区域海气耦合模式FROALS的发展及其应用

区域海气耦合模式是研究局地海气相互作用过程影响气候变率的重要平台,也是对全球气候模式进行"动力降尺度"的重要工具.本文介绍了LASG(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics)/IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics)发展的区域海气耦合模式FROALS(Flexible Regional Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model),并总结了过去五年围绕该区域海气耦合模式开展的研究工 作.FROALS的特点之一是有两个完全不同的大气模式分量和海洋模式分量选项,可以适应不同的模拟研究需 求.针对区域海气耦合模式在西北太平洋地区的模拟偏差,通过分步骤考察不同大气模式分量和不同海洋模式分量对模式模拟性能的影响,指出大气模式是导致区域海气耦合偏差的主要分量.通过改进对流触发的相对湿度阈值标准,有效地改善了此前区域海气耦合模式在亚洲季风区普遍出现的"模拟海温冷偏差".改进的FROALS对西北太平洋地区的大气和海洋环境有较好的模拟能力,合理地再现了西北太平洋地区表层洋流气候态和年际变率.较之非耦合模式,考虑区域海气耦合过程后,改进了东亚和南亚地区的降水和热带气旋潜势年际变率的模拟.最后,针对东亚—西北太平洋地区,利用FROALS对IAP/LASG全球气候模式模拟和预估的结果进行了动力降尺 度,得到了东亚区域50 km高分辨率区域气候变化信息.分析显示,FROALS模拟得到的东亚区域气候较之全球气候模式和非耦合区域气候模式结果具有明显的"增值",显示出区域海气耦合模式在该区域良好的应用前景.     

我国海工装备制造业全要素生产率研究

海工装备制造业是我国拓展蓝色经济空间、推动产业转型升级的重要领域。文章以15家海工装备上市企业2010—2014年数据为基础,采用Malmquist生产力指数测算我国海工装备制造业全要素生产率变化情况,并利用面板数据模型分析影响这一变化的主要因素,提出加大海工装备制造领域人力资本投资,谨慎、有针对性地制定产业补贴政策,推动产业健康有序发展3点建议。     

Multi‐model ensemble prediction of terrestrial evapotranspiration across north China using Bayesian model averaging

Using high‐quality dataset from 12 flux towers in north China, the performance of four evapotranspiration (ET) models and the multi‐model ensemble approaches including the simple averaging (SA) and Bayesian model average (BMA) were systematically evaluated in this study. The four models were the single‐layer Penman–Monteith (P–M) model, the two‐layer Shuttleworthe–Wallace (S–W) model, the advection–aridity (A–A) model, and a modified Priestley–Taylor (PT‐JPL). Based on the mean value of Taylor skill (S) and the regression slope between measured and simulated ET values across all sites, the order of overall performance of the individual models from the best to the worst were: S–W (0.88, 0.87), PT‐JPL (0.80, 1.17), P–M (0.63, 1.73) and A–A (0.60, 1.68) [statistics stated as (Taylor skill, regression slope)]. Here, all models used the same values of parameters, LAI and fractional vegetation cover as well as the forcing meteorological data. Thus, the differences in model performance were mainly attributed to errors in model structure. To the ensemble approach, the BMA method has the advantage of generating more skillful and reliable predictions than the SA scheme. However, successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of its parameters, and some degradation in performance were observed when the BMA parameters generated from the training period were used for the validation period. Thus, it is necessary to explore the seasonal variations of the BMA parameters according the different growth stages. Finally, the optimal conditional density function of half‐hourly ET approximated well by the double‐exponential distribution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Failure characteristics of brittle rock containing two rectangular holes under uniaxial compression and coupled static-dynamic loads

Acta Geotechnica - To deeply understand the failure characteristics of defective rock under actual stress condition, impact tests were conducted on prismatic granite containing two rectangular...     

Effect of correlated random fields on nonlinear dynamic responses of gravity dam

Natural Hazards - Uncertainty will inevitably be introduced into the structural analysis, while randomness is an important manifestation of uncertainty. Based on the random field theory, the...     

Biodiversity changes of the Ordovician trilobites in the middle Yangtze region of South China

The biodiversity changes of trilobites in the middle Yangtze region of South China in the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event and the end-Ordovician mass extinction have been analysed. The Ordovician trilobites in this region originated in the early Tremadocian and radiated from the late Floian to the early Katian. Two peaks of diversity appeared in the late Dapingian to the early Darriwilian and the early Katian. The extinction occurred in the late Katian, followed by a survival period in the Hirnantian. The Whiterock fauna began to surpass the Ibex fauna during the early Katian and were dominant by the late Katian to the Hirnantian, indicating that Cambrian Evolutionary Fauna was gradually replaced. The study once again confirms the view that the effects of factors such as sea level, climate, oxygen content, nutrient supply, and tectogenesis differ temporally and to different degrees in different regions, resulting in differences in the vertical sequence and horizontal combination of ecosystems, which is the reason for the different evolution patterns of Ordovician trilobites in different regions.     

断裂对碳酸盐岩地层储集空间的影响〖KH*9〗 ——以塔里木盆地轮古东地区奥陶系碳酸盐岩地层为例

轮古东地区主要发育两期断裂,断裂使碳酸盐岩地层形成了以大型溶洞占主导,网状构造裂缝和孔洞相辅的溶洞裂缝储集空间体系。早期断裂主要控制了瘤状灰岩尖灭线西北的潜山高地岩溶,形成深切峡谷式沟壑相连的古地貌,流体溶蚀裂缝形成溶洞为主的储集空间。晚期断裂一方面形成新的储集空间并将早期形成的未充填或半充填的裂缝和溶蚀孔洞沟通; 另一方面,为大气淡水进入下部岩层提供了通道,形成在奥陶系下部地层发育的水平潜流带和深部缓流带岩溶体系。此外,火山热液沿两期断裂进入碳酸盐岩地层,对通道附近的碳酸盐岩产生显著的溶蚀,主导了深部的岩溶作用。     

蔬菜作物需水与节水灌溉气象服务

应用联合国粮农组织推荐的计算作物蒸散量的公式,计算了张家口坝上地区蔬菜作物的需水量;通过田间示范得出,膜下滴灌节水效果最好,其次是喷灌、再就是管灌。给出了蔬菜作物的平均需水灌溉量和不同节水模式下的灌溉量,并进行了节水灌溉调控气象服务。结果表明,按照作物需水和气象服务调控灌溉,不用投入资金可节水40%左右;工程节水加作物需水气象服务调控灌溉节水40%~70%。工程节水结合作物需水调控灌溉为最有效最经济的节水灌溉途径。