深圳市流感就诊率季节特征及夏季流感就诊率气象预报模型

利用深圳市2003-2007年5年的流感样病例资料和同期气象资料,对深圳市夏季流感与气象条件的关系进行了分析与统计。研究发现深圳市流感高峰期发生在春季和夏季,且存在向夏季转移的趋势,这种流感流行的季节差异与天气条件有很大的关系,受气温、相对湿度的影响显著,在平均气温处于25-30℃之间,相对湿度较高的天气条件下易出现流感高峰。用最低气温、最小相对湿度和日照时数为预报因子,建立了深圳市夏季流感就诊率的等级预报模型。     

高速铁路与国家地震台网信息接入及资源共享方式研究

本文对高速铁路与国家地震台网信息接入和资源共享方式进行了讨论。通过对组网模式和时延的分析及测试,在遵循目前地震系统信息传输模式的前提下,对于实时波形数据,可以根据实际情况采取国家中心型或者省局中心型的方式进行共享,用于高铁系统台站的补充,在地震预警发布阶段使用;对于地震速报信息,可以采取国家中心型的方式进行共享,用于地震信息的确认,在地震预警解除阶段使用。为了减小实时数据传输的时延以适应预警需求,应对数据采集器进行升级,并更新相应的流服务器的仪器适配器。     

Mesoscale modeling study of severe convection over complex terrain

Short squall lines that occurred over Lishui, southwestern Zhejiang Province, China, on 5 July 2012, were investigated using the WRF model based on 1°× 1° gridded NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis data. The results from the numerical simulations were particularly satisfactory in the simulated radar echo, which realistically reproduced the generation and development of the convective cells during the period of severe convection. The initiation of this severe convective case was mainly associated with the uplift effect of mesoscale mountains, topographic convergence, sufficient water vapor, and enhanced low-level southeasterly wind from the East China Sea. An obvious wind velocity gradient occurred between the Donggong Mountains and the southeast coastline, which easily enabled wind convergence on the windward slope of the Donggong Mountains; both strong mid–low-level southwesterly wind and low-level southeasterly wind enhanced vertical shear over the mountains to form instability; and a vertical coupling relation between the divergence on the upper-left side of the Donggong Mountains and the convergence on the lower-left side caused the convection to develop rapidly. The convergence centers of surface streams occurred over the mountain terrain and updrafts easily broke through the lifting condensation level(LCL) because of the strong wind convergence and topographic lift, which led to water vapor condensation above the LCL and the generation of the initial convective cloud. The centers of surface convergence continually created new convective cells that moved with the southwest wind and combined along the Donggong Mountains, eventually forming a short squall line that caused severe convective weather.     

山西长治辛安泉域岩溶水硫酸盐污染来源分析

辛安泉域核心区域工农业相对发达,人类活动强烈,逐渐出现岩溶地下水位下降、泉流量减小和水质污染等水环境问题。硫酸盐污染是泉域岩溶水的主要污染物之一,通过科学手段进行污染来源分析和识别,可为泉域保护提供决策依据。硫氧同位素是地下水领域应用较广的一种环境同位素方法,不仅技术成熟且识别精度高。本次研究将硫氧同位素方法与水化学方法结合,在辛安泉域采取岩溶泉水、岩溶地下水、孔隙水、裂隙水和河水五类水样,测试硫同位素δ34S、氧同位素δ18O和硫酸根离子SO42-含量,以分析辛安泉域岩溶水硫酸盐污染来源。结果显示,辛安泉域岩溶水水质的硫酸盐大部分符合地下水III类标准,硫酸盐含量较高的区域主要集中在西部滞流缓流区与襄垣和长治子系统的分界处、长治子系统和平顺-壶关子系统南部等地区。西部滞流缓流区硫酸盐主要来源于石膏、硬石膏的溶蚀,人类活动影响较小。泉域南部岩溶水中硫酸盐主要来源是煤矿开采的影响,大气沉降也是重要来源之一。     

地史中成矿演化的趋势和阶段性

大量的地质矿产资料表明，随着地球的形成和发展，尤其是水圈、大气圈和生物圈的演化，成矿作用也呈前进的、不可逆的发展趋势，表现在成矿物质（矿种）由少到多；矿床类型由简到繁；成矿频率由低到高；聚矿能力由弱到强。受地球上重大地质事件的制约，这一成矿演化过程又表现出阶段性，可划分出７个成矿大阶段，即太古宙、古元古代、中元古代、新元古代、早古生代、晚古生代—早中生代、晚中生代—新生代等成矿期。每一期中都有特定的成矿构造环境和矿床成因类型。制约地史上成矿演化的主要因素有：①成矿物质的地球化学性质；②水圈、大气圈和生物圈的演化；③地球构造运动的演变。矿床形成后的保存条件对矿床的时空分布特征也有重要影响。     

Detecting the storage and change on topsoil organic carbon in grasslands of Inner Mongolia from 1980s to 2010s

Soil carbon sequestration and potential has been a focal issue in global carbon research. Under the background of global change, the estimation of the size as well as its change of soil organic carbon（SOC） storage is of great importance. Based on soil data from the second national soil survey and field survey during 2011–2012, by using the regression method between sampling soil data and remote sensing data, this paper aimed to investigate spatial distribution and changes of topsoil（0–20 cm） organic carbon storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s. The results showed that：（1） the SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia between the 1980 s and 2010 s was estimated to be 2.05 and 2.17 Pg C, with an average density of 3.48 and 3.69 kg C·m–2, respectively. The SOC storage was mainly distributed in the typical steppe and meadow steppe, which accounted for over 98% of the total SOC storage. The spatial distribution showed a decreased trend from the meadow steppe, typical steppe to the desert steppe, corresponding to the temperature and precipitation gradient.（2） SOC changes during 1982–2012 were estimated to be 0.12 Pg C, at 7.00 g C·m–2·yr–1, which didn＇t show a significant change, indicating that SOC storage in grasslands of Inner Mongolia remained relatively stable over this period. However, topsoil organic carbon showed different trends of carbon source/sink during the past three decades. Meadow steppe and typical steppe had sequestered 0.15 and 0.03 Pg C, respectively, served as a carbon sink; while desert steppe lost 0.06 Pg C, served as a carbon source. It appears that SOC storage in grassland ecosystem may respond differently to climate change, related to vegetation type, regional climate type and grazing intensity. These results might give advice to decision makers on adopting suitable countermeasures for sustainable grassland utilization and protection.     

基于深度学习的随船波浪测量技术研究

深海极端波浪环境为浮式海洋平台作业时最为关键的海洋动力环境之一。在其作用下,深海浮式平台的运动、气隙以及结构响应等均为近年来的研究热点。然而,在深海环境中,入射波浪环境往往通过X波段雷达进行测量,仅能获得波浪的短时统计值,极大限制了实海域浮动平台动力响应的研究。目前,尚无成熟的方法能够对海洋浮式平台所处海域的入射波时序进行实时测量。针对深远海半潜式平台的波浪时序随船测量问题,结合平台气隙响应与运动响应数据建立基于深层神经网络的波浪非线性解耦模型,准确估计辐射、绕射波浪以及其非线性成分对时序波浪场的影响。研究显示,基于深度神经网络的波浪时序测量技术可以实现从气隙响应到入射波信息的反推,利用该方法计算得到的波浪时序具有较高的精度。     

The Mobility of Rare—Earth Elements During Hydrothermal Activity：A Review

The mobility of the rare-earth elements(REE)during hydrothermal activities is increasingly documented.Geological and experimental evidence suggests that REE may be mobile in solutions rich in F^-,Cl^-,HCO3^-,CO^2- 3,HPO4^2-,PO4^3-,or in combinations of the above ligands,even though little has been known about which ligand or which combination is most effective in mobilizing REE. The fractionation of REE resulting from hydrothermal activities is inconsistent.One set of field data implies the prererential mobility of the light rare-earth elements(LREE).whereas another set of field observations indicates the dominant mobilization of the heavy rare earth elements(HREE),and some theoretical prediction is comtradictory to the field evidence.The Eu anomalies due to hydrothermal activities are complex and plausible explanation is not available.The existing experimental approaches dealing with REE are not adequate for explanation ofREE behaviour in aqueous solutions.Systematic experimental approaches are suggested.     

气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势

The climate change in China shows a considerable similarity to the global change, though there still exist some significant differences between them. In the context of the global warming, the annual mean surface air temperature in the country as a whole has significantly increased for the past 50 years and 100 years, with the range of temperature increase slightly greater than that in the globe. The change in precipitation trends for the last 50 and 100 years was not significant, but since 1956 it has assumed a weak increasing trend. The frequency and intensity of main extreme weather and climate events have also undergone a significant change. The researches show that the atmospheric CO2 concentration in China has continuously increased and the sum of positive radiative forcings produced by greenhouse gases is probably responsible for the country-wide climate warming for the past 100 years, especially for the past 50 years. The projections of climate change for the 21st century using global and regional climate models indicate that, in the future 20-100 years, the surface air temperature will continue to increase and the annual precipitation also has an increasing trend for most parts of the country.     

新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在建筑物沉降预测中的应用研究

本文针对传统GM(1,1)模型存在的不足,建立了新陈代谢GM(1,1)沉降预测模型.并以某建筑物沉降为例对比两模型的预测值,结果表明新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型在处理该类数据上更加具有一定的优势.