1961—2016年江西不同量级暴雨的时空分布特征

利用江西省83个站点逐日降水资料,采用滑动平均、小波分析和Mann Kendall检验等方法,分析了1961—2016年江西春季(3—5月)、汛期(5—7月)、秋季(9—11月)不同量级暴雨的时空分布特征。结果表明：不同量级的暴雨在不同季节的变化特征存在明显的差异,降水主要集中在汛期。暴雨量在春季和秋季变化趋势平稳,而汛期在1990年之前呈减少趋势,之后呈增加趋势;其空间分布均呈“南少北多、东多西少”特征;存在准30 a和准10 a两个变化周期。大暴雨量在春季和汛期呈“先下降、后上升”的趋势,空间分布较为平均。特大暴雨发生的概率很小,主要集中在汛期,其降水量变化趋势呈“先下降、后上升”特征,空间分布集中在赣北中部和赣中东部。     

大地形上边界层流场的动力学研究

本文应用边界层气象学中Estoque数值模式关于湍流交换系数及分层的处理方法,求得了大地形存在时定常边界展方程的零、一级解析解,并用来得到大地形存在时边界层的散度场、垂直速度场,改进了前人的结果。     

日降水量空间插值方法研究

采用反距离权重法和普通克里格方法对26°~34°N, 103°~115°E范围内2004年逐日降水量进行空间插值试验分析, 分辨率为1 km×1 km。采用交叉检验方法和准确率方法对两种方法插值的总体效果及不同等级的降水插值效果进行综合对比。结果表明:两种方法插值效果近似, 插值结果与实测值相关系数分别为0.83和0.82。但对日雨量较大的情况, 两种方法插值效果均有所降低, 相关系数为0.66和0.67。两种方法的实测值与插值结果的相关系数在不同季节非常接近, 并且均以春季最大, 其次为冬、秋季, 夏季相关系数最小; 通过采用平均误差、平均绝对误差和均方根3个指标衡量及不同等级雨量的插值准确率统计比较, 普通克里格方法插值效果略好于反距离权重法。     

人工触发闪电电流及磁场变化特征对比

对2006年山东人工触发闪电实验中获取的一次传统触发闪电的电流及60 m处的磁感应强度变化波形对比分析的结果表明,Rogowski线圈和磁场测量系统记录到的波形很类似.这次闪电共包含两次回击,回击的时间间隔约为34 ms.两次回击的电流幅值很大,分别为41.6 kA和29.6 kA,在60 m处产生的磁感应强度变化分别为133μT和97μT,通过磁感应强度反演得到两次回击的电流分别为39.8 kA和29.1 kA,与Rogowski线圈的实测结果基本一致.另外,回击之前放电过程中仅出现了两个脉冲,利用所测磁感应强度反演得到两个脉冲对应的电流分别为2.11 kA和2.7 kA,与Rogowski线圈的实测结果2.1 kA和2.8 kA基本一致.     

宁夏地表湿润状况演变规律研究

利用1961-2004a宁夏23站月降水和平均气温资料,通过计算地表湿润指数,分析了宁夏区域平均及不同区域地表湿润指数的年代际变化特征及季节性差异.最后,给出了地表湿润指数年及各季节变化趋势的地理分布.结果表明:近40a来宁夏年地表湿润指数总趋势是下降的,即地表在变干;地表湿润指数的变化具有明显的阶段性特征,即1970s末期以前的冷湿期,1970s末至1980s中期的冷干期,1980s中期以来的暖干期;宁夏的干化趋势主要发生在秋季;宁夏年、秋季地表显著变干的中心区域主要集中在中部干旱带及南部山区的北部;冬季南部山区存在显著变湿趋势,春、夏季各地均无显著干、湿变化趋势.     

省级气象预报业务系统软件工程开发原则与技术

针对新时期技术装备不断更新、探测手段日益丰富、信息量急剧增长的技术形势,根据气象预报业务对软件系统工程的具体需求,及目前省级气象预报业务软件系统开发人员的具体状况,从可靠性、开放性、可移植性及工作效率等多方面入手,讨论了气象预报业务软件系统工程开发的原则,并对具体技术措施进行了分析。     

Properties and stability of a meso-scale line-form disturbance

By using the 3D dynamic equations for small- and meso-scale disturbances, an investigation is performed on the heterotropic instability (including symmetric instability and traversal-type instability) of a zonal line-like disturbance moving at any angle with respect to basic flow, arriving at the following results: (1) with linear shear available, the heterotropic instability of the disturbance will occur only when flow shearing happens in the direction of the line-like disturbance movement or in the direction perpendicular to the disturbance movement, with the heterotropic instability showing the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave; (2) in the presence of second-order non-linear shear, the disturbance of the heterotropic instability includes internal inertial gravity and vortex Rossby waves. For the zonal line-form disturbance under study, the vortex Rossby wave has its source in the second-order shear of meridional basic wind speed in the flow and propagates unidirectionally with respect to the meridional basic flow. As a mesoscale heterotropic instable disturbance, the vortex Rossby wave has its origin from the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance and is independent of the condition in the direction parallel to the flow; (3) for general zonal line-like disturbances, if the second-order shear happens in the meridional wind speed, i.e., the second shear of the flow in the direction perpendicular to the line-form disturbance, then the heterotropic instability of the disturbance is likely to be the instability of a mixed Rossby–internal inertial gravity wave; (4) the symmetric instability is actually the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave. The second-order shear in the flow represents an instable factor for a symmetric-type disturbance; (5) the instability of a traversal-type disturbance is the instability of the internal inertial gravity wave when the basic flow is constant or only linearly sheared. With a second or nonlinear vertical shear of the basic flow taken into account, the instability of a traversal-type disturbance may be the instability of a mixed vortex Rossby – gravity wave.     

Monitoring global land surface drought based on a hybrid evapotranspiration model

The latent heat of evapotranspiration (ET) plays an important role in the assessment of drought severity as one sensitive indicator of land drought status. A simple and accurate method of estimating global ET for the monitoring of global land surface droughts from remote sensing data is essential. The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid ET model by introducing empirical coefficients based on a simple linear two-source land ET model, and to then use this model to calculate the Evaporative Drought Index (EDI) based on the actual estimated ET and the potential ET in order to characterize global surface drought conditions. This is done using the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) products, AVHRR-NDVI products from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) group, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis-2 (NCEP-2) datasets. We randomly divided 22 flux towers into two groups and performed a series of cross-validations using ground measurements collected from the corresponding flux towers. The validation results from the second group of flux towers using the data from the first group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −6.72 W/m² to 12.95 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −1.73 W/m². Similarly, the validation results of the first group of flux towers using data from second group for calibration show that the daily bias varies from −12.91 W/m² to 10.26 W/m² and the average monthly bias is −3.59 W/m². To evaluate the reliability of the hybrid ET model on a global scale, we compared the estimated ET from the GEWEX, AVHRR-GIMMS-NDVI, and NECP-2 datasets with the latent heat flux from the Global Soil Wetness Project-2 (GSWP-2) datasets. We found both of them to be in good agreement, which further supports the validity of our model's global ET estimation. Significantly, the patterns of monthly EDI anomalies have a good spatial and temporal correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) anomalies from January 1984 to December 2002, which indicates that the method can be used to accurately monitor long-term global land surface drought.     

广州新白云国际机场地基处理工程研究——高压注砂浆与袖阀管注浆相结合方法

广州新白云国际机场地基中广泛发育土洞、溶洞等不良工程地质现象，地基条件极其复杂。为保证构筑物的安全，在土、溶洞处理工程中采用了高压注砂浆与袖阀管注浆相结合的施工方法，通过对施工方法与技术要求的总结，归纳了质量控制要点，并概述了施工中容易出现的问题并提出处理措施。采用高压注砂浆与袖阀管注浆相结合的工艺，即加快了工程进度，降低了工即程造价，又达到预想的效果。     

Migration Fractionation of Neutral Nitrogen Compounds of Crude Oils from Tabei Oilfield in the Tarim Basin, China

The absolute amounts and relative distributions of neutral nitrogen compounds in the Tabei oilfield (e. G. Blocks Ln1-Ln1 1) showed remarkable migration fractionation in the vertical direction. From Ordovician reservoirs (O) to oil legs TⅢ and T Ⅰ of Triassic reservoirs in blocks LN1-LN11, the concentrations of [a] [c] decreased from 1. 59μg/g, 0.49μg/g to 0.17 μg/g (oil). The ratios of various alkylcarbazole isomers, such as 1,8-dimethylcarbazole/nitrogenpartially shielded isomers and 1,8-dimethylcarbazole/nitrogen-exposed isomers, were adopted as the indicators of petroleum migration. The ratios increased from 0.13, 0.20 to 0.67 and from going from the south to the north of the Tabei oilfield, the absolute concentrations of neutral nitrogen compounds decreased drastically, and the nitrogen-shielded isomers were enriched relative to nitrogen-exposed isomers and nitrogen-partially shielded isomers. Crude oils in the Tabei oilfield migrated laterally from the Jilake structure to the Sangtamu fault uplift and Lunnan fault uplift, and crude oils in the same fault uplift migrated and remigrated vertically from Ordovician reservoirs, to oil legs TⅢ to TⅠ of Triassic reservoirs.