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331.
Shucong Ai Quanliang Chen Jianping Li Ruiqiang Ding Quanjia Zhong 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2017,53(2):243-256
The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) method is adopted to quantitatively determine the predictability limit of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity indices on a synoptic timescale. The predictability limit of EASM indices varies widely according to the definitions of indices. EASM indices defined by zonal shear have a limit of around 7 days, which is higher than the predictability limit of EASM indices defined by sea level pressure (SLP) difference and meridional wind shear (about 5 days). The initial error of EASM indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear shows a faster growth than indices defined by zonal wind shear. Furthermore, the indices defined by zonal wind shear appear to fluctuate at lower frequencies, whereas the indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear generally fluctuate at higher frequencies. This result may explain why the daily variability of the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear tends be more predictable than those defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. Analysis of the temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill for EASM indices obtained from observations and from NCEP’s Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS) historical weather forecast dataset shows that GEFS has a higher forecast skill for the EASM indices defined by zonal wind shear than for indices defined by SLP difference and meridional wind shear. The predictability limit estimated by the NLLE method is shorter than that in GEFS. In addition, the June-September average TCC skill for different daily EASM indices shows significant interannual variations from 1985 to 2015 in GEFS. However, the TCC for different types of EASM indices does not show coherent interannual fluctuations. 相似文献
332.
区域碳排放转移的演变特征与结构分解及减排对策分析——以河南省为例 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
通过耦合投入产出分析方法和结构分解模型,探讨2002~2010年区域碳排放转移的演变特征、驱动因素及其地理源特征。研究发现:2002~2010年流出和流入河南省的贸易隐含碳排放均处于不断增加的趋势,其中流出贸易隐含碳排放主要是受外部最终需求的影响,且主要集中在中国的中部和东南部地区,而流入贸易隐含碳排放则主要是受本地最终需求和本地最终产品结构的影响最为显著,且主要来源于中国的东部、东北部和中部地区。研究还发现,为减轻贸易对区域碳排放及其减排责任的影响,开展区域合作来共同减排比单个地区独自应对更为有利,但在区域合作中各地区的获益程度可能会有所差别。 相似文献
333.
CHEN Xuan SHAN Xiaoran SHI Zhaoji ZHANG Jiaen QIN Zhong XIANG Huimin WEI Hui 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2021,12(5):593-599
With the rapid development of the economy, acid rain has become one of the major environmental problems that endanger human health. Being the largest developing country, the environmental problems caused by acid rain are of increasing concern with the rapid industrialization and urbanization in China. Recently, many researchers have focused on acid rain. To better understand the temporal and spatial dynamics of acid rain in China, the monitoring data on acid rain from 1998 to 2018 were studied using ArcGIS 10.2. The results show that the proportion of acid rain cities, the frequency, and the area of acid rain were decreasing, however, the situation still remains serious. Overall, the chemical type of acid rain was mainly sulfuric acid rain. However, the concentration ratio of SO4 2-/NO3 - decreased by 81.90% in 2018 compared with 1998, and presented a decreasing trend, which indicates that the contribution of nitrate to precipitation acidity has been increasing year by year. This research will help us to understand the distribution characteristics and causes of acid rain in China, and it may provide an effective reference for the prevention and control of acid rain in China. 相似文献
334.
335.
Changes in production potentials of rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin of China under climate change: A multi-model ensemble approach 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Zhan Tian Yinghao Ji Laixiang Sun Xinliang Xu Dongli Fan Honglin Zhong Zhuoran Liang Ficsher Gunther 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(11):1700-1714
Rapeseed is one of the major oil crops in China and it is very sensitive to climate change. The Yangtze River Basin is the main rapeseed production area in China. Therefore, a better understanding of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production in the basin is of both scientific and practical importance to Chinese oil industry and food security. In this study, based on climate data from 5 General Circulation Models (GCMs) with 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in 2011–2040 (2020s), 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s), we assessed the changes in rapeseed production potential between the baseline climatology of 1981–2010 and the future climatology of the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. The key modelling tool – the AEZ model – was updated and validated based on the observation records of 10 representative sites in the basin. Our simulations revealed that: (1) the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on rapeseed production increases with time; (2) in the middle of this century (2050s), total rapeseed production would increase significantly; (3) the average production potential increase in the 2050s for the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin is 0.939, 1.639 and 0.339 million tons respectively; (4) areas showing most significant increases in production include southern Shaanxi, central and eastern Hubei, northern Hunan, central Anhui and eastern Jiangsu. 相似文献
336.
Soil erosion has become a major global environmental problem and is particularly acute on the Loess Plateau (LP), China. It is therefore highly important to control this process in order to improve ecosystems, protect ecological security, and maintain the harmonious relationship between humans and nature. We compared the effects of rainfall and land use (LU) patterns on soil erosion in different LP watersheds in this study in order to augment and improve soil erosion models. As most research on this theme has so far been focused on individual study areas, limited analyses of rainfall and LU patterns on soil erosion within different- scale watersheds has so far been performed, a discrepancy which might influence the simulation accuracies of soil erosion models. We therefore developed rainfall and LU pattern indices in this study using the soil erosion evaluation index as a reference and applied them to predict the extent of this process in different-scale watersheds, an approach which is likely to play a crucial role in enabling the comprehensive management of this phenomenon as well as the optimized design of LU patterns. The areas considered in this study included the Qingjian, Fenchuan, Yanhe, and Dali river watersheds. Results showed that the rainfall erosivity factor (R) tended to increase in these areas from 2006 to 2012, while the vegetation cover and management factor (C) tended to decrease. Results showed that as watershed area increased, the effect of rainfall pattern on soil erosion gradually decreased while patterns in LU trended in the opposite direction, as the relative proportion of woodland decreased and the different forms of steep slope vegetation cover became more homogenous. As watershed area increased, loose soil and craggy terrain properties led to additional gravitational erosion and enhanced the effects of both soil and topography. 相似文献
337.
基于改进的累积气旋能量指数评估西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO的关系 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
采用1977—2008年日本气象厅(JMA)TC最佳路径集资料和美国气候预测中心(CPC)的ENSO资料,设计了一个考虑热带气旋(TC)尺度信息的累积气旋能量指数(SACE),据此分析了西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO之间的关系。结果表明:相比于不考虑尺度效应的ACE,引入TC尺度信息的SACE增加了较大强度、较大尺度TC活动水平的权重,能够更加准确地刻画TC强度及其影响,其与Ni1o指数的相关性进一步增强。SACE能够更好地表征西北太平洋TC活动与ENSO年际变化的关系,其对ENSO位相的依赖性相对于ACE更为敏感,是一个能更好预测ENSO状态的因子。TC强度、生命史、频数以及尺度均对SACE有一定的贡献,但生命史的贡献最大,这一方面说明ENSO主要通过调制TC生命史来影响SACE,另一方面也说明相对于强度、频数和尺度而言,TC生命史更能影响SACE中的ENSO信号。 相似文献
338.
1 SignificanceofSolarStokesSpectrumObservationDuetothedevelopmentinobservinginstrument,theconceptofsolarspectrumshouldbegeneralized .Inthepast,itisonlyassignedtotheordinaryorunpolarizedspectrumrecordingthewavelength distributedintensityofthecontinuumand… 相似文献
339.
中尺度客观分析方法的对比分析 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
本文应用两种滤波方法对常规高空资料进行滤波,以分离出中尺度或次天气尺度系统。第一种方法取Shapiro和夏大庆等人设计的算子;第二种方法取Barne设计的滤波算子,用不同权重常数进行试验。 分析表明,两种方法都可以进行尺度分离。就分离效果来看,以权重常数较大的(14)式中尺度分离功能最佳;其次是(1)式和权重常数较小的(14)式。同时还表明,低层中尺度系统与强对流天气(大暴雨)有较好的对应关系,大暴雨出现在中尺度气旋与中尺度反气旋之间,偏于中尺度反气旋一方。 相似文献
340.