自回归总径流线性响应模型在洪水预报中的应用

采用自回归总径流线性响应(ATLR)模型建立淮河王家坝站洪水预报方案和海河流域南运河水系洪水预报调度方案.自回归TLR模型与TLR模型加误差自回归实时校正模型的结构相同,但前者计算简捷,预报精度也有所提高.     

腾冲火山活动监测,预测与对策研究中的若干重要问题

《膳冲火山活动监测、预测与对策研究》项目是一项集火山活动监测研究、防灾及资源综合开发与利用为一体的系统工程。需要火山地质、地震、地球化学、地球物理、地壳形变及地热等诸多相关学科的合理配置和联合攻关。在过去的３０年,众多学和研究实体对腾冲火山进行 大量的观察和研究获得一批与火山活动的相关的基础研究成果。其中也不乏说明腾冲火山存在在喷发危险性的证据。为了保证本重大项目能在有限时间内及有限的人力、财务     

Delineation of sulphide ore-zones by borehole radar tomography at Hellyer Mine, Australia

Velocity and absorption tomograms are the two most common forms of presentation of radar tomographic data. However, mining personnel, geophysicists included, are often unfamiliar with radar velocity and absorption. In this paper, general formulae are introduced, relating velocity and attenuation coefficient to conductivity and dielectric constant. The formulae are valid for lossy media as well as high-resistivity materials. The transformation of velocity and absorption to conductivity and dielectric constant is illustrated via application of the formulae to radar tomograms from the Hellyer zinc–lead–silver mine, Tasmania, Australia. The resulting conductivity and dielectric constant tomograms constructed at Hellyer demonstrated the potential of radar tomography to delineate sulphide ore zones.     

顶板诱导崩落模式选择时变数值分析

顶板诱导崩落是一种新的空区处理技术,其实施效果与诱导崩落施工路径、方法和顺序有关,同时矿岩体作为一种弹塑性体,具有非线性时变力学特征。运用时变力学的基本理论,建立了顶板诱导崩落的时变力学有限元基本方程。针对大厂铜坑矿92号矿体试验采场的地质特征,构建了顶板诱导崩落的时变力学有限元模型,采用多步骤开挖模拟两种不同顶板诱导崩落模式,研究两种不同工序的顶板塑性区发展、东西预裂与崩顶硐室的位移及其安全系数,分析了其对采场的综合效应。结果表明,先预裂后崩顶的顶板诱导崩落模式有利于顶板崩落诱导,并综合考虑诱导崩落效果与作业安全,建议采用先预裂爆破后强制崩顶的微差爆破一次成型工艺。     

大气可吸入颗粒物解析技术研究进展

大气颗粒物源解析技术在环境管理中发挥着越来越重要的作用.本文从受体模型以及源解析技术发展的趋势两方面介绍了大气颗粒物源解析技术的研究进展.     

基于随机振动理论确定桥梁地震碰撞的临界间隙

确定梁桥邻跨间避免地震碰撞的最小间隙,对于梁桥地震碰撞危险性预测及防地震碰撞措施的设计有着显著意义。本文基于随机振动理论建立梁桥地震碰撞邻跨临界间隙的计算方法,分析模型采用跨径不等的两跨简支梁桥,且考虑隔震支座非线性恢复力的影响。文中首先建立了系统的非线性运动方程;随后运用随机等效线性化理论将其线性化;最后在复模态空间推导了临界碰撞间隙的均值与方差的计算方法。人工地震动的非线性时程分析结果验证了本文算法的正确性。参数分析表明,临界间隙随邻跨长度比增大而增大,随支座屈服力与上部结构重量比值减小而增大,随隔震支座屈服位移增大而增大,随桥墩振动周期增大而增大。隔震支座屈服前后刚度比值对临界间隙大小影响很小。     

普通黑光灯对稻纵卷叶螟和稻飞虱的诱虫量与气象因子的相关分析

以1991年至2008年广东省恩平市的观测数据,分析了普通黑光灯对稻纵卷叶螟和稻飞虱诱虫量与气象条件的相关性.结果表明:稻纵卷叶螟蛾年总诱量与年总降雨量呈正相关,稻飞虱成虫年诱量与年降雨量呈负相关,稻纵卷叶螟蛾与主要为害的5、6、8月降雨均呈正相关,与7月降雨则呈负相关;稻飞虱与5、7、8月降雨均为负相关,与6月降雨为正相关.此外,热带气旋个数与稻飞虱年诱虫量呈负相关;与稻纵卷叶螟蛾年诱虫量呈正相关.综合分析表明,稻纵卷叶螟蛾与稻飞虱与气象因子比较有较大的差别,对普通黑光灯诱虫量有极大的影响,可间接预测预报两迁飞性害虫的发生量,为准确预测预报两迁害虫为害提供参考.     

临震异常判别的统计分析

本文运用统计分析对地震预报中的临震前兆的异常与误差关系进行了讨论,指出了目前所存在的问题,提出了相应的改进意见。作为方法尝试,还结合楚雄短水准、昌黎地电阻率的资料进行了探讨。     

Natural gas geochemistry and its origins in Kuqa depression

According to gas compositional and carbon isotopic measurement of 114 gas samples from the Kuqa depression, accumulation of the natural gases in the depression is dominated by hydrocarbon gases, with high gas dryness (C₁/C_1–4) at the middle and northern parts of the depression and low one towards east and west sides and southern part. The carbon isotopes of methane and its homologues are relatively enriched in ¹³C, and the distributive range of δ ¹³C₁, δ ¹³C₂ and δ ¹³C₃ is ?32‰–?36‰, ?22‰–?24‰ and ?20‰–?22‰, respectively. In general, the carbon isotopes of gaseous alkanes become less negative with the increase of carbon numbers. The δ ¹³ \(C_{CO_2 } \) value is less than ?10‰ in the Kuqa depression, indicating its organogenic origin. The distributive range of ³He/⁴He ratio is within n × 10^?8 and a decrease in ³He/⁴He ratio from north to south in the depression is observed. Based on the geochemical parameters of natural gas above, natural gas in the Kuqa depression is of characteristics of coal-type gas origin. The possible reasons for the partial reversal of stable carbon isotopes of gaseous alkanes involve the mixing of gases from one common source rock with different thermal maturity or from two separated source rock intervals of similar kerogen type, multistages accumulation of natural gas under high-temperature and over-pressure conditions, and sufficiency and diffusion of natural gas.