Multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling of daily activity satisfaction using GPS-integrated activity diary data

In this research, we match web-based activity diary data with daily mobility information recorded by GPS trackers for a sample of 709 residents in a 7-day survey in Beijing in 2012 to investigate activity satisfaction. Given the complications arising from the irregular time intervals of GPS-integrated diary data and the associated complex dependency structure, a direct application of standard (spatial) panel data econometric approaches is inappropriate. This study develops a multi-level temporal autoregressive modelling approach to analyse such data, which conceptualises time as continuous and examines sequential correlations via a time or space-time weights matrix. Moreover, we manage to simultaneously model individual heterogeneity through the inclusion of individual random effects, which can be treated flexibly either as independent or dependent. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are developed for model implementation. Positive sequential correlations and individual heterogeneity effects are both found to be statistically significant. Geographical contextual characteristics of sites where activities take place are significantly associated with daily activity satisfaction, controlling for a range of situational characteristics and individual socio-demographic attributes. Apart from the conceivable urban planning and development implications of our study, we demonstrate a novel statistical methodology for analysing semantic GPS trajectory data in general.     

Proof of homothally of Pheopolykrikos hartmannii and details of cyst germination process

Resting cysts play crucial roles in the ecology of dino?agellates, especially in wintering or surviving unfavorable conditions, seeding harmful algal blooms(HABs), and facilitating the geographic expansion. Encystment of dino?agellates is tightly coupled with sexual reproduction in most cases, which can occur either through homothallism(self-fertilization) or heterothallism(intercrossing of +/-strains). The types of sexual reproduction have important ecological implications. The toxic and HAB-forming dino?agellate, Pheopolykrikoides hartmannii has been previously reported to be heterothallic. Here, we provide visual con?rmation of homothally of P. hartmannii and the ?rst detailed visual recording of cyst germination based on the observations of a clonal isolate from Jiaozhou Bay, China. To document the homothallism, we ?rst observed cell pairs in sexual mating, planozygotes with two longitudinal ?agella, and cysts with typical morphology as described previously from the clonal culture. We then germinated a single cyst, established a new clonal culture from one of the two daughter cells after the ?rst cell division of the germling(i.e. from the diploid germling to two haploid cells), and produced cysts again from the newly established clonal culture. For the observation of the germination time-series, we took micrographs and videos to show all germination processes, particularly with an interesting observation of the short amoeboid stage of the germling releasing from the archeopyle(～15 s), which was a landmark of the germination process and has not been reported elsewhere. This de?nitive evidence of homothallic sexuality and cyst production in P. hartmannii provides a new insight into the biology and ecology of the species, particularly a mechanism that may partly account for the population dynamics and ubiquitous distribution of the species.     

Sea-level changes controlled detrital sediment inputs to the Bicol Shelf in the western Philippine Sea since 150 ka

Detrital sediments derived from the Philippine Islands are one of the main sources of deep-sea sediments in the western Philippine Sea.However,systematic research on their characteristics and transport mechanisms are lacking.We used parametric end-member analysis to quantitatively partition the grain size of detrital sediments in core MD06-3052 from the Bicol Shelf in the western Philippine Sea;three endmembers EMI,EM2,and EM3,whose respective modes were at 2,10,and 45 μm,were separated.We also measured the Sr and Nd isotopic compositions of different size fractions(4 and 20 μm) of the detrital sediments and the results showed that the detrital sediments mainly originate from the Philippine Islands.Components EMI and EM2 are transported to the Bicol Shelf mainly by surface and bottom currents from the islands,and component EM3 is delivered by gravity flow from the exposed shelf during low sea-level stands.The content of the total detrital fraction and the three end-members,as well as the mass accumulation rates(MARs) of the coarse detritus(EM2 and EM3),were considerably higher during glacial periods(40-14 ka and 150-130 ka) than during other intervals;the glacials corresponded to a low sea level,while the MAR of the fine detritus(EMI) did not increase remarkably during 40-14 ka.We therefore concluded that the input of coarse detritus to the Bicol Shelf from the islands was mainly controlled by sea-level change.Variations of the input of fine-grained detritus(EM1) was influenced not only by sea level but also by ocean currents and regional precipitation.Overall,our results help understand "source-to-sink" processes in the western Pacific marginal seas and their response to global change.     

西宁城市居民家内外活动时间分配及影响因素——基于结构方程模型的分析

为深入挖掘居民不同类型活动的出行需求,进而制定更加精细化的交通政策,从活动分析法的视角出发,基于结构方程模型分析西宁城市居民家内外活动时间分配的机理及影响因素。结果表明:工作日,居民的通勤出行仍然是城市交通需要重点解决的问题。休息日,工作和通勤时间长的居民更倾向于在家内进行维持活动;而休息日不工作的居民更容易产生进行家外维持活动的出行需求。不同社会经济属性的居民对于家内外时间分配具有差异化特征。单位大院职住接近的特征对于减少居民通勤出行时间仍然具有积极作用,但维持性活动时间分配与其他类型社区居民已经没有显著差异。     

地面报中高山站资料的应用分析

无线电探空仪观测和地面观测资料作为天气分析和数值预报最常用、最重要的两种资料数据源,两者时空分辨率有着明显的差异。如何利用地面观测资料的高时空分辨率特点来补充探空观测资料在一些地区的欠缺和不足,特别是地面高山站资料的使用对对流层底层环流场的影响及对精细化数值天气预报风场分析指示意义等都需要进一步的探究。文章通过对地面高山站资料在资料同化中不同的使用方式的分析,探索其作为探空资料的补充在资料同化中的贡献。个例试验选取2013年6月29日00时地面资料和探空观测资料进行资料同化,试验方法:分别将地面高山站资料作为探空资料和地面资料应用于同化分析中,结果表明:地面高山站资料当探空资料使用时对850和925 hPa风场同化分析有正效果。在地面高山站资料当探空资料使用和当地面资料使用的对比中,其24 h 850和700 hPa高度和风场预报试验差异不显著;但24 h降水预报结果显示:地面高山站资料当探空资料使用对降水强度和位置的预报都有弱的正贡献。连续试验的降水预报检验证明:在地面高山站较多的西南区,高山站资料当探空资料使用在小雨、中雨、暴雨等量级的预报评分要优于高山站资料当地面报使用,且其预报偏差也较小;在中国区降水预报检验高山站资料当探空资料和地面报使用差异不大。     

GRAPES_MesoV4.0主要技术改进和预报效果检验

针对GRAPES_Meso V3.0存在的降水量偏大、模式运行不稳定、近地面温度预报偏差较大、可同化资料偏少以及分辨率偏低等问题,开展了多方面的改进工作:引入变分质量控制以及探空湿度的偏差订正,实现了GPS/PW资料、FY-2E云导风资料以及无线电掩星资料的同化应用,提高了模式分辨率,引入四阶水平扩散方案,调整了微物理参数化方案与动力框架的耦合方案,完善了地面辐射能量平衡方程以及优化了后处理雷达组合反射率因子的诊断方案,并集成所有改进成果形成新的业务化GRAPES_Meso V4.0。批量试验结果表明:GRAPES_Meso V4.0降水ETS评分普遍提高,同时预报偏差明显降低,月平均降水更接近实况,且能够较好地刻画雨带细节;2 m温度预报偏差有较为显著的改善,大部分地区24 h预报有1~2℃左右的降低,有些地区有3~5℃的降低;GRAPES_Meso V4.0对高度场、温度场和风场的改进效果比较显著,500 hPa的温度、风速、位势高度场的相关系数均有显著提高,850 hPa的均方根误差也明显降低,整体性能明显高于GRAPES_Meso V3.0。     

太平洋几种海面要素的升降趋势及其对海平面上升的影响

对ＣＯＡＤＳ资料中１９５０－１９９２年太平洋４°×８°方区的海水表层温度及海面气温、气压、风速序列数据，进行了时间序列分析。分析结果表明：太平洋海表气温和水温年上升率分别为０．００６３℃·ａ（－１）和０．００２６℃·ａ（－１）。两者的变化趋势在赤道太平洋都有一个年上升率高值区；而在东海以北的西北太平洋广大海区，都有一个年下降率的低值区。西太平洋海面气压呈上升趋势，东太平洋则相反。气温和水温的升降区域分布特征与风速分量增强和减弱的变化趋势有关。文章还指出，中国和日本沿岸今后几十年海平面变化趋势的预测模式，应以太平洋或全球海平面上升趋势的预测为基础，加上本海区海平面的局地变化订正。     

The buckling of GRP hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells under external hydrostatic pressure

The paper reports on a theoretical and an experimental investigation into six GRP hemi-ellipsoidal dome shells, which were tested to destruction under external hydrostatic pressure. All six domes were of oblate shape and of three different aspect ratios. Each aspect ratio consisted of two dome shells, one made from two layers of glass fibre and one made from three layers of glass fibre. The theoretical analysis was via the finite element method where a non-linear theory was used which allowed for both geometrical and material non-linearity. Comparison between theory and experiment was good.     

Size-fractionated phytoplankton standing stock and primary production in the Bohai Sea during late spring

During June 1997 cruise by R/V Science No.l, observations on temporal and spatialvariations of the size-fractionated phytoplankton standing stock and primary production were carried out in the Bohai Sea. The size-fractionated chlorophyll a (Chl a) and primary production, photosynthet-ically available radiation (PAR), as well as the related physico-oceanographic and zooplanktonic parameters were measured at five time-series observation stations representing sub-areas of the sea. Results obtained show that there were the marked features of spatial zonation of Chl a and primary production in the Bohai Sea. The values in the Laizhou Bay, the Liaodong Gulf and the Bohai Gulf were high and showed close relation with tidal fluctuations, i.e. high Chl a concentration occurred during high tide in the Laizhou Bay, and during low tide in the Liaodong Gulf and the Bohai Gulf. In the strait and the central region of the Bohai Sea, the values were relatively low and no relationship with tidal fluctuation could be foun     

Brief Account of Breakwater Construction in China

-The construction of breakwaters in China in more than 40 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China is reviewed. The construction of two main types of breakwater, upright breakwaters and rubble mound breakwaters, and the way in which they are built are expounded. Recommendations to improve the technology for future breakwater construction are presented.