Decorrelated GRACE time-variable gravity solutions by GFZ,and their validation using a hydrological model

We have analyzed recent gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) RL04 monthly gravity solutions, using a new decorrelating post-processing approach. We find very good agreement with mass anomalies derived from a global hydrological model. The post-processed GRACE solutions exhibit only little amplitude damping and an almost negligible phase shift and period distortion for relevant hydrological basins. Furthermore, these post-processed GRACE solutions have been inspected in terms of data fit with respect to the original inter-satellite ranging and to SLR and GPS observations. This kind of comparison is new. We find variations of the data fit due to solution post-processing only within very narrow limits. This confirms our suspicion that GRACE data do not firmly ‘pinpoint’ the standard unconstrained solutions. Regarding the original Kusche (J Geod 81:733–749, 2007) decorrelation and smoothing method, a simplified (order-convolution) approach has been developed. This simplified approach allows to realize a higher resolution—as necessary, e.g., for generating computed GRACE observations—and needs far less coefficients to be stored.     

Space-time characteristics of a fracture region determined from long-term anomalies of the radon concentration

The paper proposes a method for studying long-term anomalies of the radon concentration that are produced by an impulse generated in a fracture source over a finite time interval. Using this method, experimental data are interpreted numerically in order to determine the space-time characteristics of the fracture region and parameters of fluid migration.     

To what extent can atmospheric deposition influence the natural background of metals in ground waters? A case study in the Czech Republic

In harmony with requirements of Water Framework Directive the natural backgrounds of selected metals were established on the territory of Czech Republic. This paper is intended to provide characteristics and results of testing methods focused on quantification of the impacts of anthropogenic activities based on data of regional monitoring and their separation from acid atmospheric deposition including an appropriate discussion regarding the natural backgrounds of relevant metals. The results indicate that even in regions extremely affected by acid atmospheric deposition as is the territory of the Czech Republic this acid deposition will not have direct impact on the quality of ground waters on a regional scale. Consequently, the proved changes in quality of ground waters seem to have been caused by secondary processes, specifically by mobilization of metals in a rock environment due to increased acidity.     

Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades.     

Exchange and correlation interactions in electron-positron plasma

The effect of particle-particle interaction on the adiabatic index γ for an electron-positron plasma is considered. An improved method for numerically calculating the Hartree-Fock exchange integral is presented and its relativistic asymptotics is determined. An approximation formula is derived for the correlation part of the interaction in the low-density limit. This formula includes degeneracy and the positron component.     

A Multiple Flare Scenario where the Classic Long-Duration Flare Was Not the Source of a CME

A series of flares (GOES class M, M and C) and a CME were observed in close succession on 20 January 2004 in NOAA 10540. Radio observations, which took the form of types II, III and N bursts, were associated with these events. We use the combined observations from TRACE, EIT, Hα images from Kwasan, MDI magnetograms and GOES to understand the complex development of this event. Contrary to a standard interpretation, we conclude that the first two impulsive flares are part of the CME launch process while the following long-duration event flare represents simply the recovery phase. Observations show that the flare ribbons not only separate but also shift along the magnetic inversion line so that magnetic reconnection progresses stepwise to neighboring flux tubes. We conclude that “tether cutting” reconnection in the sheared arcade progressively transforms it to a twisted flux tube, which becomes unstable, leading to a CME. We interpret the third flare, a long-duration event, as a combination of the classical two-ribbon flare with the relaxation process following forced reconnection between the expanding CME structure and neighboring magnetic fields. Electronic Supplementary Material  The online version of this article () contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

On the modern approach to the problem of detecting hazardous celestial bodies

The problem of detecting dangerous (in the sense of a collision with the Earth) celestial bodies of natural origin and the modern concept of building a system of detection of such bodies are discussed. The concept includes two items: remote detection of large (>50 m) hazardous objects providing warning time of several tens of days, which is sufficient to allow the active counteraction and detection of hazardous bodies larger than 10 m in near-Earth space providing warning time of few hours, which is sufficient to issue a warning and to carry out mitigation activities. Some examples of this approach and prospects of the international cooperation are discussed.     

The Mechanical Coupling of Fluid-Filled Granular Material Under Shear

The coupled mechanics of fluid-filled granular media controls the physics of many Earth systems, for example saturated soils, fault gouge, and landslide shear zones. It is well established that when the pore fluid pressure rises, the shear resistance of fluid-filled granular systems decreases, and, as a result, catastrophic events such as soil liquefaction, earthquakes, and accelerating landslides may be triggered. Alternatively, when the pore pressure drops, the shear resistance of these geosystems increases. Despite the great importance of the coupled mechanics of grain–fluid systems, the basic physics that controls this coupling is far from understood. Fundamental questions that must be addressed include: what are the processes that control pore fluid pressurization and depressurization in response to deformation of the granular skeleton? and how do variations of pore pressure affect the mechanical strength of the grains skeleton? To answer these questions, a formulation for the pore fluid pressure and flow has been developed from mass and momentum conservation, and is coupled with a granular dynamics algorithm that solves the grain dynamics, to form a fully coupled model. The pore fluid formulation reveals that the evolution of pore pressure obeys viscoelastic rheology in response to pore space variations. Under undrained conditions elastic-like behavior dominates and leads to a linear relationship between pore pressure and overall volumetric strain. Viscous-like behavior dominates under well-drained conditions and leads to a linear relationship between pore pressure and volumetric strain rate. Numerical simulations reveal the possibility of liquefaction under drained and initially over-compacted conditions, which were often believed to be resistant to liquefaction. Under such conditions liquefaction occurs during short compactive phases that punctuate the overall dilative trend. In addition, the previously recognized generation of elevated pore pressure under undrained compactive conditions is observed. Simulations also show that during liquefaction events stress chains are detached, the external load becomes completely supported by the pressurized pore fluid, and shear resistance vanishes.     

Bayesian data fusion in a spatial prediction context: a general formulation

In spite of the exponential growth in the amount of data that one may expect to provide greater modeling and predictions opportunities, the number and diversity of sources over which this information is fragmented is growing at an even faster rate. As a consequence, there is real need for methods that aim at reconciling them inside an epistemically sound theoretical framework. In a statistical spatial prediction framework, classical methods are based on a multivariate approach of the problem, at the price of strong modeling hypotheses. Though new avenues have been recently opened by focusing on the integration of uncertain data sources, to the best of our knowledges there have been no systematic attemps to explicitly account for information redundancy through a data fusion procedure. Starting from the simple concept of measurement errors, this paper proposes an approach for integrating multiple information processing as a part of the prediction process itself through a Bayesian approach. A general formulation is first proposed for deriving the prediction distribution of a continuous variable of interest at unsampled locations using on more or less uncertain (soft) information at neighboring locations. The case of multiple information is then considered, with a Bayesian solution to the problem of fusing multiple information that are provided as separate conditional probability distributions. Well-known methods and results are derived as limit cases. The convenient hypothesis of conditional independence is discussed by the light of information theory and maximum entropy principle, and a methodology is suggested for the optimal selection of the most informative subset of information, if needed. Based on a synthetic case study, an application of the methodology is presented and discussed.     

Gold–quartz deposits of the Zhdaninsky ore–placer cluster,eastern Yakutia: Structural control and formation conditions

Gold deposits and occurrences small in reserves and high in Au grade conventionally determine the line of prospecting in terrigenous sequences of the Verkhoyansk–Kolyma region. In this paper, the geological structure of such gold objects is considered with the example of the deposits and prospects making up the Zhdaninsky ore–placer cluster in the Republic of Sakha (Yakuia). From lithological, structural, and mineralogical–geochemical data, the formation conditions of ore-bearing complexes are specified, the geological evolution history of the northern Ol’chan Zone of the Kular–Nera Belt is reconstructed, and the zonal distribution of mineralization within the ore–placer cluster is revealed. The structural–compositional complexes were formed in the following succession: (1) sedimentation at the shelf of the passive margin accompanied by synsedimentation deformations; (2) metagenesis of sediments and the development of bedding-plane intraformational detachments of collision stage D₁ under conditions of tangential compression and accompanied by the formation of carbon dioxide–aqueous metamorphic fluid at a temperature of 300°C and under a pressure of 1.4 kbar; (3) folding and faulting of orogenic stage D₂ with the formation of synkinematic magmatic bodies, metasomatic alteration, and Au-bearig mineral assemblages. Small Au-bearing objects with veined mineralization and high Au grade are localized in structures of stage D₂ transverse to bedding-plane schistosity S₁. They form at the collision stage above intraformational detachment surfaces and are controlled by shear structures of the orogenic stage with misalignment of these deformations. The ore zoning is determined by the distribution of Co and Ni minerals and by variations in the anionic composition of ore (S, As, Sb).