冬春季切变类冰雹发生条件的对比分析

本文以 1996年 12月 31日和 1981年 5月 1日为例 ,对冬、春季节发生在江苏的较大范围的切变类冰雹天气过程作了对比分析。结果指出 ,无论冬季或春季当高原东部有深槽东移 ,冷暖空气在江淮地区交汇 ,地面抬升系统为暖切 ,并有大气层结不稳定 (Δθse( 50 0 - 850 ) <0℃ =中心和较强的风向和风速垂直切变、85 0hPa西南急流轴、85 0hPa最大水汽通量轴线、5 0 0和 85 0hPa正涡度中心等相配置时 ,就可能导致江苏地区较大范围强对流天气的发生。     

四川盆地西北部二叠系栖霞阶层序地层特征及地质意义

基于露头、钻井岩心和测录井资料,采用层序地层学理论与方法,将四川盆地西北部二叠系梁山组+栖霞组作为一个整体予以解剖,识别出梁山组底界面(Ⅰ型)、栖一段与栖二段界面(Ⅱ型)和栖霞组与茅口组界面(Ⅰ型)3个三级层序界面,将中二叠统栖霞阶划分为2个三级层序: 下部的SQ1层序对应梁山组+栖一段,上部的SQ2层序对应栖二段。通过栖霞阶层序地层格架分析,发现栖霞阶地层存在“底超顶削”的充填规律,统计并绘制SQ1与SQ2层序地层厚度等值线图,对研究区栖霞阶SQ1初期和SQ2期构造—古地理格局进行了恢复,在明确SQ2期为栖霞阶主要成滩期的基础上,结合岩溶发育单元及白云岩展布特征,讨论栖霞阶油气储集意义。结果表明:区内栖霞阶存在北西、北东向隆坳分异,汉南隆起、川北隆起、北缘隆起与广元—旺苍凹陷始终控制了区内沉积格局,指出广元—旺苍海槽雏形始于二叠系栖霞阶。研究区岩溶白云岩孔洞型储集层区与环广元—旺苍凹陷周缘的灰岩岩溶型储集层区为有利的勘探区。     

黑龙江省玉米低温冷害风险评估及预估

利用气候资料、地理信息数据及社会经济数据,根据自然灾害风险理论和低温冷害形成机制,采用GIS技术,分析了黑龙江省玉米低温冷害的危险性和易损性,实现了玉米低温冷害的风险评估与区划,并利用CMIP5中的MRI-CGCM3模式模拟结果对黑龙江省2015-2044年玉米低温冷害风险进行预估。结果表明：1961年以来共有24年是低温冷害年,其中12年是严重低温冷害年。松嫩平原大部、三江平原大部及黑河南部是玉米一般低温冷害的多发区,同时该区暴露性较高,如有重度灾害发生,则对全省粮食产量产生严重影响。未来30年,黑龙江省低温冷害发生的概率有所减少,松嫩平原东部和南部是一般低温冷害的高风险区,三江平原西部是严重低温冷害的高风险区。     

荞麦作物观测技术简介

文章介绍了荞麦作物的生长特性、环境要求及荞麦发育期、发育期标准、生长状况测定、产量结构分析、大田生长状况调查等观测内容和技术要求,可供测站在荞麦发育期观测和服务时参考。     

Mass Concentration and Mineralogical Characteristics of Aerosol Particles Collected at Dunhuang During ACE-Asia

Measurements were performed in spring 2001 and 2002 to determine the characteristics of soil dust in the Chinese desert region of Dunhuang, one of the ground sites of the Asia-Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia). The mean mass concentrations of total suspended particle matter during the spring of 2001 and 2002 were 317 μg m?3 and 307 μg m?3, respectively. Eleven dust storm events were observed with a mean aerosol concentration of 1095 μg m?3, while the non-dusty days with calm or weak wind speed had a background aerosol loading of 196 μgm?3 on average in the springtime. The main minerals detected in the aerosol samples by X-ray diffraction were illite, kaolinite, chlorite, quartz, feldspar, calcite and dolomite. Gypsum, halite and amphibole were also detected in a few samples. The mineralogical data also show that Asian dust is characterized by a kaolinite to chlorite (K/C) ratio lower than 1 whereas Saharan dust exhibits a K/C ratio larger than 2. Air mass back-trajectory analysis show that three families of pathways are associated with the aerosol particle transport to Dunhuang, but these have similar K/C ratios, which further demonstrates that the mineralogical characteristics of Asian dust are different from African dust.     

水库流域体积降水量预报方法研究

根据广东飞来峡水库流域汇流特征,将全流域划分为5个支流,并采用求积仪分别计算各支流面积;然后用加权平均法计算各支流的面雨量,并将各支流面雨量对相应的支流面积进行积分,计算各支流体积降雨量;利用洪水过程飞来峡水库入库流量、出库流量和水库流域蒸发量对体积降水量预报结果进行验证,求出误差订正系数.结果表明:利用加权平均法计算的水库流域体积降水量,经过误差订正后,预报准确率可控制在90%左右,基本满足预报业务服务要求.     

豫西一次强对流天气过程的诊断分析

2010年9月4日凌晨,豫西地区出现罕见的强对流天气过程,造成严重损失.利用1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料、常规观测资料、卫星观测资料以及多普勒雷达资料,对此次过程进行诊断分析.结果表明,此次强对流天气过程中不仅具有明显的低层辐合、高层辐散的气流垂直运动,而且在多普勒雷达上有明显的辐合型中气旋存在.通过对垂直积分液态水...     

制作汛期降水集成预报的分区权重法

该文提出一种不受历史预报档案资料多少限制的集成预报方法。这个方法的基本思想是以各种不同预报的历史评分资料为基础,确定各个预报方法的权重。根据若干原则设计了16种预报方案。计算结果表明,这个方法具有较高的准确度和可行性,可以用于业务预报。     

Climate change affecting temperature and aridity zones: a case study in Eastern Inner Mongolia, China from 1960–2008

Recent climate change is substantially affecting the spatial pattern of geographical zones, and the temporal and spatial inconsistency of climatic warming and drying patterns contributes to the complexity of the shifting of temperature and aridity zones. Eastern Inner Mongolia, China, located in the interface region of different biomes and ecogeographic zones, has experienced dramatic drying and warming over the past several decades. In this study, the annual accumulated temperature above 10 °C (AAT10) and the aridity index, two key indicators in geographical regionalization, are used to assess warming and drying processes and track the movements of temperature and aridity zones from 1960 to 2008. The results show a significant warming at the regional level from 1960 to 2008 with an AAT10 increase rate of 7.89 °C·d/year (p?<?0.001) in Eastern Inner Mongolia, while the drying trend was not significant during this period. Spatial heterogeneity of warming and drying distributions was also evident. Analysis of warming and drying via piecewise regression revealed two separate, specific trends between the first 31 years (1960–1990) and the subsequent 18 years (1991–2008). Generally, mild warming and very slight wetting occurred prior to 1990, while after 1991 both warming and drying were significant and enhanced. Continuous warming drove a northward shift of temperature zones from the 1960s to 2000s, while aridity zones displayed enhanced temporal and spatial variability. Climate change effects on temperature and aridity zones imply that the patterns of cropping systems, macro-ecosystems, and human land use modes are potentially undergoing migration and modification due to climate change.     

气候系统可预报性的全局研究

胞映射方法是对非线性系统进行全局分析的强有力工具。文中基于一个最大简化的地－气耦合模式,引入胞映射全局分析方法,对气候系统的可预报性进行了全局的研究。气候系统存在最大可预报期限,对于超过逐日预报可预报期限后的预报,用胞映射思想证明了平均值的可预报性,并得到了定量的结果。研究表明,耦合机制具有延长可预报期限的作用,观测精度的提高亦可延长可预报期限