一次暴雨过程多普勒天气雷达风场资料分析

通过对１９９御７月１４日的大－暴雨天气过程所获取的３８２４多普勒天气雷达平均径向风场资料的分析，发现边界层急流与较强的降水相伴。表明多普勒天气雷达对中小尺度天气系统和灾害性天气预报有预警作用。     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON DOMINATING FACTOR AND KEY AREA OF EL NINO CYCLE FORMATION*

A coupled model,which is employed to study the dominating factor and key area of El Nino cycle formation,consists of a dynamical ocean model and a statistical atmospheric model.The coupled model with seasonal forcing successfully reproduces the El Nino event cycle which exhibits quasi-regular oscillations with a preferred period of about 4 years.The results show that the heat content(HC) is transported between the eastern and the western tropical Pacific areas.The spatial distribution of HC anomalies for four phases of the whole cycle clearly shows a possible formation mechanism of El Nino.Experiments further suggest that sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific and HC in the central tropical Pacific are the most important factors and the central tropical Pacific is the most important area for determining formation of El Nino cycle.     

2010年沙尘天气对巴彦浩特空气质量的影响

利用巴彦浩特2010年1月至2011年2月PM10、SO2、NO2的逐日监测数据和同一时期气象观测资料,分析巴彦浩特空气污染物特征及PM10浓度与沙尘天气之间的关系。分析结果表明:2010年春、夏、秋三季巴彦浩特的主要污染物是PM10,冬季主要污染物是SO2;沙尘天气是造成巴彦浩特PM10浓度变化的最重要因素;影响巴彦浩特空气质量的沙尘主要来源于其西北方向和西北偏北方向。建议有关部门在巴彦浩特西北地区搞好生态保护与建设,以减轻沙尘天气对巴彦浩特地区空气质量的影响。     

Shortwave cloud radiative forcing on major stratus cloud regions in AMIP-type simulations of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models

Cloud and its radiative effects are major sources of uncertainty that lead to simulation discrepancies in climate models. In this study, shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) over major stratus regions is evaluated for Atmospheric Models Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations of models involved in the third and fifth phases of the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Over stratus regions, large deviations in both climatological mean and seasonal cycle of SWCF are found among the models. An ambient field sorted by dynamic (vertical motion) and thermodynamic (inversion strength or stability) regimes is constructed and used to measure the response of SWCF to large-scale controls. In marine boundary layer regions, despite both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models being able to capture well the center and range of occurrence frequency for the ambient field, most of the models fail to simulate the dependence of SWCF on boundary layer inversion and the insensitivity of SWCF to vertical motion. For eastern China, there are large differences even in the simulated ambient fields. Moreover, almost no model can reproduce intense SWCF in rising motion and high stability regimes. It is also found that models with a finer grid resolution have no evident superiority than their lower resolution versions. The uncertainties relating to SWCF in state-of-the-art models may limit their performance in IPCC experiments.     

灰色～周期外延组合模型在吉兰太盐湖卤水动态预测中的应用

本文利用灰色预测和周期外延预测模型的优点,提出了灰色预测与周期外延预测相结合的灰色～周期外延组合模型,对吉兰太盐湖卤水的动态变化进行了模拟,结果可靠,该模型可广泛应用地下水动态预测和其它序列预测。     

2.5-D DC Resistivity Modeling Considering Flexibility and Accuracy

We highlighted the flexibility of using unstructured mesh together with the local refinement by a resistivity model with complicated topography. The effect of topography is emphasized. Based on this, we calculated a specific class of layered models and found that the accuracy is not always satisfactory by utilizing the standard approach. As an improvement, we employed the layered earth as the reference model to calculate the wavenumbers. The comparison demonstrates that the accuracy is considerably improved...     

Observation and study on the whole process of cloud-to-ground lightning using narrowband radio interferometer

A narrowband radio interferometer has been developed and used to locate the entire sources of VHF radiations from a negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharge which contains 19 strokes. This system uses five antennas to form an array consisting of short- and long-baselines along two or- thogonal directions. The system error which comes from frequency conversion is reduced by phase detection through direct high frequency amplifying. An interactive graphic analysis procedure is used to remove the fringe ambiguities which exist inherently in interferometry and to determine the direction of lightning radiation sources in two dimensions (azimuth and elevation) as a function of time at a time resolution of microsecond orders. With the developed system, the whole progression process in time and space of a lightning flash can be reconstructed. In this paper, combining the synchronous data of electric filed change and VHF radiation, the whole processes of an example negative CG flash have been studied in detail. It is found that the preliminary breakdown event of the CG flash started from negative charge region and exhibited firstly a downward pregression and then an upward propagation. There were very intense and continuous radiations during stepped leaders which became much stronger when the first return stroke began. In contrast, there were less and only discrete radiations during dart leaders. Stepped leader and dart leader may transform to each other depending on the state of the ionization of the path. The progression speed of initial stepped leaders was about 105 ms?1, while that was about 4.1×106 and 6.0×106 ms?1 for dart leaders and dart-stepped leaders, respectively. M events produced hook-shaped field changes accompanied by active burst of radiations at their begin- nings. Followed these active radiation processes, M events appeared to contact finally into conducting main discharge channels. The mean progression speed of M events was about 7×107 ms?1, greater than that of the dart leaders and dart-step leaders. K events and attempted leaders were essentially the same as dart leaders except that they could not reach the ground and initiate return strokes.     

海底节点不同震相逆时偏移成像研究

对近海海域进行地壳速度结构高精度成像有助于深入了解我国近海地震活动、深部孕震构造条件,揭示海域构造特征及其相互作用模式,为海域地震区划和风险评估提供基础支撑。在海底节点观测系统中,由于海底、海平面等强波阻抗差界面的存在,台站记录了较多强能量的后续震相。与初至震相相比,后续震相在地球内部来回反射,传播路径长、携带构造信息多,充分利用后续震相有望获得高精度的地下构造成像结果。逆时偏移是勘探地球物理中精度较高的成像方法之一,且易于实现。将逆时偏移算法引入海底节点初至震相和后续震相成像,采用常规逆时偏移对反射震相进行偏移,对上行一阶海底震相、上行一阶后续震相成像均进行镜像法逆时偏移,通过修改逆时偏移框架,实现初至震相的成像。研究结果表明,逆时偏移能够有效对反射震相进行地下偏移归位;采用镜像法逆时偏移对上行一阶海底震相、上行一阶自由表面震相进行成像,能够有效增大成像范围;修改逆时偏移框架,初至震相能够对断层进行准确定位。     

长株潭城市群耕地动态变化及驱动力实证研究

利用长株潭城市群近10年的土地利用调查数据及相关社会经济资料,宏观分析了该区域耕地动态变化的趋势,并用主成分分析和多元逐步回归分析法探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动力。结果表明,长株潭城市群耕地资源的时空变化特征显著,耕地呈现出逐年减少的总体趋势;得出社会发展因素、经济增长因素、农业科技水平的提高因素以及国家的相关政策是长株潭城市群耕地资源变化的四大类主要驱动因素;总体上,耕地面积与社会经济发展各因素间的相关系数约低于累计耕地面积与各因素之间的相关系数,说明该区域耕地减少与社会经济发展存在时间上的错位性,即经济和社会发展滞后于对耕地资源的占用。     

乌兰布和沙漠东南缘白沙蒿(Artemisia sphaerocphala)灌丛沙堆形态特征与固沙能力

白沙蒿(Artemisia sphaerocphala)灌丛沙堆是乌兰布和沙漠最为广泛分布的典型荒漠灌丛沙堆之一。本研究对白沙蒿灌丛的灌丛形态参数、沙堆形态参数进行了野外测定,探讨沙堆形态发育及固沙能力与白沙蒿灌丛形态的关系。结果表明:白沙蒿灌丛高度随着灌丛半径的增加而呈对数曲线增加,在灌丛较小时灌丛高度增长较快,随后渐趋于稳定,其水平方向发育速度大于垂直方向;白沙蒿灌丛沙堆半径及高度随灌丛半径和高度增加而增加,二者呈显著线性关系,沙堆水平方向发育受到灌丛冠幅的影响,沙堆垂直方向的发育水平取决于灌丛高度;随白沙蒿地上部分鲜重的增加,灌丛沙堆底面积、高度、沙堆体积和固沙效率均呈极显著线性增加(p0.01);白沙蒿灌丛越大其固积沙堆也越大,固沙率越高,不同大小灌丛白沙蒿间的固沙效率差异显著(p0.05);白沙蒿灌丛背风侧的积沙宽度(y)与积沙距离(x)显著相关(R2=0.9917),其线性回归方程为y=-19.654x+122.41,在距离灌丛背风面6~7倍高度的地方,积沙接近消失。