豫北地区地球物理场特征及地质解释

在综合分析各种地球物理资料的基础上，论述了豫北地区地球物理场特征，并结合钻探资料进行了地质解释与构造特征分析．说明了本区的主要地质构造及煤系的分布，为该区的煤炭资源预测提供了依据。     

贵州岩溶沉积物稀土元素地球化学研究

本文对贵州岩溶沉积物稀土元素地球化学研究结果表明：稀土总量变化范围很大，RE2O3（1～434.39）×10－6。RE2O3随Al2O3含量增高而增高，随CaCO3含量增高而减少，相关系数分别为＋0．99，－0．98。低微含量的岩溶沉积物与碳酸盐母岩的稀土分布模式基本相似，高含量的岩溶沉积物稀土分布趋向于页岩模式。稀土解析实验和吸附实验表明，在岩溶化学沉积物和母岩中稀土主要以离子吸附态存在，岩溶碎屑沉积物中稀土主要以类质同象进入粘土矿物和副矿物格架中。稀土富集系数Kk值计算表明，在碳酸盐岩及其岩溶化学沉积物的成岩过程中不存在稀土富集，岩溶碎屑粘土沉积物中则存在稀土富集。对岩溶化学沉积物──碳酸盐结核的中心区、过渡带、边缘带及外围壳状粘土中稀土元素解析研究表明，随着结核的生长，活动性稀土组成发生变化，向轻、中稀土占优势的方向移动。     

低成熟石油概念厘定及其多元多源复合连续成油特征

本文指出了低成熟石油概念和实际划分上的不统一和不规范,并给出了初步定义。另外,对低成熟石油的相关成烃母质进行了综述,在此基础上给出了低成熟成烃母质的定义,指出了低成熟石油成烃母质的多元性和油源的多源性特点,同时还指出低成熟石油是沉积有机质在地质埋藏过程中波动成烃连续模式之部分,其具有多元多源复合成烃行为和分阶段连续演化的特征。这些认识对正确评价含油气盆地中的低成熟油气资源具有重要意义。     

马陵山台地磁异常与地震关系的研究

用一阶差分法分析了马陵山台与泰安台地磁场垂直分量Z的变化,用转换函数法分析地磁场3个分量ΔZ、ΔD、ΔH的变化,用加卸载响应比法研究了地磁场极值的变化。 研究发现在中强地震前马陵山台的地磁场值存在明显的异常变化。 此结果对地震预报有一定的实用价值。     

A sample reconstruction method based on a modified reservoir index for flood frequency analysis of non-stationary hydrological series

Flood extremes, affected by climate change and intense human activities, exhibit non-stationary characteristics. As a result, the stationarity assumption of traditional flood frequency analysis (FFA) cannot be satisfied. Generally, the impacts of human activities, especially water conservancy projects (i.e., reservoirs), on extreme flood series are much greater than those of climate change; therefore, new FFA methods must be developed to address the non-stationary flood extremes associated with large numbers of reservoirs. In this study, a new sample reconstruction method is proposed to convert the reservoir-influenced annual maximum flow (AMF) series from non-stationary to stationary, thus warranting the feasibility of the traditional FFA approach for non-stationary cases. To be more specifically, a modified reservoir index (MRI(t)) is proposed and the original non-stationary AMF series are converted to stationary series by multiplying by a scalar factor 1/(1 ? MRI(t)), and thus traditional FFA can be adopted. Besides, Bayesian theory was applied to analyze the effect of uncertainty on the designed reconstructed AMF. As an example, the proposed method was applied to observations from Huangzhuang station located on the Hanjiang River. The original AMF observations from Huangzhuang displayed nonstationarity for the continuous construction of reservoirs in the basin. After applying the new method of sample reconstruction, the original AMF observations became stationary, and the designed AMFs were estimated using the reconstructed series and compared with those estimated based on the original observation series. In addition, Bayesian theory is adopted to quantify the uncertainty of designed reconstructed AMF and provide the expectation of the sampling distribution.     

基于洪水预报系统误差反演的多河段联合校正方法

提出一种基于洪水预报误差系统反演的多河段联合校正方法.采用马斯京根法矩阵方程描述多河段多区间入流的河道汇流过程,基于动力系统反演理论建立洪水预报误差的递推方程,最后利用修正后的多河段状态变量经演算得到预报断面的洪水过程,进而达到多河段联合校正目的.对大渡河上游的应用示例结果表明：多河段联合校正方法考虑了河系中断面间的水力联系及预报误差在时程上的传递规律,可充分利用上游多断面实测和校正信息进行下游预报断面的误差修正,因此具有更高的校正精度和稳定性.     

Safety assessment for dams of the cascade reservoirs system of Lancang River in extreme situations

Numerous dams have been constructed in the midstream and downstream regions of Lancang River, which form a complex cascade reservoirs system. The safety of dams is critical for water resource management of the whole system. To check the safety of dams, this study used the MIKE 11 model to simulate flood routing along the Lancang River from Xiaowan dam to Jinghong dam under extreme situations of 100-, 500-, 1000-, 5000-, and 10,000-year design floods throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system. The design flood events used as the input for the MIKE 11 model contains the design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs and corresponding flood hydrographs of the intermediate areas. The design flood hydrograph of the upstream reservoirs was obtained using the Equal Frequency Factor Method, and the corresponding flood hydrograph of the intermediate areas was obtained using the Equivalent Frequency Regional Composition Method. The results show that all dams are safe for the 100-, 500-, 1000-, and 5000-year design flood situations throughout the whole cascade reservoirs system, whereas the Manwan and Jinghong dams have a risk of overtopping under a 10,000-year design flood. The curves showing the relationship between the highest water level and return period for the dams are also presented.     

大渡河猴子岩水库入库洪水过程预报-实时校正-概率预报集成

与传统确定性预报相比,洪水概率预报能够为防洪调度决策提供更为丰富的信息。以大渡河猴子岩水库以上流域为研究区,建立新安江次洪模型,并采用动态系统响应曲线进行实时洪水预报校正。在确定性预报校正基础上,建立基于水文不确定性处理器（HUP）的次洪概率预报模型,定量分析预报不确定性,实现入库洪水概率预报。结果表明：(1)利用猴子岩流域2009 2019年水文气象资料,建立的新安江次洪模型整体精度较高,率定期和验证期的洪量和洪峰相对误差均在±20%以内,平均确定性系数分别为0.69和0.72;经动态系统响应曲线校正后,洪峰和洪量误差均有降低,率定期和验证期的确定性系数分别提高0.13和0.09。(2)以2020年3场洪水未来48 h预报降雨为输入,新安江模型预报精度不高,且随着预见期增长而降低,但经动态系统响应曲线校正后,整体预报精度有所提高,洪量相对误差减小幅度超50%,确定性系数提高幅度超60%。(3)HUP次洪概率预报模型提供的分布函数中位数Q50的预报精度在一定程度上优于校正后的确定性预报;提供的90%置信区间覆盖率均在90%左右,离散度均在0.40以下,能以相对较窄的区间覆盖大部分实测值...     

基于主成分分析的干旱综合指标构建及其应用

探讨了干旱综合指标的构建,提出采用主成分分析法将降雨、径流及土壤含水量等水文气象要素融合为一个干旱综合指标,并将该指标应用于干旱过程识别和干旱频率分析,且以南盘江上游西桥水文站以上区域为例,将基于干旱综合指标计算的干旱重现期同基于降雨、径流和土壤含水量等单指标计算的干旱重现期进行对比分析。结果表明:采用主成分分析法构建的干旱综合指标是合理可行的。     

山东省西北部中低温地热田层状热储地热资源储量计算方法探讨

鲁西北地热田层状热储中的地下热水,是深层承压水。用热储法计算鲁西北地热田状热储的可采资源量不符合中低温地下热水的运动规律。作者经过多年的地热勘察研究实践,结合鲁西北地热田的勘察研究程度实际．经过深思熟虑的理论思考和对未来区域地质环境未雨绸缪的分析预测,有的放矢地提出符合深层承压水运动规律的层状热储地下热水可采资源量的计算方法。