南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区两雪坑内环境气候时间序列记录初步研究

对１９９６／１９９７年中国首次南极内陆冰盖考察获得的南极洲伊丽莎白公主地区两个雪坑样品的阴离子、阳离子和δ１８Ｏ进行对比分析,结果表明ＮＯ－３的浓度变化和δ１８Ｏ的变化同相,Ｃｌ－的浓度变化和δ１８Ｏ的变化异相,两者的变化和δ１８Ｏ的变化一样,都形成明显的季节变化层,这为研究者在本地区冰盖内划分年层、建立时间序列提供了重要的依据,但与之相反的是,各种阳离子的时间序列却不明显。另外,两个雪坑中的ｎｓｓＳＯ４２－在１９９５／１９９４和１９９３／１９９２都表现出非常高的浓度值,很可能是１９９１年６月和１９９１年８月的Ｐｉｎａｔｕｂｏ火山和ＣｅｒｒｏＨｕｄｓｏｎ火山的爆发在本地区冰雪中的反应     

Hydrological processes of glacier and snow melting and runoff in the Urumqi River source region,eastern Tianshan Mountains,China

Hydrological processes were compared, with and without the influence of precipitation on discharge, to identify the differences between glacierized and non-glacierized catchments in the Urumqi River source region, on the northern slope of the eastern Tianshan Mountains, during the melting season (May-September) in 2011. The study was based on hydrological data observed at 10-min intervals, meteorological data observed at 15-min intervals, and glacier melting and snow observations from the Empty Cirque, Zongkong, and Urumqi Glacier No.1 gauging stations. The results indicated that the discharge differed markedly among the three gauging stations. The daily discharge was more than the nightly discharge at the Glacier No.1 gauging station, which contrasted with the patterns observed at the Zongkong and Empty Cirque gauging stations. There was a clear daily variation in the discharge at the three gauging stations, with differences in the magnitude and duration of the peak discharge. When precipitation was not considered, the time-lags between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature were 1-3 h, 10-16 h, and 5-11 h at the Glacier No.1, Empty Cirque, and Zongkong gauging stations, respectively. When precipitation was taken into consideration, the corresponding time-lags were 0-1 h, 13 h, and 6-7 h, respectively. Therefore, the duration from the generation of discharge to confluence was the shortest in the glacierized catchment and the longest in the catchment where was mainly covered by snow. It was also shown that the hydrological process from the generation of discharge to confluence shortened when precipitation was considered. The factors influencing changes in the discharge among the three gauging stations were different. For Glacier No.1 station, the discharge was mainly controlled by heat conditions in the glacierized region, and the discharge displayed an accelerated growth when the temperature exceeded 5°C in the melt season. It was found that the englacial and subglacial drainage channel of Glacier No.1 had become simpler during the past 20 years. Its weaker retardance and storage of glacier melting water resulted in rapid discharge confluence. It was also shown that the discharge curve and the time-lag between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature could be used to reveal the evolution of the drainage system and the process of glacier and snow melting at different levels of glacier coverage.     

RS analysis of glaciers change in the Heihe River Basin,Northwest China,during the recent decades

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China and it is also a hotspot in arid hydrology, water resources and other aspects of researches in cold regions. In addition, the Heihe River Basin has complete landscape, moderate watershed size, and typical social ecological environmental problems. So far, there has been no detailed assessment of glaciers change information of the whole river basin. 1：50,000 topographic map data, Landsat TM/ETM＋ remote sensing images and digital elevation model data were used in this research. Through integrated computer automatic interpretation and visual interpretation methods, the object-oriented image feature extraction method was applied to extract glacier outline information. Glaciers change data were derived from analysis, and the glacier variation and its response to climate change in the period 1956/1963–2007/ 2011 were also analyzed. The results show that：（1） In the period 1956/1963–2007/2011, the Heihe River Basin＇s glaciers had an evident retreat trend, the total area of glaciers decreased from 361.69 km2 to 231.17 km~2; shrinking at a rate of 36.08%, with average single glacier area decrease 0.14 km~2; the total number of the glaciers decreased from 967 to 800.（2） Glaciers in this basin are mainly distributed at elevations of 4300–4400 m, 4400–4500 m and 4500–4600 m; and there are significant regional differences in glaciers distribution and glaciers change.（3） Compared with other western mountain glaciers, glaciers retreat in the Heihe River Basin has a higher rate.（4） Analysis of the six meteorological stations＇ annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 suggests that the mean annual temperature increased significantly and the annual precipitation also showed an increasing trend. It is concluded that glacier shrinkage is closely related with temperature rising, besides, glacier melting caused by rising temperatures greater than glacier mass supply by increased precipitation to     

Lambert冰川流域东西两侧气候环境变化

1992~1993年,中国科学家参加了澳大利亚南极考察队对Lambert冰川流域西侧的考察,1996起,中国南极考察队对Lambert流域东侧进行了多次考察。本文基于以上考察的研究成果,对Lambert冰川流域东西两侧气候环境变化特征进行了对比研究。结果表明：Lambert冰川两侧无论是降水还是温度,在几十年时间尺度上其变化趋势都存在着明显差异,Lambert冰川东西两侧从海岸向内陆近500 km断面上表面积累速率的分布截然不同,同时,Lambert冰川东西两侧的δ¹⁸O随温度的变化率 (又简称δ－温度梯度) 差别也很大,另外,反映水汽输送强度的海盐离子浓度近50年来的变化趋势相反。以上证据表明,Lambert冰川谷地可能是东南极洲一条重要的气候界线,其原因可能是特殊的局地环流 (顺时针的气旋活动) 导致不同的水汽来源,再加上局部地形的影响所致。     

高亚洲定位监测冰川平衡线高度时空分布特征研究

利用高亚洲定位监测冰川平衡线高度数据,对平衡线高度时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明：高亚洲冰川平衡线高度在空间尺度上具有纬度地带性、经向地带性和区域性的特征。在时间尺度上,高亚洲定位监测冰川平衡线高度呈现不同程度的升高趋势。在天山山区,乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川和Ts.Tuyuksuyskiy冰川的平衡线高度在1960-2013年间,分别增加约116m、80m,二者相比,Ts.Tuyuksuyskiy冰川对气候变化的敏感性更高;在阿尔泰山区,No.125（Vodopadniy）冰川、Maliy Aktru冰川和Leviy Aktru冰川在1983-2007年间,平衡线高度变化趋势基本一致,总体都呈升高趋势,其中,Maliy Aktru冰川平衡线高度增幅最大,升高了约142m;高亚洲定位监测冰川中,1962-2008年间,七一冰川平衡线高度升高速度最快,增幅最大,升高了约264m,升高速度最为缓慢的是乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川,其增幅最小,升高了约47m。     

21世纪天山南坡台兰河流域径流变化情景预估

基于台兰水文站2003—2005年观测的水文气象数据,通过参数率定和验证获得了适用于台兰河流域的HBV水文模型优化参数。应用RegCM3气候模式在IPCC SRES A1B情景下的预估数据,经Delta降尺度方法生成流域未来气候数据,并结合流域冰川退缩情景预估台兰河流域径流在21世纪中期(2041—2060年)和末期(2081—2100年)可能发生的变化。结果表明:在21世纪中期和末期,台兰河流域气温将显著上升,而降水变化不大;21世纪中期冰川3种可能退缩比例为15%、20%和25%,末期分别为20%、30%和40%;无论冰川处于哪一种退缩情景,21世纪径流较基准期(1981—2000年)都呈增加趋势,中期和末期最小增幅将分别为17.3%和18.6%;最大增幅可达45.9%和66.0%;耦合RegCM3气候模式预估增幅为28.9%和41.5%;台兰河流域未来径流年内分布与基准期大体相同,但又呈现出一定的差异性,具体表现为,在21世纪中期5月份径流增加很快,径流峰值出现在7月份,而到21世纪末期径流峰值出现在8月份。     

天山东部冰川积雪中大气粉尘的沉积特征

对我国天山东部三个研究点乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川、奎屯哈希勒根51号冰川和哈密庙尔沟平顶冰川积雪中大气粉尘沉积进行了分析研究。微粒特征分析表明,自西向东随着研究点地理环境的变化,积雪中不溶微粒的质量浓度、沉积通量和体积粒径分布众数都表现出增高趋势：奎屯哈希勒根51号冰川最小,乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川次之,哈密庙尔沟平顶冰川最大;三个研究点粒径0．57〈d〈26μm微粒的平均质量浓度分别是969μg／kg、1442μg／kg、3690μg／kg,年均沉积通量分别是58．2μg／cm^2、72．1μg／cm^2、73．8μg／cm^2。表明,哈密冰川受粉尘源影响较大．而乌鲁木齐河源与奎屯河源区受影响则相对较小。雪坑微粒浓度剖面和离子相关性分析表明,天山东部冰川积雪中污化层富含亚洲粉尘的富Ca^2＋、Na^2＋矿物;微粒体积一粒径分布众数介于3-22μm．粒径分布显示了单结构模式。研究区最近4年积雪的污化层剖面揭示了春季零星的粉尘浓度峰值以及沉积数量上较大的年际变化,意味着天山东部雪冰中粉尘沉积对大气环境变化的敏感性。     

Glacier No. 4 of Sigong River over Mt. Bogda of eastern Tianshan, central Asia: thinning and retreat during the period 1962–2009

RTK-GPS data, aerial photographs and Aster images were used to quantify volume, surface elevation, terminus position and area changes of Glacier No. 4 of Sigong River over Mt. Bogda, Tianshan during the period from 1962 to 2009. Glacier surface elevation of the tongue area decreased by 15 ± 8 m (0.32 ± 0.17 m a⁻¹) and ice volume loss reached 0.014 ± 0.008 km³ (0.013 ± 0.007 km³ w. e.). The glacier terminus retreated at a rate of 8.0 m a⁻¹ and the area decreased by about 0.53 km², accounting for 15.8% of the glacier area in 1962 (3.33 km²). The changes can be primarily attributed to the significant increase in temperature in this region. A comparison with glacier changes by field measurements in other regions of eastern Tianshan showed obvious spatial differences in the magnitude of the changes, owing to a combination of regional climate change and topographical factors.     

冰川物质平衡模式及其对比研究——以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川研究为例

冰川物质平衡是冰川连结气候和水资源的纽带, 对其的观测和模拟始终是冰川与气候变化研究领域的重点和前缘之一. 以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川为参照冰川, 结合实测物质平衡验证资料, 建立了基于冰川表面能量平衡的冰川物质平衡模型(物理模型)和基于温度参数、温度-辐射参数和温度-辐射-水汽压参数的三种度日因子模型(统计模型), 并对模拟结果进行了分析及评估. 结果表明: 净辐射是冰川表面最主要的能量来源, 占能量收入的82.3%; 其次为感热供热, 占收入的17.7%. 净长波辐射基本为负, 吸收的热量主要通过融化和蒸发/升华方式消耗, 分别占能量支出的84.7%和15.3%. 加入净短波辐射和水汽压参数的度日因子-物质平衡模型的模拟效果提高显著, 相对误差为7%, 与能量平衡模型的模拟误差6.7%, 相差不大. 研究表明, 能量-物质平衡模型的物理意义明确, 模拟能力强大, 尤其在日尺度上有绝对的优势; 统计物质平衡模型在特定的地理条件和气候条件下表现出不佳, 对于一些极端值的模拟能力欠缺, 但是具有输入变量少, 计算简单的优点. 研究结果对黑河流域乃至整个祁连山地区的冰川物质平衡模拟方法的建立具有参考意义.     

中国天山山区降水空间分布模拟及成因分析

为了研究中国天山山区降水空间分布规律及其形成机理,基于研究区DEM及气象站点数据资料,运用偏最小二乘法和GIS技术建立了山区降水估算模型,并分析其降水成因。结果表明:天山山区年降水具有明显的经度和纬度地带性,西段多于东段,北坡(迎风坡)多于南坡(背风坡);研究区降水在海拔4 000 m以下呈线性增加特征,随后显著减少,在5 500 m左右出现第二极大值带;坡度小于50°时降水与坡度呈显著正相关。在地形抬升条件下,随气温下降和相对湿度上升使降水增加,这也是山区降水形成的必要条件。总体来看,偏最小二乘法可以有效解决降水及各因子间多重相关性问题,模型回归效果较显著,在模拟山区降水方面具有一定适用性。