Dynamical evolution of NEAs: Close encounters, secular perturbations and resonances

We discuss the main mechanisms affecting the dynamical evolution of Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) by analyzing the results of three numerical integrations over 1 Myr of the NEA (4179) Toutatis. In the first integration the only perturbing planet is the Earth. So the evolution is dominated by close encounters and looks like a random walk in semimajor axis and a correlated random walk in eccentricity, keeping almost constant the perihelion distance and the Tisserand invariant. In the second integration Jupiter and Saturn are present instead of the Earth, and the 3/1 (mean motion) and v ₆ (secular) resonances substantially change the eccentricity but not the semimajor axis. The third, most realistic, integration including all the three planets together shows a complex interplay of effects, with close encounters switching the orbit between different resonant states and no approximate conservation of the Tisserand invariant. This shows that simplified 3-body or 4-body models cannot be used to predict the typical evolution patterns and time scales of NEAs, and in particular that resonances provide some fast-track dynamical routes from low-eccentricity to very eccentric, planet-crossing orbits.On leave from the Department of Mathematics, University of Pisa, Via Buonarroti 2, 56127 Pisa, Italy, thanks to the G. Colombo fellowships of the European Space Agency.     

Shear-induced instability and arch filament eruption: A magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulation

We investigate, via a two-dimensional (nonplanar) MHD simulation, a situation wherein a bipolar magnetic field embedded in a stratified solar atmosphere (i.e., arch-filament-like structure) undergoes symmetrical shear motion at the footpoints. It was found that the vertical plasma flow velocities grow exponentially leading to a new type of global MHD-instability that could be characterized as a Dynamic Shearing Instability, with a growth rate of about 8{ovV} _A a, where {ovV} _A is the average Alfvén speed and a ^–1 is the characteristic length scale. The growth rate grows almost linearly until it reaches the same order of magnitude as the Alfvén speed. Then a nonlinear MHD instability occurs beyond this point. This simulation indicates the following physical consequences: the central loops are pinched by opposing Lorentz forces, and the outer closed loops stretch upward with the vertically-rising mass flow. This instability may apply to arch filament eruptions (AFE) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).To illustrate the nonlinear dynamical shearing instability, a numerical example is given for three different values of the plasma beta that span several orders of magnitude. The numerical results were analyzed using a linearized asymptotic approach in which an analytical approximate solution for velocity growth is presented. Finally, this theoretical model is applied to describe the arch filament eruption as well as CMEs.     

Comparison of structural and least-squares lines for estimating geologic relations

Two different goals in fitting straight lines to data are to estimate a true linear relation (physical law) and to predict values of the dependent variable with the smallest possible error. Regarding the first goal, a Monte Carlo study indicated that the structural-analysis (SA) method of fitting straight lines to data is superior to the ordinary least-squares (OLS) method for estimating true straight-line relations. Number of data points, slope and intercept of the true relation, and variances of the errors associated with the independent (X) and dependent (Y) variables influence the degree of agreement. For example, differences between the two line-fitting methods decrease as error in X becomes small relative to error in Y. Regarding the second goal—predicting the dependent variable—OLS is better than SA. Again, the difference diminishes as X takes on less error relative to Y. With respect to estimation of slope and intercept and prediction of Y, agreement between Monte Carlo results and large-sample theory was very good for sample sizes of 100, and fair to good for sample sizes of 20. The procedures and error measures are illustrated with two geologic examples.