某些电化学分析方法在地震预报中的应用

本文简要介绍了离子选择电极、氧化还原电位(Eh)等电化学分析方法的原理、测试技术。並以1980年甘肃闾井3.4级地震取得的现场观测资料说明,氟离子、硝酸根、Eh等项目在地震前有较明显的前兆反应。以离子选择电极为主的电化学分析方法具有所需仪器设备较少、测定手段简便、便于现场实地观测、易于实现连续自动化等优点。是水化多项观测的切实可行的方法,必将在地震预报的研究中发挥一定的作用。     

The response of runoff components and glacier mass balance to climate change for a glaciated high-mountainous catchment in the Tianshan Mountains

Natural Hazards - Glaciers are important freshwater storage systems in the Tianshan Mountains. Under the context of climate change, quantifying changes in glacier mass balance, the melt-season...     

Water vapor transport and cross-equatorial flow over the Asian-Australia monsoon region simulated by CMIP5 climate models

The summer mean water vapor transport (WVT) and cross-equatorial flow (CEF) over the Asian-Australian monsoon region simulated by 22 coupled atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were evaluated. Based on climatology of the twentieth-century simulations, most of models have a reasonably realistic representation of summer monsoon WVT characterized by southeast water vapor conveyor belt over the South Indian Ocean and southwest belt from the Arabian Sea to the East Asian. The correlation coefficients between NCEP reanalysis and simulations of BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, FGOALS-s2, MIROC4h and MPI-ESM-LR are up to 0.8. The simulated CEF depicted by the meridional wind along the equator includes the Somali jet and eastern CEF in low atmosphere and the reverse circulation in upper atmosphere, which were generally consistent with NCEP reanalysis. Multi-model ensemble means (MME) can reproduce more reasonable climatological features in spatial distribution both of WVT and CEF. Ten models with more reasonable WVT simulations were selected for future projection studies, including BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, FGOALS-s2, FIO-ESM, GFDL-ESM2G, MRIOC5, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM-1M. Analysis based on the future projection experiments in RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5 show that the global warming forced by different RCP scenarios will results in enhanced WVT over the Indian area and the west Pacific and weaken WVT in the low latitudes of tropical Indian Ocean.     

关于经验性地震预报问题的思考

从科学认识活动的发展历程，特别是从科学观测性质两个方面论证了经验性预报存在的必然性和必要性，同时指出，只有将第三类观测提升为第二类观测才能真正实现物理预报。     

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.     

Experimental and finite difference modelling of borehole Mach waves1

A series of model experiments was performed in an ultrasonic laboratory to study the radiation of downhole sources in a variety of formations. Three models were used in the experiments. They were a Lucite model, a Lucite model with a free glass pipe in the centre, and a glass-cased soil model. In addition, a finite-difference modelling technique was used to simulate the wave propagation in these models and the results of the laboratory and numerical experiments are compared. In the Lucite borehole model the waveforms recorded in the experiment agree very well with the finite-difference synthetics. The snapshots of the wavefield from the finite-difference simulation show the radiation pattern of the P- and S-waves in the Lucite formation. These patterns are consistent with the theoretical calculations. In the Lucite model with the free glass pipe, the finite-difference synthetics are also in good agreement with the experimental observations, especially for the conical P-wave arrival. The angle between the wavefront of the conical P-wave and the borehole axis, observed from the snapshot, agrees with the theory. In the cased soil model, the arrival time of the finite-difference synthetics is in good agreement with the laboratory measurements. The relative amplitudes of the P-wave and the Mach wave are not correctly modelled because intrinsic attenuation is not included in the finite-difference calculation. The Mach cone angle from the snapshot agrees with the theoretical prediction. Finally, a finite-difference method was used to simulate Mach-wave propagation in a formation with two horizontal layers. In the case of two slow layers, the Mach-wave generated in the first layer is reflected back from and transmitted through the boundary and another Mach wave is generated at the second layer when the Stoneley wave travels into the second layer. In the case of a formation having one slow and one fast layer, the Mach wave generated in the slow layer is reflected back at the boundary and leaked into the fast layer. There is no Mach wave in the fast layer.     

全球海洋碳循环三维数值模拟研究

基于海洋环流模式POP和生物地球化学模型OCMIP-2,建立了全球海洋碳循环模式,并用于对全球海洋碳循环的模拟研究。该模式在大气CO₂为283×10-6条件下,积分3 100 a,达到工业革命前的平衡态。在此基础上,用历史时期观测的大气CO₂浓度进行强迫,模拟了历史时期的海洋碳循环。模拟的无机碳浓度、总碱度与基于观测得到的结果基本一致,模式能够较好地模拟全球碳循环过程。模拟结果表明,在北半球中高纬度和南半球的中纬度,海洋是大气CO₂的主要汇区;在赤道南北纬20°之间和南大洋50°S以南,海洋表现为大气CO₂的源区。在1980s海洋吸收CO₂速率(以C计)为1.38 Pg/a,1990s为1.55 Pg/a。海洋中人为碳在北大西洋含量最大,向下到达海底并向南输运到30°N附近;在南极附近,浓度较小,深度达到3 000 m;在中纬度,人为碳被限制在温跃层以上。     

Distribution of petroleum hydrocarbons in soils and the underlying unsaturated subsurface at an abandoned petrochemical site,North China

Contamination characteristics of petroleum hydrocarbons in soils and the underlying unsaturated subsurface were analysed by investigating and sampling at different depth of five boreholes named SH1 through SH5 at a typical petrochemical site, North China. Topsoil volatile organic gas measurement revealed that SH‐3 was the center of one pollution plume. Soil samples analysis showed that aromatic hydrocarbons and chlorinated hydrocarbons were major pollutants. Their maximum concentration was found at 6.5 and 14.6 m of SH‐2, 13 m of SH‐5, and 18.5 m of SH‐3. These pollutants are mostly accumulated on the interface between two different lithological layers, especially between the sand and silt clay layers. Denitrifying and iron reducing were main biogeochemical processes in this site. Under the influence of groundwater level fluctuation, free NAPLs passed through the boundary and dissolved into the lower groundwater. Knowledge of these associations between contaminant distributions and affecting factors could have implications for soil and groundwater pollution prevention and control. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

聚晶金刚石复合片残余热应力的影响因素

残余热应力是影响聚晶金刚石复合片(PDC)性能好坏的最重要因素之一。考虑聚晶金刚石层(PCD)与硬质合金层厚度比以及PDC压制过程中烧结温度的波动对聚晶金刚石复合片残余热应力的影响,在ANSYS中建立PDC模型,运用热-结耦合法分析PDC的残余热应力。计算表明,随着PCD层与硬质合金层厚度比由0.067增加到0.333,PCD层表面中心的压应力由1.61 GPa降低到380 MPa,PCD层最大径向压应力由1.61 GPa降低1.03 GPa左右,而PCD层边缘靠近界面附近最大轴向拉应力逐渐增大;随着PDC压制过程中烧结温度由1000℃升高到1500℃,PCD层的最大径向压应力、最大轴向拉应力以及最大剪应力等均逐渐增大。认为,在研究PDC合成新工艺过程中,应在保证PDC使用寿命的前提下尽量降低PCD层与硬质合金层厚度比;必须尽量切断原材料以及人为操作对温度的影响。     

A comparison of two global ocean-ice coupled models with different horizontal resolutions

A global eddy-permitting ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of 0.25 by 0.25 is established on the basis of Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS). Simulation results are compared with those of an intermediate resolution ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of about 1 by 1 . The results show that the simulated ocean temperature, ocean current and sea ice concentration from the eddy-permitting model are better than those from the intermediate resolution model. However, both the two models have the common problem of ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) that the majority of the simulated summer sea surface temperature (SST) is too warm while the majority of the simulated subsurface summer temperature is too cold. Further numerical experiments show that this problem can be alleviated by incorporating the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing into the vertical mixing scheme for both eddy-permitting and intermediate resolution models.