东北地区初霜冻的天气气候特征

利用实测资料和历史天气图资料,对近３１年我国东北地区初霜冻的天气气候特征进行了分析,并探讨了初霜冻出现前２４小时的环流形势特征和天气演变过程,给出了初霜冻的时空分布特征以及对预报有用的一些判据。对实时预报业务有参考作用。     

利用树木年轮重建柴达木地区5～6月地温

依据青海海西德令哈、乌兰的树木年轮资料序列与柴达木地区1962—2001年5～6月份地温资料序列之间较好的同期相关特征，重建了柴达木地区5～6月份地面Ocm温度及地面最高温度千年历史资料序列。运用乘积平均值、误差缩减值等方法对重建方程进行了检验，证明重建序列可信。通过分析发现，在重建的1098年中，有6个主要的冷期和6个主要的暖期，地面0cm温度序列存在12个主要突变期，地面最高温度序列存在15个主要突变期。周期分析表明，地面0cm温度和地面最高温度均存在183年、122年和91年左右的长周期以及6．8年和2～3年的短周期。     

一次暴雨空报的诊断分析

实时天气系统的时空分布、多个物理要素、雷达回波特征都表现出24小时内鄂东地区及武汉单站有暴雨天气发生,结果暴雨空报。为了找到暴雨空报原因,对T213数值预报产品中多个物理要素进行诊断分析。首先根据物理量场分析鄂东地区暴雨是否产生;其次根椐物理量值分析武汉单站有否暴雨。结果表明：鄂东及武汉单站多个物理要素场和值不支持有暴雨产生。如：没有能量锋区、湿度锋区和水汽的辐合支持降水天气系统继续发展和加强,鄂东不会产生区域性暴雨。武汉单站涡度平流反映出低层正值高层负值,这种配置没有动力作用。垂直速度表明在汉口上空整层为下沉气流区,产生不了动力不稳定。单站ra和rf值表现出,前者为正值的水汽辐散;后者为小值。K指数不但没有达到K≥35℃以上,而且表现出逐日递减。这几种要素值都不支持单站次级环流的产生,所以,武汉不会发生暴雨。     

Quasi-3-yr Cycle of Rainy Season Precipitation in Tibet Related to Different Types of ENSO during 1981–2015

The rainy season precipitation in Tibet (RSPT) is a direct cause for local floods/droughts. It also indirectly affects the thermal conditions of the Tibetan Plateau, which can result in anomalous patterns of atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The interannual variability of the RSPT is often linked with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), but the relevant mechanisms are far from being understood, particularly for different types of ENSO events. We investigated the interannual variation of the RSPT in association with different types of ENSO. A quasi-3-yr period of the RSPT (less–more–more precipitation) was significant at the 95% confidence level. A joint multi-taper method with singular value decomposition analysis of the coupled field between the RSPT and the sea surface temperature (SST) revealed that the developing eastern Pacific type El Niño was accompanied by a decrease in the RSPT. The shift from the central Pacific type El Niño to the eastern Pacific La Niña was accompanied by an increase in the RSPT. Weakening of the central Pacific La Niña was accompanied by an increase in the RSPT. Analysis of the mechanism of this coupling, using the same analysis method but other climatic factors, indicated that the gradually strengthening eastern Pacific El Niño can inhibit the Walker circulation, weakening the South Asian summer monsoon, and resulting in transport of less water vapor from the Bay of Bengal to Tibet. The change from the central Pacific El Niño to the eastern Pacific La Niña led to continued strengthening of the Walker circulation with westward movement of the ascending area. This enhanced the South Asian summer monsoon over the Arabian Sea and transported more water vapor to Tibet. The decreasing central Pacific La Niña accompanied by persistent cooling of SSTs in the equatorial Pacific led to a strong eastern North Pacific summer monsoon, causing an anomaly in the easterly transport of water vapor from the Sea of Japan to Tibet and increased RSPT.     

Validation of parameterized convective fluxes with DIAMOD

Summary A diagnostic model (DIAMOD) for the atmosphere over Europe is use at the University of Vienna. Central parameters in each diagnostic column (horizontal resolution 100 km, time resolution 12 hours) are the vertical moisture plus heat flux (the total convective heat fluxh) and the vertical rain flux (r); both are functions of pressure. In this study DIAMOD is applied to validate the output of a forecast model for the simulation of acid deposition (EURAD) which is in use at the University of Cologne. The basic equations of both DIAMOD and EURAD models are summarized with emphasis on the sub-gridscale hydrologic components.First, the nontrivial problem of validating model output versus observations is discussed. Two different validation techniques based upon the budget equations are indentified. The fully prognostic technique compares the forecast of EURAD for the total verification period with the corresponding DIAMOD output. The semiprognostic validation technique involves only one-time-step tendencies. Neither yields an exact correspondence between EURAD and DIAMOD; however, the semiprognostic technique comes somewhat closer to the ideal of an objective validation. The quantities investigated are: The fields, the time tendencies and the fluxesh andr.Second, EURAD is validated versus DIAMOD with both techniques for the EUMAC Joint Wet Case (the Chernobyl episode) in April 1986; the output fields include selected profiles ofh(p) over France (a moist night situation) and over Greece (a dry day situation). The comparison demonstrates for both that the EURAD forecasts are acceptable for ther-fluxes but are relatively poor for theh-fluxes. Reasons for the differences are discussed.With 11 Figures     

南疆沙漠腹地大气边界层气象要素廓线分析

利用塔中80m观测塔梯度系统采集的2006年8月、10月和2007年1月、4月的风、温度、湿度资料,结合气象站的同步气象资料,对南疆沙漠腹地近地层四季的晴天平均风速、温度、湿度廓线分布特征进行分析。结果表明,晴天平均风速白天随高度升高增加缓慢,夜间较快,低层风速白天比夜间大,高层则白天比夜间小,春夏季风速较大;四季平均温度廓线表现为夜间辐射型、早上过渡型、白天日射型和傍晚过渡型等四种类型,早、晚过渡时间四季各有不同,日最低、最高温度出现时间四季则相差不大;冬季夜间比湿随高度升高而增大,整个80m近地层表现为逆湿状态,其他季节逆湿一般出现在0．5—1m、1～2m、32—47m、63—80m等4个层次上,各逆湿层出现的时间各季节有所差异。     

Operational climate prediction in the era of big data in China: Reviews and prospects

Big data has emerged as the next technological revolution in IT industry after cloud computing and the Internet of Things. With the development of climate observing systems, particularly satellite meteorological observation and high-resolution climate models, and the rapid growth in the volume of climate data, climate prediction is now entering the era of big data. The application of big data will provide new ideas and methods for the continuous development of climate prediction. The rapid integration, cloud storage, cloud computing, and full-sample analysis of massive climate data makes it possible to understand climate states and their evolution more objectively, thus predicting the future climate more accurately. This paper describes the application status of big data in operational climate prediction in China; it analyzes the key big data technologies, discusses the future development of climate prediction operations from the perspective of big data, speculates on the prospects for applying climatic big data in cloud computing and data assimilation, and puts forward the notion of big data-based super-ensemble climate prediction methods and computerbased deep learning climate prediction methods.     

驻马店极端气温分析

利用驻马店10个站气象资料,分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6-8月降水量之间的关系和极端晴热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子,确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。     

Mitigation of lunar dust adhesion by surface modification

Dust has been recognized as one of the greatest hazards in continued lunar exploration due to its tenacious adhesion to everything with which it comes into contact. Unfortunately, there is little known about the mechanisms of adhesion on widely varying surface types: van der Waals and electrostatic forces are the dominant forces under consideration here. Surface energy, roughness, mechanical properties and electronic properties are all known to contribute to the adhesion characteristics. An optimal solution to mitigate dust adhesion would be to identify the dominant components of the adhesive force and to reduce that force by surface modification. In this study, an ion beam process was used to modify (treat) the surfaces of three dramatically different materials spanning the range of conductor (black Kapton), semiconductor (silicon), and insulator (quartz). Adhesive forces between less than JSC-1 lunar simulants and these virgin/treated surfaces were measured in vacuum using a centrifugal force detachment method. We found that JSC-1 particles adhered less to treated silicon and quartz surfaces, correlated with a reduction in van der Waals force due to a reduced surface energy. The large reduction in adhesion for treated black Kapton is mainly due to the large decrease in the electrostatic (image) force that results from reduced contact charging. Materials in space and on the lunar surface will be directly exposed to high-energy ultraviolet radiation prior to being covered by dust, so the UV irradiation effects on surface adhesion were also examined. Both virgin and treated quartz surfaces are most affected by the UV-irradiation, showing dramatically increased adhesion.     

米波太阳射电频谱仪的科学目标和技术方案

介绍了70～700MHz低频太阳射电频谱仪的科学目标和技术方案,给出了11m 网状抛物面天线、接收系统、数字频谱终端的技术指标.并对系统的整机噪声系数、灵敏度、最小可测流量密度、LNA输入端的噪声功率进行了估计.系统频谱分辨率优于0.2MHz,时间分辨率最高可达2 ms.