBLs in the B, V and R bands during 2003–2008. All sources in our monitoring project show significant rapid optical variations, except 1ES 1959+650, however; for 1ES 1959+650, the gamma-ray variability on a timescale of ～7 hours has been observed by Holder et al. (Astrophys. J. 583:L9, 2003). Using these variability timescales, we estimate the black hole masses for each source with the Kerr black hole theory.     

Solar Intranetwork Magnetic Elements: Evolution and Lifetime

Based on Hinode SOT/NFI observations with greatly improved spatial and temporal resolution and polarization sensitivity, the lifestory of the intranetwork (IN) magnetic elements are explored in a solar quiet region. A total of 2282 IN elements are followed from their appearance to disappearance and their fluxes measured. By tracing individual IN elements their lifetimes are obtained, which fall in the range from 1 to 20 min. The average lifetime is 2.9±2.0 min. The observed lifetime distribution is well represented by an exponential function. Therefore, the e-fold characteristic lifetime is determined by a least-square fitting to the observations, which is 2.1±0.3 min. The lifetime of IN elements is correlated closely with their flux. The evolution of IN elements is described according to the forms of their birth and disappearance. Based on the lifetime and flux obtained from the new observations, it is estimated that the IN elements have the capacity of heating the corona with a power of 2.1×10²⁸ erg s⁻¹ for the whole Sun.