风廓线雷达回波信号强度定标方法

风廓线雷达返回信号功率定标通常通过返回信号信噪比和系统噪声功率的估算得到。该方法存在着噪声电平的确定、外部噪声等不确定性因素,影响了定标的精度。采用信号源分别对接收机和信号处理器进行定量测试,进而对雷达系统进行定标,是另一种可行的办法,该文利用这种方法对CFL-03风廓线雷达进行了定标,并利用该雷达在东莞2009年7月和8月探测资料与广州S波段天气雷达和地面雨量计资料进行比较。结果表明:用该定标方法得到的回波强度与天气雷达回波强度和地面雨量计资料估算的回波强度基本一致,平均标准差在1 dB左右,表明这种定标方法是可行的。     

１０～３０ｄ延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考———直面混沌

针对大气系统的混沌特性,提出了10~30 d延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考。可预报性问题,实质上是时空尺度问题,10~30 d的预报虽然超出了逐日天气的可预报时限,但仍存在着可预报的分量。以数值模式为基础,阐述了10~30 d延伸期可预报分量的提取方法。在此基础上,提出了针对可预报分量和混沌分量应采用不同的策略和方法。该设想可借鉴利用现有数值模式的变分同化系统,且无需构建新的模式,因此具有可行性。     

Three-dimensional variational data assimilation of WindSat ocean surface winds for the genesis and forecasting of tropical storm Henri

With available high-resolution ocean surface wind vectors retrieved from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratorys WindSat on Coriolis, the impact of these data on genesis and forecasting of tropical storm Henri is examined using the non-hydrostatic, fifth-generation mesoscale model (MM5) of Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research plus its newly released three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system. It is shown that the assimilation of the WindSat-retrieved ocean surface wind vectors in the 3DVAR system improves the model initialization fields by introducing a stronger vortex in the lower troposphere. As a result, the model reproduces the storm formation and track reasonably close to the observations. Compared to the experiment without the WindSat surface winds, the WindSat assimilation reduced an error between the model simulated track and observations of more than 80 km and also improved the storm intensity by nearly 2 hPa. It suggests that these data could provide early detection and prediction of tropical storms or hurricanes.     

关于超强台风“桑美”强度突变研究的几点思考

超强台风"桑美"在浙江省温州市苍南县登陆,登陆时中心附近最大风力达17级,中心气压920hPa,是近50年来登陆我国大陆最强的台风。为了认识超强台风"桑美"强度突然增强的机制机理,气象工作者做了许多有意义的工作,如"桑美"的观测分析、数值模拟、强度突增原因探究等。文章对以往研究成果进行了简述,指出了目前在此方面研究存在的问题,如数值模拟台风强度突增的量值偏小,强度突增的机理没有新的明显突破,以及气候变暖对台风强度突增如何影响涉及较少等。     

Comparison of manual and automatic methods for measurement of methane emission from rice paddy fields

The methane emission flux from rice paddies was simultaneously measured with automatic and manual methods in the suburban of Suzhou. Both methods were based on the static chamber/ GC-FID techniques. Detail analysis of the experimental results indicates: a) The data of methane emission measured with the automatic method is reliable. b) About 11 or 19 o’clock of local time is recommended as the optimum sampling time for the manual spot measurement of methane emission from rice paddies. The methane emission fluxes measured by manual sampling at local time other than the optimum time have to be corrected. The correction coefficient may be determined by automatic and continuous measurement. c) In order to get a more accurate result, an empirical correction factor, such as 18%, is recommended to correct the seasonally total amount of measured methane emission by enlarging the au-tomatically measured data or reducing the manually measured ones.     

四川省冰雹分布与地形因子关系分析

利用四川省数字高程模型(DEM)和1970—2014年四川省143个气象站点45年冰雹资料,使用相关分析、逐步回归、数字地形分析和分区统计等方法,研究了四川省冰雹分布与地形高程、坡度、坡向、经纬度、地形起伏度及地形切割深度的关系。研究结果表明:四川省冰雹分布有明显的地理分布特征,地形高程、经度、地形起伏度及西北偏西坡向等地形因子是四川省冰雹分布的主要影响因子。建立冰雹与主要地形影响因子的回归方程,模拟四川省冰雹空间分布,结果显示模拟值与实际值分布趋势一致,但模拟数据整体偏小。     

弹性波正演模拟中改进的非分裂式PML实现方法(英文)

在弹性波有限差分正演模拟中,吸收边界条件常用来吸收截断边界处引入的不期望边界反射,其中完全匹配层(PML)吸收边界条件被认为是目前最理想的吸收边界条件。但是PML吸收边界条件的传统实现却存在着很大不足:全局分裂式PML吸收边界条件实现简单但是需要占用太多内存;局部分裂式PML吸收边界条件需要考虑多个边界和角点区域,编程实现非常复杂;非分裂式PML吸收边界条件由于涉及卷积运算,计算量很大。本文基于非分裂式PML吸收边界条件,结合复频移伸展函数,提出了一种新的数值实现方法,其计算方程简单、占用内存小、编程实现容易,是对PML介质理论数值实现的改进和完善。     

Seismicity Quantification and Its Application to Medium-term Earthquake Prediction

Bed on the analysis of each parameter describing seismicity,we think A(b)-value can betterquantitatively describe the feature of the enhancement and quietness of seismicity in this paper. Thedata of moderate or small earthquakes during 1972～1996 in North China are used in space scanningof A(b)-value. The result shows that 2～3 years before most strong earthquakes there wereObviously anomaly zones of A(b)-value with very good prediction effect. Some problems about themedium-term prediction by using A(b)-value are also discussed.     

The magma evolution of Tianchi volcano, Changbaishan

The Changbaishan Tianchi volcano is composed of the basaltic rocks at the shield-forming stage, the trachyte and pantellerite at the cone-forming stage and modern eruption. Studies on their REE, incompatible elements and Sr, Nd, Pb isotopes suggest that rocks at different stages have a common magma genesis and close evolution relationship with differentiation crystallization playing the key role. The co-eruption of basaltic trachyandesite magma and pantellerite magma indicates that there exist both crustal magma chamber and mantle magma reservoir beneath the Tianchi volcano. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 49672109).     

风廓线雷达测风精度评估

采用风廓线雷达5波束探测模式的数据对测风精度进行评估分析,用垂直波束和其中两个相邻倾斜波束的探测数据构成一对计算因子,通过对同一距离高度上的4对计算因子进行误差分析,评估风廓线雷达的测风精度,得到水平风在垂直指向连续高度上的精度。对北京延庆CFL-08风廓线雷达2010年3,6,9,12月4个典型代表月份逐日连续探测资料进行了处理分析,结果表明:该雷达满足风速误差不大于1.5 m·s-1、风向误差不大于10°探测精度要求的最大探测高度6月、9月为8 km,3月、12月为6 km,基本符合该雷达探测高度的设计要求。信噪比、大气风场的不均匀性是影响雷达测风精度的主要因素:信噪比影响了高空的测风精度,-15 dB可以作为判断雷达测风可信数据最大探测高度的阈值;晴空大气出现的风场不均匀性对风廓线雷达的测风精度影响不大,降水出现时环境风场不均匀性造成水平风向、风速的测量误差较大,不能满足测风精度要求,特别是对流性降水发生前的1~2 h,水平风向、风速的方差增长迅速,可以作为强降水出现的预警指标。