推进“两个体系”建设 提升气象灾害防御能力

在贯彻落实中国气象局、自治区人民政府关于＂两个体系＂要求的前提下,通过对苍梧县在贯彻落实中国气象局、自治区人民政府关于＂两个体系＂要求精神,建立健全＂两个体系＂工作的思路和做法进行分析,得出完善预防为主的气象灾害防御机制,强化农业气象服务体系建设是促进气象科技的发展,提升气象灾害防御能力的重要工作。     

单体分子放射性碳同位素分析在海洋科学及环境科学研究中的应用

单体分子放射性碳同位素分析(CSRA)是近十几年来发展起来的一项新兴的分析手段,将所需的单体分子(生物标志物)从复杂的环境样品基质中分离并富集,再进行加速质谱仪(AMS)的放射性碳(14C)测定。这种分子水平的放射性碳同位素测定技术能够揭示出总有机质同位素组成的异质性,为解释有机碳的来源、迁移和转化等提供了新型的手段。在海洋科学研究中,单体分子放射性碳同位素分析已应用于计算碳在全球各储库的逗留时间并揭示和定量估算化石源有机碳的输入、指示沉积物的搬运过程、示踪微生物的代谢途径、改进沉积物年代学等;在环境科学研究中,单体分子放射性碳同位素分析可用于有毒物质(如多环芳烃)的源解析,示踪有机污染环境中微生物的代谢途径等。伴随着单体分子分离技术的改进及AMS灵敏度的提高,CSRA技术的应用会更加广泛。     

Design of a hydraulic power take-off system for the wave energy device with an inverse pendulum

This paper describes a dual-stroke acting hydraulic power take-off （PTO） system employed in the wave energy converter （WEC） with an inverse pendulum. The hydraulic PTO converts slow irregular reciprocating wave motions to relatively smooth, fast rotation of an electrical generator. The design of the hydraulic PTO system and its control are critical to maximize the generated power. A time domain simulation study and the laboratory experiment of the full-scale beach test are presented. The results of the simulation and laboratory experiments including their comparison at full-scale are also presented, which have validated the rationality of the design and the reliability of some key components of the prototype of the WEC with an inverse pendulum with the dual-stroke acting hydraulic PTO system.     

Numerical analysis and centrifuge modeling of shallow foundations

The influence of non-coaxial constitutive model on predictions of dense sand behavior is investigated in this paper. The non-coaxial model with strain softening plasticity is applied into finite-element program ABAQUS, which is first used to predict the stress-strain behavior and the non-coaxial characteristic between the orientations of the principal stress and principal plastic strain rate in simple shear tests. The model is also used to predict load settlement responses and bearing capacity factors of shallow foundations. A series of centrifuge tests for shallow foundations on saturated dense sand are performed under drained conditions and the test results are compared with the corresponding numerical results. Various footing dimensions, depths of embedment, and footing shapes are considered in these tests. In view of the load settlement relationships, the stiffness of the load-displacement curves is significantly affected by the non-coaxial model compared with those predicted by the coaxial model, and a lower value of non-coaxial modulus gives a softer response. Considering the soil behavior at failure, the coaxial model predictions of bearing capacity factors are more advanced than those of centrifuge test results and the non-coaxial model results;besides, the non-coaxial model gives better predictions. The non-coaxial model predictions are closer to those of the centrifuge results when a proper non-coaxial plastic modulus is chosen.     

Numerical simulation and experimental research on hydrodynamic performance of propeller with varying shaft depths

In order to study hydrodynamic performance of a propeller in the free surface, the numerical simulation and open-water experiments are carried out with varying shaft depths of propeller. The influences of shaft depths of a propeller on thrust and torque coefficient in calm water are mainly studied. Meanwhile, this paper also studies the propeller air-ingestion under special working conditions by experiment and theoretical calculation method, and compares the calculation results and experimental results. The results prove that the theoretical calculation model used in this paper can imitate the propeller air-ingestion successfully. The successful phenomenon simulation provides an essential theoretical basis to understand the physical essence of the propeller air-ingestion.     

基于城市内涝仿真模型的天津风暴潮灾害评估

基于城市内涝仿真模型,根据天津沿海地区的地形、地貌特征以及排水系统等对城市内涝仿真模型进行改进,在沿海边界和河口设置时变水位,使得模型拓展到既能模拟暴雨产生的内涝,也能模拟由于风暴潮侵袭造成的淹没情景。该模型对天津沿海地区历史上典型风暴潮个例以及10年、20年、50年、100年一遇重现期风暴潮产生的积水范围和积水深度进行了模拟,并对2012年8月3日台风达维 (1210) 造成的天津沿海风暴潮进行了业务试应用。将历史风暴潮个例模拟结果以及2012年8月3日的评估结果与实际灾情进行对比,结果显示模型具有较好的模拟能力,可应用于风暴潮灾害的评估和预估业务中,为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。     

Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study

On the basis of observations and results from the combination of a statistical formation model and a trajectory model, the inter-decadal shift of prevailing TC tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) are examined. The contributions of the changes in large-scale steering flows and tropical cyclone (TC) formation locations to the observed inter-decadal shift are investigated and their relative importance is determined. This study focuses on two periods, 1965–1986 (ID1) and 1987–2010 (ID2), which are determined based on the abrupt change of the annual category 4 and 5 TC frequency derived from the Bayesian change-point detection analysis. It is found that the models can well simulate the primary features of prevailing TC tracks on the inter-decadal timescale. From ID1 to ID2, a significant decrease in the frequency of TC occurrences is observed over the central South China Sea and well simulated by the models. Areas with a remarkable increase in the TC frequency, which extends from the Philippine Sea to the eastern coast of China and in the west of the WNP basin, are also reasonably simulated. Above changes in the prevailing TC tracks are attributed to (1) intensified cyclonic circulation centered over the western part of China and (2) more westward-southward expansion and intensification of the subtropical high over the WNP. Further analysis reveals that the inter-decadal shift in prevailing TC tracks is mainly resulted from the combined effects of changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations. Although both contribute to the inter-decadal shift in the prevailing TC tracks, changes in large-scale steering flows play a more important role compared to changes in TC formation locations.     

Responses of vegetation distribution to climate change in China

Climate plays a crucial role in controlling vegetation distribution and climate change may therefore cause extended changes. A coupled biogeography and biogeochemistry model called BIOME4 was modified by redefining the bioclimatic limits of key plant function types on the basis of the regional vegetation–climate relationships in China. Compared to existing natural vegetation distribution, BIOME4 is proven more reliable in simulating the overall vegetation distribution in China. Possible changes in vegetation distribution were simulated under climate change scenarios by using the improved model. Simulation results suggest that regional climate change would result in dramatic changes in vegetation distribution. Climate change may increase the areas covered by tropical forests, warm-temperate forests, savannahs/dry woodlands and grasslands/dry shrublands, but decrease the areas occupied by temperate forests, boreal forests, deserts, dry tundra and tundra across China. Most vegetation in east China, specifically the boreal forests and the tropical forests, may shift their boundaries northwards. The tundra and dry tundra on the Tibetan Plateau may be progressively confined to higher elevation.     

Impact of improved assimilation of temperature and salinity for coupled model seasonal forecasts

We assess the impact of improved ocean initial conditions for predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled seasonal prediction model for the period 1982–2006. The new ocean initial conditions are provided by an ensemble-based analysis system that assimilates subsurface temperatures and salinity and which is a clear improvement over the previous optimal interpolation system which used static error covariances and was univariate (temperature only). Hindcasts using the new ocean initial conditions have better skill at predicting sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with ENSO than do the hindcasts initialized with the old ocean analyses. The improvement derives from better prediction of subsurface temperatures and the largest improvements come during ENSO–IOD neutral years. We show that improved prediction of the Niño3.4 SST index derives from improved initial depiction of the thermocline and halocline in the equatorial Pacific but as lead time increases the improved depiction of the initial salinity field in the western Pacific become more important. Improved ocean initial conditions do not translate into improved skill for predicting the IOD but we do see an improvement in the prediction of subsurface temperatures in the Indian Ocean (IO). This result reflects that the coupling between subsurface and surface temperature variations is weaker in the IO than in the Pacific, but coupled model errors may also be limiting predictive skill in the IO.     

Drought variability at the northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region over the past millennia

The northern fringe of the Asian summer monsoon region (NASM) in China refers to the most northwestern extent of the Asian summer monsoon. Understanding the characteristics and underlying mechanisms of drought variability at long and short time-scales in the NASM region is of great importance, because present and future water shortages are of great concern. Here, we used newly developed and existing tree-ring, historical documentary and instrumental data available for the region to identify spatial and temporal patterns, and possible mechanisms of drought variability, over the past two millennia. We found that drought variations were roughly consistent in the western (the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor) and eastern (the Great Bend of the Yellow River, referred to as GBYR) parts of the NASM on decadal to centennial timescales. We also identified the spatial extent of typical multi-decadal GBYR drought events based on historical dryness/wetness data and the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas. It was found that the two periods of drought, in AD 1625–1644 and 1975–1999, exhibited similar patterns: specifically, a wet west and a dry east in the NASM. Spatial characteristics of wetness and dryness were also broadly similar over these two periods, such that when drought occurred in the Karakoram Mountains, western Tianshan Mountains, the Pamirs, Mongolia, most of East Asia, the eastern Himalayas and Southeast Asia, a wet climate dominated in most parts of the Indian subcontinent. We suggest that the warm temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific might have been mainly responsible for the recent 1975–1999 drought. Possible causes of the drought of 1625–1644 were the combined effects of the weakened Asian summer monsoon and an associated southward shift of the Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone. These changes occurred due to a combination of Tibetan Plateau cooling together with more general Northern Hemisphere cooling, rather than being solely due to changes in the sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific. Our results provide a benchmark for comparing and validating paleo-simulations from general circulation model of the variability of the Asian summer monsoon at decadal to centennial timescales.