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941.
热带大气季节内振荡 (Madden-Julian oscillation,MJO) 是次季节-季节时间尺度气候变率的支配模态。它不仅对低纬度地区天气气候产生重要影响,还能够通过经向传播和激发大气遥相关波列对中高纬度地区产生影响,是延伸期尺度最重要的可预报性来源。因此,MJO预报是次季节-季节气候预测中极为重要的部分,近年来受到国际学术界广泛关注。该文回顾了MJO预报发展历史,概述了当前国际上主要科研业务机构的MJO预报发展现状。目前基于统计方法和气候模式的MJO预报研究取得了较大进展,特别是多个耦合气候模式和一种基于时空投影方法的统计模型均能够显著提升MJO预报技巧 (有效预报可达20 d以上)。该文还介绍了中国气象局国家气候中心在MJO预报技术发展和业务系统研制方面的新进展,当前基于第2代大气环流模式的MJO业务预报填补了国内空白,技巧为16~17 d,而耦合气候模式试验的技巧已达到约20 d。总体来看,利用耦合模式预报MJO是未来发展的主要方向,其中,面向MJO的模式初始化和集合预报新方法研究将是关注重点。 相似文献
942.
利用逐日气温和降水量数据、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及预报场资料,通过分析提取我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程及其预报因子,使用粒子群-神经网络方法建立非线性的统计集合预报模型 (PSONN-EPM),对我国南方区域持续性低温雨雪过程进行预报试验。结果表明:以过程的冷湿程度及影响范围为标准,将低温雨雪过程分为一般过程和严重过程,并建立不同的预报模型效果较好。通过10 d独立样本预报试验看,基于粒子群-神经网络方法建立的集合预报模型比基于逐步回归方法建立的预报模型的预报平均相对误差小,对严重过程预报能力高于对一般过程预报,且这种非线性统计集合建模方法在建模过程中不需要调整神经网络参数,在实际预报业务中值得尝试。 相似文献
943.
944.
Taking transfer orbits of a collinear libration point probe, a lunar probe and an interplanetary probe as examples, some applications of stable and unstable invariant manifolds of the restricted three-body problem are discussed. Research shows that transfer energy is not necessarily conserved when invariant manifolds are used. For the cases in which the transfer energy is conserved, the cost is a much longer transfer time. 相似文献
945.
Xian-Feng Zhao 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,332(1):139-144
The effect of the Σ-meson well depth on the gravitational redshift is examined within the framework of relativistic mean field
theory for the baryon octet system. It is found that, for a stable neutron star, the gravitational redshift increases with
the central energy density increase or with the mass increase but decreases as the radius increases. Considering a change
of US(N)U_{\Sigma}^{(N)} from −30 MeV to 30 MeV, for a stable neutron star the gravitational redshift near to the maximum mass increases. In addition,
it is also found that the growth of the US(N)U_{\Sigma}^{(N)} makes the gravitational redshift as a function of M
max /R increase, the higher the US(N)U_{\Sigma}^{(N)} the less the change in the gravitational redshift. 相似文献
946.
947.
Y.‐C. Wei C.‐M. Zhang Y.‐H. Zhao Q.‐H. Peng X.‐J. Wu J. Wang Y.‐Y. Pan H.‐X. Yin Y. Yan T.‐S. Yan H.‐J. Tian A. Esamdin A.L. Luo Y. Cai A. Taani 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2010,331(8):817-831
Under the two initial 1‐D one parameter velocity distribution forms (one is normal, the other is exponential), the z direction scale height evolution of normal neutron stars in the Galaxy is studied by numerical simulation. We do statistics for the cases at different time segments, also do statistics for the cumulative cases made of each time segment. The results show in the cumulative cases the evolution curves of the scale heights are smoother than in the each time segment, i.e., the cumulation improve the signal‐to‐noise ratio. Certainly the evolution cases are different at different Galactic disk locations, which also have very large difference from the average cases in the whole disk. In the initial stages of z evolution of normal neutron stars, after the beginning transient states, the cumulative scale heights increase linearly with time, and the cumulative scale height increasing rates have linear relationship with the initial velocity distribution parameters, which have larger fluctuation in the vicinity of the Sun than in the whole disk. We utilize the linear relationship of the cumulative scale height increasing rates vs. the initial velocity distribution parameters in the vicinity of the Sun to make comparison with the observation near the Sun. The results show if there is no magnetic decay, then the deserved initial velocity parameters are obvious lower than the present well known results from some authors; whereas if introducing magnetic decay, for the 1‐D normal case we can make consistence among concerning results using magnetic decay time values which are supported by some authors, while for the 1‐D exponential case the results show the lackness of young pulsar samples in the larger z in the vicinity of the Sun (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) 相似文献
948.
949.
Using 141 CME-interplanetary shock (CME-IPS) events and foF2 from eight ionosonde stations from January 2000 to September 2005, from the statistical results we find that there is a “same side?–?opposite side effect” in ionospheric negative storms, i.e., a large portion of ionospheric negative disturbances are induced by the same-side events (referring to the CMEs whose source located on the same side of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) as the Earth), while only a small portion is associated with the opposite-side events (the CMEs source located on the opposite side of the HCS as the Earth); the ratio is 128 vs. 46, and it reaches 41 vs. 14 for the intense ionospheric negative storms. In addition, the ionospheric negative storms associated with the same-side events are often more intense. A comparison of the same-side event (4 April 2000) and the opposite-side event (2 April 2001) shows that the intensity of the ionospheric negative storm caused by the same-side event is higher than that by the opposite-side event, although their initial conditions are quite similar. Our preliminary results show that the HCS has an “impeding” effect to CME-IPS, which results in a shortage of energy injection in the auroral zone and restraining the development of ionospheric negative perturbations. 相似文献
950.
Ji Wu Guang-Wu Zhu Hua Zhao Chi Wang Lei Li Yue-Qiang Sun Wei Guo Cheng-Li Huang 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2010
Compared with other planets, Mars is a planet most similar with the earth and most possible to find the extraterrestrial life on it, and therefore especially concerned about by human beings. In recent years, some countries have launched Mars probes and announced their manned Mars exploration programs. China has become the fifth country in the world to launch independently artificial satellites, and the third country able to carry out an independent manned space program. However, China is just at the beginning of deep space explorations. In 2007, China and Russia signed an agreement on a joint Mars exploration program by sending a Chinese micro-satellite Yinghuo-1 (YH-1) to the Mars orbit. Once YH-1 enters its orbit, it will carry out its own exploration, as well as the joint exploration with the Russian Phobos-Grunt probe. This paper summarizes the scientific background and objectives of YH-1 and describes briefly its payloads for realizing these scientific objectives. In addition, the main exploration tasks of YH-1 and a preliminary prospect on its exploration results are also given. 相似文献