青藏高原东部地区降水的定量数值预报初探

运用LASGη坐标有限区域数值预报模式对青藏高原东部的川、渝两省市1988年的18次强降水过程进行了不同方式下的定量降水预报的数值模拟,并根据中国气象局制定的有关规定对模拟预报结果进行了评估.该区域地形复杂,天气系统多变,对数值预报模式有较高的要求,LASGη坐标模式以其比较完善的动力框架和物理过程处理方法获得了较好的预报结果,其对小雨、中雨、大雨预报的TS评分可超过主观预报的水平.     

2010年7月19日新乡大暴雨天气分析

利用常规观测资料、卫星云图资料、雷达回波和NCEP全球最终分析资料(FNL),对2010年7月19日新乡区域性大暴雨过程进行了诊断分析.结果表明:在西南涡与副高相互作用的天气形势下,中低层切变线等影响系统造成了这次区域性大暴雨;对流层中低层副高外围强盛的西南急流将海上充沛的水汽输送到大暴雨区并在此汇集,造成新乡地区上空...     

气候变暖对我国南方水稻可种植区的影响

利用我国南方稻区214站1961—2009年逐日气象资料,研究气候变化对南方水稻可种植区的影响。研究结果显示：气候变暖使南方稻区活动积温（日平均气温≥10℃）明显增加,49年增加了324.4℃?d。同时水稻生长季长度也明显延长,49年延长了17.9 d。双季稻可种植区北界明显北移,三季稻可种植区北界略有北移,20世纪60—80年代,双季稻可种植区仅限于长江以南地区,但21世纪初以来的10年双季稻可种植区北界移到长江以北,即向北推移近300 km,从而使新增双季稻可种植区扩展到四川东北部、贵州东部、重庆、湖北大部、安徽中部以及江苏南部。     

Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for?>?100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.     

多元判据综合评估中期天气客观相似预报模式

提出一个对多元判据综合评估的中期天气客观相似预报模式。模式应用同中期天气过程的时间—空间尺度相适应的经过时间滤波的大气环流背景为客观判据，比较全面地评估了预报时刻前后多层次、多要素的大气环流动态变化的相似，通过定义相似指数综合评估在多元判据下样本的相似程度，从相似时域的历史样本中找到较佳相似的中期过程，预测未来l～10天的中期天气过程。模式检验和预报试验表明该模式具有预报技巧。     

Baseline predictability of daily east Asian summer monsoon circulation indices

The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method is adopted to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity indices on a synoptic timescale. The predictability limit of EASM indices varies widely according to the definitions of indices. EASM indices defined by zonal shear have a limit of around 7 days, which is higher than the predictability limit of EASM indices defined by sea level pressure (SLP) difference and meridional wind shear (about 5 days). The initial error of EASM indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear shows a faster growth than indices defined by zonal wind shear. Furthermore, the indices defined by zonal wind shear appear to fluctuate at lower frequencies, whereas the indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear generally fluctuate at higher frequencies. This result may explain why the daily variability of the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear tends be more predictable than those defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. Analysis of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for EASM indices obtained from observations and from NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) historical weather forecast dataset shows that GEFS has a higher forecast skill for the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear than for indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. The predictability limit estimated by the NLLE method is shorter than that in GEFS. In addition, the June-September average TCC skill for different daily EASM indices shows significant interannual variations from 1985 to 2015 in GEFS. However, the TCC for different types of EASM indices does not show coherent interannual fluctuations.     

基于改进的累积气旋能量指数评估西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO的关系

采用1977—2008年日本气象厅(JMA)TC最佳路径集资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)的ENSO资料,设计了一个考虑热带气旋(TC)尺度信息的累积气旋能量指数(SACE),据此分析了西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO之间的关系。结果表明:相比于不考虑尺度效应的ACE,引入TC尺度信息的SACE增加了较大强度、较大尺度TC活动水平的权重,能够更加准确地刻画TC强度及其影响,其与Ni1o指数的相关性进一步增强。SACE能够更好地表征西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO年际变化的关系,其对ENSO位相的依赖性相对于ACE更为敏感,是一个能更好预测ENSO状态的因子。TC强度、生命史、频数以及尺度均对SACE有一定的贡献,但生命史的贡献最大,这一方面说明ENSO主要通过调制TC生命史来影响SACE,另一方面也说明相对于强度、频数和尺度而言,TC生命史更能影响SACE中的ENSO信号。     

基于CloudSat资料的冷涡对流云带垂直结构特征

利用CloudSat卫星资料、NCEP再分析资料和FY-2C卫星可见光云图分析了2006年7月20—24日我国东北一次冷涡过程不同时期对流云的垂直结构以及云内中小尺度的结构,发现在冷涡发展阶段的初期,暖锋对流结构表现为孤立的回波系统多,强对流深厚,对流系统体现为孤立、深厚的特征。在冷涡发展成熟阶段,回波强度比冷涡发展初期的对流系统有所减弱,且为浅薄的对流系统。冷涡系统影响下发展的锢囚锋回波系统顶部呈现独特的结构特征:东南部为干冷空气侵入造成的回波区, 中部为锢囚锋主体对流区, 西北部为暖锋遇冷锋抬升作用形成的回波区。在锢囚锋尾部存在冰水含量与液态水含量分层现象,干冷空气侵入层在5 km高度左右,在干冷空气侵入层上部为冰水含量分布的弱回波区,下部为液态水分布的弱回波区。在冷涡成熟阶段,对流系统分布在冷涡外沿,表现为孤立的对流系统,冰水含量多的对流系统主要在冷涡的北面,而液态水主要分布在冷涡中心零度层以下。     

雷州半岛海风环流的数值研究

利用1984年N1月—1985年2月和1985年5—8月的欧洲中期预报中心格点资料,计算了北半球低频(40—50)天扰动动能和正压动能的分布以及时间平均气流与低频扰动的相互作用.发现高空低频扰动动能的高值区与西风急流的纬向非对称性和经向切变关系密切。在西风急流的出口区,特别是东亚西风急流的出口区,时间平均气流向低频扰动输送动能,这些地区的低频正压性也最强.亚洲季风区低频正压动能较小。提出可以用低频正压动能与低频动能的比值作为低频扰动的“结构参数”,“结构参数”为0.5的等值线可作为区分热带地区低频振荡与中高纬地区低频振荡的特征线.     

贵州省近30a秋风的气候特征分析

利用1981—2010年30 a贵州省78站逐日日平均气温数据和NCEP/NCAR逐日的再分析资料,采用合成、EOF分解、傅立叶滤波等方法,分析了贵州省秋风的气候特征。结果表明:贵州省秋风天气强度有自西向东部或向东南部、东北部递减的分布规律。贵州省异常秋风过程次数的空间分布表现为全省各站呈同位相变化,进入2000年后,秋风过程次数由全省秋风偏弱偏少型转为全省秋风偏多偏强型。在环流场上,纬向西风在不断东移的过程中不断分裂出短波槽引导冷空气南下影响贵州,形成秋风天气过程,因而造成的秋风过程时间较长,强度较大。对秋风过程的环流场进行滤波表明:1波对于秋风过程有着十分显著的影响,而1波、2波在时间上的配合对于秋风过程也非常重要。