最优气候相似法及其在降水预报中的应用

介绍了一种短期气候预测方法———最优气候相似法 ,并应用于张家界地区 1 999～ 2 0 0 2年 5～ 7月总降水预报中 ,结果显示最优气候相似法能够有效地提高短期气候的预测能力 ,特别对气候异常具有良好的反应能力 ,适合于短期气候业务预报。     

从安徽气候变化看2003年洪涝和高温的必然性

利用近 50年温度和降水资料研究了安徽夏季气候变化特征 ,解释了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝、高温等极端气候事件出现的必然性。研究结果表明 :(1 )近 50年来安徽夏季温度呈下降趋势 ,降水则呈增加趋势 ,两者变化是相协调的。目前夏季温度处于较低的气候基本态 ,降水处于高基本态。 (2 )无论是温度还是降水 ,其变率都在 2 0世纪80年代中后期开始上升 ,目前均处于高气候变率时期。降水的“两高”(高基本态和高气候变率 )结合决定了 2 0 0 3年夏季洪涝出现的必然性 ;温度的较低基本态决定了“凉夏”背景 ,但由于基本态的回升和变率的加大 ,仍会出现像 2 0 0 3年夏季的若干高温天气。 (3)最大熵谱估计表明 ,安徽夏季降水变化的主周期为 2 5年 ,反映了降水的准两年振荡特征     

多普勒雷达数据处理显示系统

多普勒天气雷达目前已经成为对短时强烈天气进行监测的主要手段之一。为了方便资料的处理和分析 ,将科研成果向业务应用转化 ,提高观测资料软件和资料处理能力 ,为预报员和科研人员提供方便 ,我们开发了多普勒雷达资料分析显示系统。该软件是兼原始数据处理、反演、显示功能于一体的雷达数据处理系统 ,有很好的兼容性和可移植性 ,其交互式、多线程、多窗口、多任务的汉化操作界面 ,灵活、简便 ,容易使用。根据用户需要 ,水平风场可用风矢量、风羽、流线或等值线等不同方式表达 ,多种水平变量也可以任意叠加     

岩石Kaiser效应测地应力原理中的若干问题研究

该文通过对几种不同类型岩石的实验研究，提出了关于在围压条件下影响岩石Kaiser效应的若干问题，分析了它们的声发射特征，为深部地应力测量提供了一种新的解决方法。     

土工织物加固软土路堤的有限元分析

采用有限元方法对土工织物加固软弱地基路堤的力学机理进行了研究.通过比较路基加筋和未加筋两种情况研究了土工织物的加固机理,结果表明土工织物对于提高路堤填筑高度、减少路堤侧向位移、均化路堤沉降以及加速超孔隙水压力消散有显著的效果.加筋路堤中土工织物的轴力受填筑高度、超孔压消散速度和接触面系数等因素的影响,路堤填筑高度和施工进度的控制有利于土工织物抗拉强度的发挥.对路堤安全系数的研究分析表明传统的极限平衡法验算路堤稳定性偏于保守,采用有限元方法能较好地反映土工织物的加筋作用,可以优化工程设计.     

A Corrected and Generalized Successive Random Additions Algorithm for Simulating Fractional Levy Motions

Simulation of subsurface heterogeneity is important for modeling subsurface flow and transport processes. Previous studies have indicated that subsurface property variations can often be characterized by fractional Brownian motion (fBm) or (truncated) fractional Levy motion (fLm). Because Levy-stable distributions have many novel and often unfamiliar properties, studies on generating fLm distributions are rare in the literature. In this study, we generalize a relatively simple and computationally efficient successive random additions (SRA) algorithm, originally developed for generating Gaussian fractals, to simulate fLm distributions. We also propose an additional important step in response to continued observations that the traditional SRA algorithm often generates fractal distributions having poor scaling and correlation properties. Finally, the generalized and modified SRA algorithm is validated through numerical tests.     

Kinetic-simulating experiment combined with GC-IRMS analysis: application to identification and assessment of coal-derived methane from Zhongba Gas Field (Sichuan Basin, China)

The main purpose of this study is to model the δ¹³C values of methane derived from coal by combining kinetic-simulating experiment with the gas chromatography-isotope ratio mass spectrum (GC-IRMS) analysis. The stable carbon isotopic variation of methane in pyrolysates with heating temperature indicates that the assumptions for both a constant kinetic isotope effect (α) and a uniform initial isotopic composition (δ¹³C_o) are impractical for explaining the carbon isotopic fractionation during coalification. For purposes of simplification, two approaches are used in this paper to deal with the heterogeneity of terrestrial organic matter. One is that, assuming a uniform initial isotopic composition (i.e., δ¹³C_{i, o}=δ¹³C_o) for all methane-generating precursors in coal, the isotopic variation of methane is fitted by adjusting ΔE_{a, i} (E_{a¹³C, i}−E_{a¹²C, i}) for each hypothetical reaction. The other is that, assuming a constant kinetic isotope effect during the whole gas formation, that is all ΔE_{a, i} values are identical, the modeling of methane isotopic composition is achieved by changing the ¹³CH₄ generation potential of each reaction (f_{i, ¹³C}), namely, by adjusting the initial δ¹³C value (δ¹³C_{i, o}) for each methane-generating precursor. Results of the kinetic calculation shows that the two simulating methods can yield a similar result at a geological heating rate of 2 °C/My, which further demonstrates that those natural gases with methane δ¹³C value being approximately −36‰ are possibly sourced from the upper Triassic coal measure strata in the Northwestern Sichuan Basin.     

Estimating coefficients of volume compressibility from compression of strata and piezometric changes in a multiaquifer system in west Taiwan

This paper estimates the coefficients of volume compressibility from variation in compressible layer thickness and changes in piezometric heads by using detail ground surface surveys and a multilayer monitoring well at a selected site (Shigang) within the Choshui River alluvial fan in west Taiwan. The paper integrates various types of in situ monitoring tools, including leveling surveys, continuous global position system (GPS) stations, multilevel layer compression and groundwater pressure head-monitoring wells, to investigate the situation and progress of the subsidence problem in the region. The results from the cross-analyses of the measured data show that surface settlement caused by the compression of strata is between the depths of 60 and 210 m where the clayey stratum within 120-180 m was most pronounced and contributes up to 53% of the total compression. The results indicate that the clayey stratum is under normal consolidation. The results also reflect the fact that 20% of settlement contribution comes from the sandy stratum within 90-120 m; the elasto-plastic behavior of this sandy stratum is clear. The coefficients of volume compressibility of the clayey and sandy stratum analysed from the stratum's compression records; they were 6.38×10⁻⁸ and 5.71×10⁻⁹ m²/N, respectively. Ultimately, this parameter estimation would permit to control and predict land subsidence based on change in pressure head which are related to groundwater extraction.     

On the long-term seismic hazard analysis in the Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone, China

The Zhangjiakou–Penglai seismotectonic zone (ZPSZ) lies in the northern part of North China and extends along the Zhangjiakou–Beijing–Tianjin–Bohai Bay–Penglai–Yellow Sea. It is about 900 km long and some 250 km wide in a northwest direction. The great Sanhe-Pinggu (M_S=8.0) earthquake occurred on September 1679 and the Tangshan (M_S=7.8) earthquake on July 1976 caused serious economic and life losses. According to some differences in crust structure and regional tectonic stress field, the ZPSZ is divided into western and eastern segment by the 117°E line for study on long-term seismic hazard analysis. An analysis of Gutenberg–Richter's empirical relation of earthquake-frequency and time process of historic and recent earthquakes along the eastern and western segments shows that the earthquake activity obeys a Poisson process, and these calculations indicate that the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=6.0–6.9 is 0.77–0.83 in the eastern segment and the earthquake occurrence probability of M_S=7.0–7.9 is 0.78–0.80 in the western segment of the ZPSZ during a period from 2005 to 2015.     

Quasi-simultaneous VLBI and RATAN-600 observations of active galactic nuclei

VLBI observations of several quasars and BL Lacertae objects were carried out at 1.66 GHz in November–December 1999 using six antennas (Medvezh'i Ozera, Svetloe, Pushchino, Noto, HartRAO, and Shanghai). Maps of six sources (0420+022, 0420-014, 1308+326, 1345+125, 1803+784, and DA 193) obtained with milliarcsecond resolution are presented and discussed, together with their broad-band (1–22 GHz) spectra obtained on the RATAN-600 radio telescope at epochs close to those of the VLBI observations. Comparison of the VLBI maps with maps of these sources obtained on standard VLBI networks and with the RATAN-600 quasisimultaneous total-flux measurements indicates the reliability of the results obtained on this Low Frequency VLBI Network and the good efficiency of this network.