应用系统分析与事故树模型的设备雷电灾害风险评估

分析目前国内雷电灾害风险评估发展现状,针对精细化雷击风险评估需求,以某大桥塔体电梯雷电灾害风险评估为例,在对雷击损坏途径进行系统分析的基础上,引入事故树(FTA)分析方法对电梯雷击损坏事件的致因关系进行了建模、分析与评价,得出电梯雷击损坏事件发生的年预计概率、导致雷击电梯损坏事件发生的关键以及最佳控制雷击电梯损坏事件发生的最有效因素。     

鲁中南一次暴雨过程的特征和成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6h的再分析资料、GPS可降雨资料和地闪定位资料,对2013年7月4—5日山东中南部出现的暴雨到大暴雨天气过程的不同阶段特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:本次暴雨过程是冷暖切变线所引发,暴雨的水汽源于南海;低空急流的强弱和水汽通量的大小呈正相关;暖切变线暴雨的雨强、影响范围和持续时间明显大于冷切变线暴雨;冷、暖切变线GPS可降雨量表现不同,前者短时间内增幅大,地面强降雨在峰值出现1h后发生,对地面降雨变化反映较敏感,后者强降雨出现前8h可降雨量快速上升,可降雨量峰值对应地面降雨大值,对地面降雨变化反映不敏感;冷切变线对流性更强,地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍,正地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的1/2,负地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍;降雨云团正、负地闪活跃程度呈反相位关系,正、负地闪的变化能很好地反映强降雨的变化;冷、暖切变线动力结构不同,前者物理量场从低层到高层向北倾斜,后者则为垂直分布;冷切变线上升运动区较暖切变线深厚。     

闽西北5月雨量特多年份环流特征及其成因分析

利用闽西北三明市的11个县、市1961—2014年5月降雨量资料、常规气象观测资料和NCEP 2.5×2.5°再分析资料等对闽西北历史上5月雨量特多年的降雨量时空分布特征和大气环流特征及其成因进行了分析,结果表明:5月区域性、全区性雨量特多年的环流异常特征是500hPa欧亚中高纬度自西向东环流呈"+-+"的波列分布,鄂霍次克海北侧高度正距平区的稳定少动,起到阻挡冷空气东移的作用,冷空气沿乌拉尔山西侧高度正距平中心前的偏北气流不断南下,使萨彦岭一带高度负距平中心加强,其底部不断分裂小槽东移影响闽西北。925hPa华南北部维持一条稳定切变线;对于2014年5月特例的环流形势分析结果可知,500hPa东亚大槽明显偏东,引导冷空气南下与强大副高西北侧西南暖湿气流交绥在闽西北上空。925hPa闽西北处于气旋式辐合区内。北支槽、南支槽均非常活跃,东移影响闽西北,是导致该地5月区域性降雨量特多的主要原因。     

气象预警信息一键式发布系统研究与应用

基于WebGIS、HTTP通信、数据库等技术,制定了一键式预警信息发布规范,有效整合了电子显示屏、预警大喇叭、手机等预警发布终端,开发了气象预警信息一键式发布平台,实现了地图综合显示、气象数据叠加、任意预警区域选取、一键式发布预警信息等功能,提高了预警信息发布的可视化水平,保证了多终端预警信息发布的高效性、一致性。该系统的一键式信息发布技术,为气象预警发布开拓了新思路,能够有效提升业务水平和预警发布能力。     

青藏高原晚始新世干旱化事件：改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素的记录

改则盆地位于青藏高原腹地,盆地内沉积物记录了高原古环境变化的重要信息。本文对改则盆地康托组碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素进行研究,结果显示改则盆地中-晚始新世的演化分为两个阶段:1中始新世湿润气候下开放湖盆阶段:虽然碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值在43层处向正值偏移,但整体~(18)O和~(13)C强烈亏损,并且该时期碳酸盐岩δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C变化相关系数为R~2=0.082。表明该阶段的研究区虽然经历过短期蒸发作用增强或补给水减少,但整体是气候湿润条件下补给水丰富的开放型湖盆。2晚始新世干旱气候下封闭湖盆阶段:经过中新世晚期(63层)气候和湖泊水文状态的过渡,晚始新世~(18)O和~(13)C同位素富集,δ~(18)O值和δ~(13)C值变化相关系数为R~2=0.7762。表明该阶段气候干旱,蒸发作用强烈,湖盆萎缩成为封闭湖盆。综合前人研究,认为青藏高原腹地及北缘、东北缘在晚始新世存在明显的区域性干旱化事件。对比分析青藏高原隆升、全球气候记录、全球海水Sr和大气CO_2记录,认为青藏高原腹地和北部的干旱化事件主要受青藏高原隆升的影响。     

贵州西北部基性侵入岩锆石U-Pb年代学、岩石地球化学特征 及其与铅锌成矿关系初探

贵州西北部发育多处基性侵入岩,总体规模较小(约0.25 Km2),多沿深大断裂侵位,出露于铅锌矿点外围,本文对猫猫厂、凉山两处矿点附近的儿马冲和白岩庆两地小型基性侵入岩进行了重点研究。侵入岩主要岩性为细粒辉长岩,造岩矿物主要为拉长石、普通辉石。SiO2范围为49.60-51.09 wt%,MgO从3.88-4.27 wt %,TiO2为3.69-3.85 wt %。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年结果为268.3±7.4 Ma,显示岩浆侵位于二叠纪。基性侵入岩的微量元素蛛网图呈OIB型特征,富集大离子亲石元素（LILE）、轻稀土元素（LREE）,亏损重稀土元素（HFEE）,相对亏损高场强元素（Nb,Ta）,有Sr、Y亏损,Pb富集。(87Sr/86Sr)i范围0.706749～0.707069,(143Nd/144Nd)i范围0.512313～0.512363,εNd(t)范围0.2～1.2;源区熔融深度处于石榴石橄榄岩相深度,可能经历了1-3 %的部分熔融,处于亏损石榴石二辉橄榄岩相向原始石榴石二辉橄榄岩相的过渡区。成岩过程中发生了单斜辉石、斜长石等矿物分离结晶,受到了有限的地壳混染作用,未经历明显的AFC过程。地壳物质在地幔源区中的加入可能是造成地幔富集的主要原因。侵入岩与成矿作用之间的关系,主要通过两方面所表现。一方面是二者间构造活动上的耦合性。另一方面是基性岩在成矿过程中可能发挥了重要的化学屏障层作用。     

准噶尔盆地油气源、油气分布与油气系统

准噶尔盆地是中国西部典型的多旋回叠合盆地,发育有石炭系、二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系、白垩系和古近系6套烃源岩,同时存在6大类原油和3大类天然气,广泛分布于盆地不同地区。西北缘原油总体相似,碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰),胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、三环萜烷、伽马蜡烷丰富,甾烷以C_(28)、C_(29)为主,基本没有重排甾烷,为第二类原油,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩。腹部绝大多数原油与西北缘原油相似,但胡萝卜烷、类异戊二烯烷烃、伽马蜡烷等有差异,来源于不同凹陷的二叠系湖相烃源岩;少量原油碳同位素组成重(δ~(13)C-28‰~-26‰),Pr/Ph大于2.5,三环萜烷以C_(19)、C_(20)为主,藿烷丰富而伽马蜡烷极低,以C_(29)规则甾烷及重排甾烷为主,为第四类原油,来源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩。东部存在5种类型原油,第一类原油碳同位素组成特别重(δ~(13)C-26‰),来源于石炭系烃源岩;第二类原油与腹部地区绝大多数原油十分相似,来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩;第三类原油碳同位索组成轻,重排甾烷、Ts、C_(29)Ts及C_(30)重排藿烷异常丰富,来源于中上三叠统湖相烃源岩;第四类原油源于侏罗系煤系烃源岩;混合类原油为二叠系、三叠系、侏罗系原油的混合,各自贡献平均分别为20%、15%和65%。南缘存在4类典型原油,为第二、第四、第五和第六类原油,其中第二、第四类分别源于二叠系和侏罗系;第五类原油碳同位素组成轻(δ~(13)C-29‰)、Pr/Ph1.0、伽马蜡烷丰富且有两个异构体、Ts、C_(29)Ts、C_(30)重排藿烷、C_(27)~C_(29)异胆甾烷及C_(30)甲基甾烷丰富,来源于白垩系湖相烃源岩;第六类原油主要为中低成熟原油,碳同位素组成δ~(13)C~28‰~-26‰,C_(27)、C_(28)、C_(29)甾烷呈"V"型分布,甲藻甾烷异常丰富,来源于古近系湖相烃源岩。准噶尔盆地天然气有油型气、混合气和煤型气,前两类主要来源于二叠系湖相烃源岩和石炭系海相烃源岩,煤型气主要来源于石炭系和侏罗系煤系烃源岩。不同类型油气分布与不同时代烃源灶具有良好对应关系:石炭系油气主要分布于陆东-五彩湾;二叠系油气主要分布于西北缘、腹部与东部;三叠系原油仅分布于东部;侏罗系原油主要分布于东部与南部;白垩系原油仅分布于南缘中部;古近系原油仅分布于南缘西部。按照盆地构造特征及不同时代烃源灶与油气关系,将准噶尔盆地划分为西部、中部、东部、南部及乌伦古5个油气系统及15个子油气系统。     

Assessing Performance of Tomo-SAR and Backscattering Coefficient for Hemi-Boreal Forest Aboveground Biomass Estimation

Tomo-SAR technique has been used for hemi-boreal forest height and further forest biomass estimation through allometric equation. Backscattering coefficient especially in longer wavelength (L- or P-band) is thought as a useful parameter for hemi-boreal forest biomass retrieval. The aim of this paper is to assess the performance of vertical backscattering power and backscattering coefficient for hemi-boreal forest aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation with airborne P-band data. The test site locates in southern Sweden called Remningstorp test site, and the in-situ forest AGB ranges from 14 t/ha to 245 t/ha at stand level. Multi-baseline P-band Pol-InSAR data in repeat-path mode collected during March and May in 2007 at Remningstorp test site was used. We found that the correlation coefficient (R) between backscattering coefficient of P-band HH polarization and the in-situ forest biomass reached 0.87. The R for P-band VV backscattering power at 5 m is 0.71 and 10 m is 0.72. Backscattering coefficient in HH polarization and vertical backscattering power at 5 m and 10 m were applied to construct a model for hemi-boreal forest AGB estimation by backward step-wise regression and cross-validation approach. The results showed that the estimated forest AGB ranges from 19 to 240 t/ha, and the constructed model obtained a higher R and smaller RMSE, the value of R is 0.91, RMSE is 30.43 t/ha at Remningstorp test site.     

Generating GPS satellite fractional cycle bias for ambiguity-fixed precise point positioning

With the development of precise point positioning (PPP), the School of Geodesy and Geomatics (SGG) at Wuhan University is now routinely producing GPS satellite fractional cycle bias (FCB) products with open access for worldwide PPP users to conduct ambiguity-fixed PPP solution. We provide a brief theoretical background of PPP and present the strategies and models to compute the FCB products. The practical realization of the two-step (wide-lane and narrow-lane) FCB estimation scheme is described in detail. With GPS measurements taken in various situations, i.e., static, dynamic, and on low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, the quality of FCB estimation and the effectiveness of PPP ambiguity resolution (AR) are evaluated. The comparison with CNES FCBs indicated that our FCBs had a good consistency with the CNES ones. For wide-lane FCB, almost all the differences of the two products were within ±0.05 cycles. For narrow-lane FCB, 87.8 % of the differences were located between ±0.05 cycles, and 97.4 % of them were located between ±0.075 cycles. The experimental results showed that, compared with conventional ambiguity-float PPP, the averaged position RMS of static PPP can be improved from (3.6, 1.4, 3.6) to (2.0, 1.0, 2.7) centimeters for ambiguity-fixed PPP. The average accuracy improvement in the east, north, and up components reached 44.4, 28.6, and 25.0 %, respectively. A kinematic, ambiguity-fixed PPP test with observation of 80 min achieved a position accuracy of better than 5 cm at the one-sigma level in all three coordinate components. Compared with the results of ambiguity-float, kinematic PPP, the positioning biases of ambiguity-fixed PPP were improved by about 78.2, 20.8, and 65.1 % in east, north, and up. The RMS of LEO PPP test was improved by about 23.0, 37.0, and 43.0 % for GRACE-A and GRACE-B in radial, tangential, and normal directions when AR was applied to the same data set. These results demonstrated that the SGG FCB products can be produced with high quality for users anywhere around the world to carry out ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions.     

Weak GPS signal tracking using FFT discriminator in open loop receiver

An open loop tracking architecture, which tracks GPS signals under weak and challenging conditions, is analyzed. The in-phase and quadrature-phase integration pair is regarded as a single tone complex signal. An FFT-based method is used as a frequency discriminator to estimate the Doppler frequency residual of the single tone signal. Another FFT-based method applies complex squaring to eliminate the effect of the navigation data bits polarities. The performance of the FFT-based discriminators is assessed in three criteria. Those criteria are the signal strength and dynamic range that can be tracked and the accuracy of the estimated Doppler frequency. In addition, the performance of the discriminators is analyzed to provide the theoretical and simulated peak detection probability. The results indicate that the FFT discriminator can track signals about 5 dB weaker than the signals that can be tracked by the complex squared FFT discriminator. In a quasi-static environment, the Doppler frequency residual can be assumed to be around zero, which can enable the FFT-based discriminators to track signals with approximately 2 dB less power. Moreover, the performance of the FFT-based discriminators is compared with the performance of two other frequency discriminators, namely the fast–slow and power-based. The comparison results indicate that these two frequency discriminators give higher frequency estimation accuracy, but they have a narrower dynamic range.