上海沿岸海域灾害性大风特征研究与预报检验

选取2011-2017年上海沿岸海域5个浮标站点的风场和海浪数据,分析了大风过程的时间和空间特征;对海浪成长过程进行风向分类,运用滑动相关分析统计了8个风向的海浪滞后时间;计算了大风起风时间的预报提前和滞后量,进行了风速风向的误差和准确率检验。结果表明:越往东部海域,大风时数越多,长江口区东部风速较大;大风极值主要出现在8月份台风过程,出现时段都为傍晚到半夜,大浪极值浪向以东北到东南向为主;秋冬季大风时数多,5-6月大风时数最少;大风风向以西北到东北风为主;海浪成长过程风向分布是东南-西北走向,海浪对风的响应滞后时间平均为3~4 h;大风起风时间预报较实况略有滞后,风速预报的准确率总体在70%以上,预报值较实况值偏小,口外浮标偏小最为明显,偏强率都为0;风向预报准确率低,误差大。     

沙漠颗粒物对磷酸盐的吸附动力学研究

研究了乌兰布和沙漠和库布齐沙漠颗粒物在黄河水体中对磷酸盐(P)的吸附动力学及其影响因素和吸附/解吸平衡质量浓度(EPC0值)。结果表明：①不同沙漠颗粒物对P的吸附能力各不相同,但吸附速率均在前 8 h内较快,以后逐渐趋缓,在48 h时基本达到吸附平衡。磷初始浓度和颗粒物浓度均对颗粒物吸附P有一定影响;②颗粒物对P的吸附过程均符合准二级吸附动力学模型及Weber-Morris扩散方程,吸附过程主要由P在颗粒物内的扩散过程控制;③入河沙漠颗粒物在黄河水体中对P的吸附过程存在一个吸附/解吸平衡点,该点对应的不同颗粒物对P的EPC0值为0.010~0.042 mg·L-1,且其值均大于相应黄河水体中的P浓度,说明沙漠颗粒物入河后有向水体释磷的趋势。     

雷达影像地表形变干涉测量的机遇、挑战与展望

随着合成孔径雷达(SAR)卫星的不断发射,合成孔径雷达干涉测量技术(interferometric synthetic aperture radar,InSAR)得到前所未有的发展机遇,同时也面临诸多挑战。本文首先简要介绍了SAR卫星发展现状与InSAR技术的基本原理,并系统梳理了干涉图堆叠(InSAR stacking)、小基线集干涉测量(small baseline subset InSAR,SBAS-InSAR)、永久散射体干涉测量(persistent scatterer InSAR,PS-InSAR)、分布式散射体干涉测量(distributed scatterer InSAR,DS-InSAR)和分频干涉测量(split-bandwidth interferometry,SBI)等先进InSAR技术的优缺点。在此基础上,指出目前InSAR技术面临的主要挑战(相位失相干、大气延迟、相位解缠、几何畸变和多维变形测量)及相应的解决方案。进一步从地震、火山、滑坡、地面沉降、冰川运动、人工建构筑物位移变形及大气水汽含量估计等不同的应用场景分析了InSAR技术的应用现状和存在的缺陷。最后,展望目前InSAR的发展趋势,随着更高空间分辨率,更高时间分辨率,更轻小化SAR卫星的不断发展,InSAR技术将会被应用到越来越多的新场景,激励我国雷达影像干涉测量更快发展。     

GPS-RTK与测深技术在水下地形测量中的应用

简要介绍了利用GPS-RTK与测深技术测定水下地形的基本原理和水下地形测量的基本作业步骤,并通过工程实例说明无验潮和传统验潮两种模式下取得的水深测量数据均能满足相关规范要求。     

THE INFLUENCES OF SSTA OVER KUROSHIO AND ITS EXTENSION ON RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF TWO DIFFERENT EL NIO CASES

By using the gauged rainfall in 160 stations within mainland China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the impacts of anomalous SST in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China were investigated. The results show that a difference in the meridional circulation such as the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern(EAP)may be responsible for the difference in rainfall between 1998 and 2010. In comparison with 1998, the anomalous meridional circulation pattern in 2010 shifted northeastward, and then the western subtropical high, the mid-latitudinal trough and the northeastern Asia blocking high also shifted northeastward, causing intensified convergence of the cold and warm air masses at the southern region and thus more rainfall in the southwestern region and less in the northwestern region. In 1998, the anomalous cyclone, one component of the meridional pattern, located at the Songhuajiang-Nengjiang River basin, resulted in more rainfall in the majority of the area. The results of observation and the model show that the difference in SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension under the background of different El Ni觡o events is the key point:(1) The anomalous warmth moved westward from the mid-Pacific to the east of the Philippine Sea during the central event, which led the heat resources shifting to the northeast in 2010; subsequently, a shift occurred to the north of the anomalous ascent and decent, followed by a warm SSTA in the region of Kuroshio's extension in 2010 and Kuroshio in 1998.(2) The warm SSTA in the Kuroshio extension causing the Rossby wave activity flux strengthened in 2010, and then the westerly jet shifted northward and extended eastward. A warm SSTA in Kuroshio and cold SSTA in its extension in 1998 caused the westerly jet to shift southward and weaken. As a result,the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone shifted northward in 2010, and the blocking high also shifted northward.     

气溶胶光学厚度谱特征判断粒子大小方法初探

当气溶胶谱满足Junge分布时,Angstrom指数 (α) 可以准确地描述粒子大小,但真实大气气溶胶很少完全满足这一条件,仅用α判断粒子大小会有较大出入。基于北京、香河、兴隆、太湖4个Aeronet观测站21世纪以来各站历时都超过1年的气溶胶光学厚度资料,获得5511组lnτ与lnλ的二次拟合参数a2,a1,尝试找到一种结合α,a2,a1判断粒子大小的方法。结果表明：当气溶胶为粗粒子时 (Vfine/Vtotal＜0.2),α均小于0.75,仅用α就可以较好地判断粒子大小,但当气溶胶以细粒子为主时 (Vfine/Vtotal＞0.7),该方法会有较大出入,此时a2,a1可以有效地辅助α判断粒子大小,α＞0.75,a2＜-0.5或a2＜-0.5,a1＜-1.0是较好的判据。此外,分析发现国外研究提出的用a2-a1判断粒子大小的方法效果并不理想,尤其在1＜a2-a1＜2的情况下,粒子的组成有多种可能。     

Seismic intensity investigation of the 2001 M =6.0 Yajiang-Kangding earthquake and discussion on its background of seismogenic structures

An M=6.0 earthquake occurred on February 23, 2001 in the western Sichuan Province, China. The macro seismic epicenter situated in the high mountain-narrow valley region between Yajiang and Kangding counties. According to field investigation in the region, the intensity of epicentral area reached VIII and the areas with intensity VIII, VII and VI are 180 km², 1 472 km² and 3 998 km², respectively. The isoseismals are generally in elliptic shape with major axis trending near N-S direction. The earthquake destroyed many buildings and produced some phenomena of ground failure and mountainous disasters in the area with intensity VIII. This event may be resulted from long-term activities of the Litang fault and Yunongxi fault, two main faults in the western Sichuan. The movements between the main faults made the crust stress adjusted and concentrated, and finally the earthquake on a secondary fault in the block released a quite large energy.     

Modeling urban expansion by using variable weights logistic cellular automata: a case study of Nanjing,China

Simulation models based on cellular automata (CA) are widely used for understanding and simulating complex urban expansion process. Among these models, logistic CA (LCA) is commonly adopted. However, the performance of LCA models is often limited because the fixed coefficients obtained from binary logistic regression do not reflect the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of transition rules. Therefore, we propose a variable weights LCA (VW-LCA) model with dynamic transition rules. The regression coefficients in this VW-LCA model are based on VW by incorporating a genetic algorithm in a conventional LCA. The VW-LCA model and the conventional LCA model were both used to simulate urban expansion in Nanjing, China. The models were calibrated with data for the period 2000–2007 and validated for the period 2007–2013. The results showed that the VW-LCA model performed better than the LCA model in terms of both visual inspection and key indicators. For example, kappa, accuracy of urban land and figure of merit for the simulation results of 2013 increased by 3.26%, 2.96% and 4.44%, respectively. The VW-LCA model performs relatively better compared with other improved LCA models that are suggested in literature.     

The Fe/Mn ratio in MORB and OIB determined by ICP-MS

Variations in the abundance of iron in the mantle may have important consequences for mantle dynamics and geochemistry. The abundance of iron in lavas derived from mantle source regions varies during partial melting and subsequent fractionation, so that source heterogeneities are not easily resolved in iron abundances alone. However, manganese is a geochemically similar element, so that the planetary Fe/Mn ratio is approximately constant. Here, we report new Fe/Mn results for mid-oceanic ridge basalts (MORBs), oceanic island basalts (OIBs) and komatiites using a precise inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometric (ICP-MS) method to measure Fe/Mn to better than 0.5% (2σ). As a measure of reproducibility of Fe/Mn, five olivine and five orthopyroxene grains from a Kilbourne Hole peridotite xenolith yielded Fe/Mn 69.8 ± 0.4 and 44.3 ± 0.2, respectively. To avoid ubiquitous secondary Fe-Mn oxides, Fe/Mn ratios in Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian MORBs were determined by Laser Ablation ICP-MS. MORB Fe/Mn (53-56) corrected for crystal fractionation yielded a value of 54.0 ± 1.2 (1σ). Icelandic basalts and picrites (MgO 10-29%) had Fe/Mn ratios 56-61, with a single exception. Six relatively fresh komatiites from Belingwe (MgO 20-29%) yielded Fe/Mn values of 58.3 ± 0.2 (1σ). Basalts from Tahiti and Reunion exhibited high Fe/Mn (>65), like Hawaii. This implies that the mantle source regions of Tahiti and Reunion lavas may have been enriched in Fe relative to other mantle reservoirs (e.g., MORBs, Iceland, Belingwe). Combined with previous results for Hawaii, we now find that Fe/Mn > 65 is characteristic of at least two plumes from the Pacific Superswell. It is conceivable that this is evidence for excess Fe due to core-mantle interaction in these mantle plumes, although partial melting of secondary pyroxenites may cause similar variations in Fe/Mn. Heterogeneity of Fe/Mn in mantle-derived lavas is now clearly documented.     

火星陨石和火星表面泥岩中蚀变过程对比研究

火星次生含水蚀变矿物是火星地质历史时期水环境和气候演变历史的真实记录,一直以来都是火星探测、火星陨石研究的重点,是认识火星环境特征和气候演化的重要研究对象。文中对比研究了表土角砾岩NWA7034、火成堆晶岩MIL03346等两块最富蚀变矿物火星陨石,以及Gale撞击坑出露的Sheepbed泥岩3种岩石类型的蚀变程度及其蚀变矿物类型和组合,分析了层状硅酸盐、铁氧化物/氢氧化物、钙硫酸盐等蚀变矿物的成因及环境指示意义。发现这3类岩石的蚀变作用各不相同。火星陨石NWA7034的蚀变作用以氧化和加热作用为主,无蒸发盐类矿物。火星陨石MIL03346的蚀变程度最低,为后期水溶液进入缝隙而引发的,蚀变作用以橄榄石的伊利石化、裂隙和缝隙中填充次生矿物细脉为主。而火星Sheepbed泥岩经历了后期的等化学风化过程(isochemical weathering),次生过程包括成岩蚀变和成岩后蚀变两个阶段。其中,成岩过程中的蚀变以橄榄石蚀变为铁氧化物和蒙皂石矿物为主,成岩后以形成蒸发盐类矿物硫酸钙为主。以上3种岩石蚀变矿物组成差异反映了火星上不同地质背景中、不同气候条件下蚀变过程的复杂性。文中对火星含水矿物及部分典型矿物的形成条件和过程进行系统总结,这对于理解未来火星探测任务、识别含水矿物的形成、揭示火星水环境和地质历史具有重要指导意义。