四川盆地东部垫江盐盆早三叠世嘉陵江组四段杂卤石成因及对成钾的指示

四川盆地三叠纪是主要的成钾期,目前发现的主要含钾矿物为杂卤石,有关早三叠世嘉陵江组四段石盐岩中杂卤石成因一直存在争议.采用薄片鉴定、扫描电镜、稀土元素和锶同位素等手段,分析了四川盆地东部垫江盐盆长寿地区嘉陵江组四段石盐岩中杂卤石矿物形态特征,初步探讨了该杂卤石成因及对寻找海相钾盐的指示意义.扫描电镜下与石盐岩共生的杂卤...     

EMD方法在广西夏季降水量预测中的应用

对广西夏季降水量进行EMD分解后,利用均生函数相关法,比较不同IMF分量组合建模的预测,不同组合试验预测显示,用前二个IMF分量组合建模预测是最佳的组合方案。经对2001—2010年共10年广西夏季降水量实际预测检验表明,趋势预测准确率达70%以上,对夏季降水量预测较有参考价值。为基层台站的气候预测及服务提供一个客观预测方法。     

推进“两个体系”建设 提升气象灾害防御能力

在贯彻落实中国气象局、自治区人民政府关于＂两个体系＂要求的前提下,通过对苍梧县在贯彻落实中国气象局、自治区人民政府关于＂两个体系＂要求精神,建立健全＂两个体系＂工作的思路和做法进行分析,得出完善预防为主的气象灾害防御机制,强化农业气象服务体系建设是促进气象科技的发展,提升气象灾害防御能力的重要工作。     

单体分子放射性碳同位素分析在海洋科学及环境科学研究中的应用

单体分子放射性碳同位素分析(CSRA)是近十几年来发展起来的一项新兴的分析手段,将所需的单体分子(生物标志物)从复杂的环境样品基质中分离并富集,再进行加速质谱仪(AMS)的放射性碳(14C)测定。这种分子水平的放射性碳同位素测定技术能够揭示出总有机质同位素组成的异质性,为解释有机碳的来源、迁移和转化等提供了新型的手段。在海洋科学研究中,单体分子放射性碳同位素分析已应用于计算碳在全球各储库的逗留时间并揭示和定量估算化石源有机碳的输入、指示沉积物的搬运过程、示踪微生物的代谢途径、改进沉积物年代学等;在环境科学研究中,单体分子放射性碳同位素分析可用于有毒物质(如多环芳烃)的源解析,示踪有机污染环境中微生物的代谢途径等。伴随着单体分子分离技术的改进及AMS灵敏度的提高,CSRA技术的应用会更加广泛。     

Design of a hydraulic power take-off system for the wave energy device with an inverse pendulum

This paper describes a dual-stroke acting hydraulic power take-off （PTO） system employed in the wave energy converter （WEC） with an inverse pendulum. The hydraulic PTO converts slow irregular reciprocating wave motions to relatively smooth, fast rotation of an electrical generator. The design of the hydraulic PTO system and its control are critical to maximize the generated power. A time domain simulation study and the laboratory experiment of the full-scale beach test are presented. The results of the simulation and laboratory experiments including their comparison at full-scale are also presented, which have validated the rationality of the design and the reliability of some key components of the prototype of the WEC with an inverse pendulum with the dual-stroke acting hydraulic PTO system.     

Numerical analysis and centrifuge modeling of shallow foundations

The influence of non-coaxial constitutive model on predictions of dense sand behavior is investigated in this paper. The non-coaxial model with strain softening plasticity is applied into finite-element program ABAQUS, which is first used to predict the stress-strain behavior and the non-coaxial characteristic between the orientations of the principal stress and principal plastic strain rate in simple shear tests. The model is also used to predict load settlement responses and bearing capacity factors of shallow foundations. A series of centrifuge tests for shallow foundations on saturated dense sand are performed under drained conditions and the test results are compared with the corresponding numerical results. Various footing dimensions, depths of embedment, and footing shapes are considered in these tests. In view of the load settlement relationships, the stiffness of the load-displacement curves is significantly affected by the non-coaxial model compared with those predicted by the coaxial model, and a lower value of non-coaxial modulus gives a softer response. Considering the soil behavior at failure, the coaxial model predictions of bearing capacity factors are more advanced than those of centrifuge test results and the non-coaxial model results;besides, the non-coaxial model gives better predictions. The non-coaxial model predictions are closer to those of the centrifuge results when a proper non-coaxial plastic modulus is chosen.     

Numerical simulation and experimental research on hydrodynamic performance of propeller with varying shaft depths

In order to study hydrodynamic performance of a propeller in the free surface, the numerical simulation and open-water experiments are carried out with varying shaft depths of propeller. The influences of shaft depths of a propeller on thrust and torque coefficient in calm water are mainly studied. Meanwhile, this paper also studies the propeller air-ingestion under special working conditions by experiment and theoretical calculation method, and compares the calculation results and experimental results. The results prove that the theoretical calculation model used in this paper can imitate the propeller air-ingestion successfully. The successful phenomenon simulation provides an essential theoretical basis to understand the physical essence of the propeller air-ingestion.     

基于城市内涝仿真模型的天津风暴潮灾害评估

基于城市内涝仿真模型,根据天津沿海地区的地形、地貌特征以及排水系统等对城市内涝仿真模型进行改进,在沿海边界和河口设置时变水位,使得模型拓展到既能模拟暴雨产生的内涝,也能模拟由于风暴潮侵袭造成的淹没情景。该模型对天津沿海地区历史上典型风暴潮个例以及10年、20年、50年、100年一遇重现期风暴潮产生的积水范围和积水深度进行了模拟,并对2012年8月3日台风达维 (1210) 造成的天津沿海风暴潮进行了业务试应用。将历史风暴潮个例模拟结果以及2012年8月3日的评估结果与实际灾情进行对比,结果显示模型具有较好的模拟能力,可应用于风暴潮灾害的评估和预估业务中,为相关部门和行业提供决策参考。     

改善MODIS BRDF产品热点效应的方法研究

核驱动的Ross Thick-LiSparse Reciprocal(RTLSR)双向反射函数(BRDF)模型已广泛地应用于MODIS等星载传感器的业务化产品处理中。但是,对于多年MODIS二向反射产品历史数据,如何基于RTMLSR模型发展一种简单有效快速的方法,进行热点效应的校正是一个迫切需要解决的问题。本文提出了一种简单有效的方法,不需要对观测数据重新反演,直接在现有MODIS二向反射产品的基础上进行热点校正,方便用户对历史MODIS二向反射产品的使用。该方法应用POLDER-3/BRDF数据库和部分经MODIS业务化算法筛选的反射率数据进行验证,并与RTLSR模型和RTMLSR模型的结果进行比较,结果表明:(1)该方法比现有的MODIS业务化RTLSR算法,对热点反射率有明显改善,拟合相对误差平均降低了10.12%;(2)该方法相对于RTMLSR模型在热点反射率拟合效果上差别不大,相对误差相差2.10%;(3)该方法对热点和冷点归一化的植被指数(NDHD)的估算效果有一定程度的改善,相对于RTLSR模型降低了约4.99%,与RTMLSR模型的相对误差相差1.32%,该方法对直接应用现有MODIS BRDF产品,基于热点方向反射率反演植被结构参数(如植被聚集指数)的精度提高有现实应用价值。     

Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study

On the basis of observations and results from the combination of a statistical formation model and a trajectory model, the inter-decadal shift of prevailing TC tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) are examined. The contributions of the changes in large-scale steering flows and tropical cyclone (TC) formation locations to the observed inter-decadal shift are investigated and their relative importance is determined. This study focuses on two periods, 1965–1986 (ID1) and 1987–2010 (ID2), which are determined based on the abrupt change of the annual category 4 and 5 TC frequency derived from the Bayesian change-point detection analysis. It is found that the models can well simulate the primary features of prevailing TC tracks on the inter-decadal timescale. From ID1 to ID2, a significant decrease in the frequency of TC occurrences is observed over the central South China Sea and well simulated by the models. Areas with a remarkable increase in the TC frequency, which extends from the Philippine Sea to the eastern coast of China and in the west of the WNP basin, are also reasonably simulated. Above changes in the prevailing TC tracks are attributed to (1) intensified cyclonic circulation centered over the western part of China and (2) more westward-southward expansion and intensification of the subtropical high over the WNP. Further analysis reveals that the inter-decadal shift in prevailing TC tracks is mainly resulted from the combined effects of changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations. Although both contribute to the inter-decadal shift in the prevailing TC tracks, changes in large-scale steering flows play a more important role compared to changes in TC formation locations.