北京居民生活满意度的多层级定序因变量模型分析

传统经济学视角出发的个体生活满意度研究往往忽略了数据的嵌套性,多层级模型更适用于地理学中分析不同层级地理单元特征对个体生活满意度的影响。采用多层级定序因变量模型,以北京为例,研究居民生活满意度在城市内部街道和居住小区尺度内的异质性,并研究了高层级地理空间单元的属性特征对居民生活满意度的影响。结果表明,生活满意度在居住小区层级的异质性远高于街道层级,个体自身的社会经济属性对个体的生活满意度有显著影响,总的来说,高收入、老年人、北京户口居民的生活满意度更高。除个体属性特征以外,居住小区的类型是影响生活满意度的重要因素,商品房小区居民的满意度显著高于保障房和单位房小区居民。     

南极普里兹湾及邻近南大洋水体N_2O分布特征

利用中国第25、26次南极科学考察航次获得南极普里兹湾及邻近南大洋附近水样,采用顶空气相色谱法分析其中N_2O含量,结果表明普里兹湾陆架水体N_2O浓度较低,介于13.2―17.4 nmol·L~(-1),且呈现不饱和状态,饱和度异常值为-7%;而普里兹湾附近南大洋水体中N_2O浓度较高,介于15.5―23.3 nmol·L-1,除表面一层极薄的不饱和层外,中层至底层水体相对工业革命前大气浓度为高度过饱和状态。该区域N_2O的分布格局与复杂的水团特性和水文过程有密切关系。N_2O含量不饱和的普里兹湾陆架水(SW)和绕极深层流(CDW)混合下沉形成南极底层水(AABW),可能为温室气体N_2O提供向深层海洋输运的通路。这个过程为大气N_2O提供了一个汇的机制,使南极近岸水体成为大气N_2O的汇区。     

Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Procedures for the Florida Keys

The unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people – a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded.     

Loading/Unloading response ratio theory applied in predicting deep-seated landslides triggering

Rainfall is the most relevant factor for the triggering of landslides and it is characterized by an extreme variability. Rainfall analysis is the most frequently adopted approach for predicting landslides. But predicting deep-seated landslides by means of rainfall thresholds is sometimes inadequate due to the complexity of such slopes. In this paper, further study of the loading / unloading response ratio theory applied in landslides prediction was carried out. As the aforementioned effect and character of rainfall was concerned, a prediction for the known Xintan landslide was carried out by means of the loading / unloading response ratio method, in which the action of water was regarded as loading/unloading measures. The results show that it is an effective method for landslides prediction, and it has an advantage over conventional rainfall thresholds or time sequences analysis method.     

珠峰附近的重力场及其重力值推估

根据有限的重力资料,首先对珠穆朗玛峰附近的重力场特征作了分析,结果表明,空间异常（Δｇｆ）均为正值且变化剧烈,它主要受地形起伏制约;布格异常（Δｇｂ）均为负值,但比其北侧高原大,说明喜马拉雅山虽然最高,但“山根”并非最深;均衡异常（Δｇｉ）均为正值,且比南北两侧为大,揭示了喜马拉雅山脊的下方可能存在密度较大的物质。其次,根据Δｇｆ与高程相关性极强（关联度达０．９６～０．９７）的特点与４种有关的公式,有效地推估了珠峰顶上的重力值,该值为９７６９８０×１０－５ｍ·ｓ－２,其平均误差为±６×１０－５ｍ·ｓ－２。这一结果可为精确确定珠峰的大地水准面和正高提供必要的数据。     

兰州大气颗粒物和水溶性离子及其降水中元素组成的关系

本文论述了兰州市区不同季节大气颗粒物污染状况，它的水溶性复合离子浓度分布，同期降水中阴、阳离子组成以及它们之间的关系。研究结果表明；该地区大气颗粒物污染较为严重。它的水溶物和同期降水化学组成复杂，与Ｃａ￣（２＋）离子浓度之和在二者的总离子中分别占５９．２％和５７．８％。并呈“硫酸－钙”型污染特征。受人为污染的影响颗粒物水溶性离子浓度冬季较高。受沙尘影响春季降水中的Ｃａ￣（２＋）离子浓度高于其它季节。     

南海北部陆缘地震带基本特征及区域稳定性初步分析

讨论了南海北部陆缘断裂构造的格局及其活动性，提出南海北部陆缘地震带与邻区其它地震带有别的新观点，对该区各地震带的地震活动进行了探讨，分析了强震构造与活动断裂的关系。通过综合分析，将该区划分为强活动、中等活动和微弱活动三大区域。     

马起乏地磁测点迁移与优化

为保证三河电厂的建设以及地震监测预报工作的持续进行，开展了马起乏测点迁移优化工作。按照测点迁移原则与实施技术方案，收集整理了三河及其附近地区的地质构造、地震活动性、航磁、地球物理等方面的基本资料。在马起乏周围１０－１５ｋｍ范围内进行了野外实地考察与勘测工作。经过分析比较，确定田庄、灵山、东兴在为合适的测点迁移的新地址。