运用开放式条件估值方法评估恢复额济纳旗生态系统服务的总经济价值

条件估值方法(CVM)是当前国际上流行的衡量环境物品非利用经济价值的主要方法之一,它通过调查居民针对恢复或改善环境状况变化的支付意愿,从而定量地估计环境状况变化带来的经济效益和损失.针对黑河流域额济纳旗生态系统恶化的现状,以开放式问卷的调查方法设计了500份调查问卷,调查了黑河流域居民恢复额济纳旗生态系统的支付意愿,并采用非参数分析方法对结果进行分析.结果表明,用20年的时间将额济纳旗的生态系统恢复到80年代初的水平,黑河流域总共有93.2%的居民家庭存在支付意愿,有支付意愿家庭的平均支付意愿为每年每户44.9元,同时采用列联表检验的方法辨明了被调查者的年龄、学历、收入、户籍和居住的地理区域等因素对支付意愿的影响.最后在综合不同区域居民支付意愿差异的基础上,采用当前的市场利率将计算结果在时空尺度上加总,得到恢复黑河下游额济纳生态系统的总经济价值的现值为1.224×10⁸元.     

Estimation of design flood using EWT and ENE metrics and uncertainty analysis under non-stationary conditions

Concepts of Expected Waiting Time (EWT) and Expected Number of Exceedances (ENE) have been presented in much literature for estimating the Design Flood (DF) under non-stationary conditions. The parameters of the EWT and ENE are generally no less than four, which inevitably leads to the uncertainty of the DF estimation. In this paper, the Bayesian method is proposed to analyze the impact of parameter estimation uncertainty on the EWT- and ENE-based estimation of the DF and Corresponding Design Reliability (CDR). In addition, a comparison analysis between the EWT and ENE is conducted in terms of the DF and CDR with or without a consideration being given to the impact of parameter uncertainty. In the case of giving no consideration to the impact of parameter uncertainty, the experiment results indicate that the EWT-based estimations are less than that of ENE in terms of DF and CDR in the case of a decreasing trend. While in the case of an increasing trend, the EWT-based estimations are bigger than that of ENE. In the case of considering the impact of parameter uncertainty, results in the case study show that the distribution of the EWT-based estimations of DF and CDR are left shifted compared to that of the ENE. Overall, the EWT-based estimations are significantly different from that of ENE in terms of DF and CDR. Therefore, it is necessary and open for further discussions about which metric will be optimal between the EWT and ENE for estimating the DF under non-stationarity.     

被动大陆边缘盆地油气勘探进展

自21世纪以来,被动陆缘盆地已成为全球油气勘探的重点领域。在统计被动陆缘盆地勘探数据,分析被动陆缘盆地历次理论、技术进展带来的勘探领域的不断突破和油气发现规律基础上,认为有三个方面大的持续发展,在勘探理论上已突破过去围绕裂谷找油,近年发展了坳陷型、转换型陆缘盆地油气成藏理论,提出在被动陆缘半封闭—封闭的局限大型坳陷周缘、转换型被动陆缘转换坳陷带、地幔出露带洋壳上覆远洋浊积砂领域找油的观点,在南大西洋西非段、西南非段、地中海东部、中北大西洋两端、东非海上均取得重大勘探突破;在勘探领域上横向呈现由陆上—浅海—深水—超深水,纵向由斜坡水道—斜坡扇—坡底扇—盐下碳酸盐岩—深水扇发展趋势;在工程技术上随着深水钻探、盐下目标地震识别刻画等技术发展,带动了水深3000 m以上目标钻探和勘探突破。全球被动陆缘早期勘探主要在墨西哥湾周缘、南大西洋两岸中段,近年来逐步向中- 北大西洋两岸、东非沿岸、北极等领域转移,未来被动陆缘油气勘探越来越走向远洋超深水、盐下、深层、极地等领域。     

唐山两次中级地震前后地下水位固体潮加卸载响应比的变化

本文将加卸载响应比的理论和方法引入到地下水位潮汐资料计算中来,从岩石的应变与应力的非线性响应分析了井水位固体潮加卸载响应比的物理。     

山东地区水化学短临跟踪标志体系的研究

在系统整理山东地区水化学观测资料的基础上,对山东菏泽５．９级地震、苍山５．２级地震及大同６．１级地城才南黄海５．３级地震前的地震异常特征了分析和总结,认为水化学多组分的同步异常变化,反映了震源应力场孕育过程,具有统一的物理力学机制,是震前源兆异常的重要标志。这异常基本同步出现,相互印证,增强了异常的可信度,为短临异常的判定提供了较为充分的依据。某一井孔水化学多组分出现同步异常变化,预示位于井孔同     

Effects of salinity and nutrients on the growth and chlorophyll fluorescence of Caulerpa lentillifera

Caulerpa lentillifera is a green algae that distributes worldwide and is cultivated for food. We assessed vegetative propagation of C. lentillifera by measuring the specific growth rate(SGR) and chlorophyll fluorescence of the green algae cultured at different salinities and nutrient levels. The results indicated that C. lentillifera can survive in salinities ranging from 20 to 50,and can develop at salinities of 30 to 40. The maximum SGR for C. lentillifera occurred at a salinity of 35. Both chlorophyll content and the ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence( Fv / Fm) were also at a maximum at a salinity of 35. Photosynthesis was inhibited in salinities greater than 45 and less than 25. Both the maximum SGR and maximum chlorophyll content were found in algae treated with a concentration of 0.5 mmol/L of NO3-N and 0.1 mmol/L of PO 4-P. The photosynthetic capacity of photosystem II(PSII) was inhibited in cultures of C. lentillifera at high nutrient levels. This occurred when NO3-N concentrations were greater than 1.0 mmol/L and when PO4- P concentrations were at 0.4 mmol/L. As there is strong need for large-scale cultivation of C. lentillifera,these data contribute important information to ensure optimal results.     

气候与健康及气候康养研究进展

气候是人们赖以生存的自然环境,不同气候因素在抑制人体健康、促进病患康复、增加人体免疫系统韧性等方面因人因病而异。本文回顾了温度、湿度、日照、气压、大气污染等气候环境要素与人体健康关系以及四季气候易发病症,介绍了滨海、高山、森林、丘陵与平原等优质气候资源的康养价值和气候康养特性,从趋利避害角度强调了气候康养所应注意问题。在综述有关气候与健康以及气候康养适宜性评估等相关研究基础上,结合我国养生养老产业及医养融合经济发展前景,指出了气候康养未来研究主要方向。     

断层体系分维与油田分布

本文将分形几何学的原理和方法，应用于东营凹陷Ｔ２，Ｔ６和ＴＲ３个不同构造层的断层体系的二维平面分布特征研究，发现在研究的标度范围内（ｌ＝０．５－４ｋｍ）不仅具有统计自相似性，并且同一构造层不同子区域不同的分维值Ｄ．分维值分布特征为南区分维值略低于北区分维值，东区分维值略高于西区分维值，将本区断层体系的这种分维值布特征与油田分布特征对比，可发现分维值越高，油田规模越大。     

塔河油田奥陶系碳酸盐岩油藏岩溶成因类型

塔河油田位于塔里木盆地北部沙雅隆起中段的阿克库勒凸起上。该凸起自加里东中晚期到海西早期的多次构造抬升运动使奥陶系碳酸盐岩地层长期出露于地表,受到强烈的大气淡水淋滤溶蚀作用。该地区还经历了加里东中期海侵和石炭纪海侵以及二叠纪火山作用。以塔河油田主体区内11口井的33份砂泥质充填物为基础样本,作了硼、矾、镓、铷等微量元素和包裹体分析等地球化学的研究,证实研究区内以大气淡水岩溶作用为主,存在后期的淡水-海水混合岩溶作用和热水岩溶(溶蚀)作用。大气淡水岩溶纵向上主要分为三个带,溶洞充填物的伊利石K—Ar同位素定年揭示其呈上老下新的时序性。海水入侵所改造的为浅层第一、二个岩溶带,热水岩溶(溶蚀)改造的为深部第三个岩溶带。     

洪水频率分析稳健性方法研究

结合使用Huber的M估计和最小距离(MD)估计,构造了一种P-Ⅲ型总体下的频率分析方法。统计试验结果表明,当样本中有一定比例干扰数据的影响时,该方法具有较好的稳健性;同时,当样本中无干扰数据的影响时,该方法亦具有相对较优的统计性能。