Hindcasting global temperature by evolutionary computation

Interpretation of changes of global temperature is important for our understanding of the climate system and for our confidence in projections for the future. Massive efforts have been devoted to improve the accuracy of reproducing the global temperature by the available climate models, but the hindcasts are still inaccurate. Notwithstanding the need to further advance climate models, one may consider data-driven approaches, providing practically useful results in a simpler and faster way. Without assuming any prior knowledge about physics and without imposing a model structure that encapsulates the existing knowledge about the underlying processes, we hindcast global temperature by automatically identified evolutionary computation models. We use 60 years of records of global temperature and climate drivers, with training and testing periods being 1950–1999 and 2000–2009, respectively. This paper demonstrates that the global temperature observed in the past is mimicked with reasonably good accuracy. Evolutionary computation holds promise for modeling the global climate system, which looks hopelessly complex in classical perspective.     

Estimation of the third and fourth order central moments of measurement errors from sums of powers of least squares adjustment residuals

Summary In the paper a method of determination of estimators of the central moments of the third and fourth order on the basis of the least squares adjustment is presented. These estimators concern the moments of the observation results as well as to readjustment (better) of observation sets with application of methods that take into consideration moments of higher order (not only the variance-covariance matrix).The obtained estimators are not biased, but their effectiveness was not studied. That is why the presented theory is not completed (in the sense of the estimators properties).     

On similarity in the atmospheric boundary layer

A similarity theory for the atmospheric boundary layer is presented. The Monin-Obukhov similarity theory for the surface layer is a particular case of this new theory, for the case of z 0. Universal functions which are in agreement with empirical data are obtained for the stable and convective regimes.On leave from Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw Technical University, 00653 Warsaw, Poland. Present address, Department of Geological and Geophysical Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI 53201 U.S.A.     

Flow of metals into the global atmosphere

Concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb, ²²⁶Ra, U, V, Pb, Cd and Hg have been measured in firn and ice deposited during the past three decades in accumulation zones of glaciers and also in pre-industrial glacier ice collected in Spitsbergen, Northern Norway, Alaska, Southern Norway, Alps, Himalayas, Ruwenzori, Peruvian Andes, and at King George Island in Antarctica. Except for Hg, the geographical distribution of mean concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, U and stable heavy metals in contemporary ice is not uniform, with the lowest concentrations found in Northern Norway, Alaska and Antarctica, and the highest in continental locations at equatorial and middle latitudes. We did not find evidence of changes in rate of metal deposition during the last three decades, as compared with pre-industrial period, however, our samples of pre-industrial ice might be contaminated in part by contemporary fallout migrating from the exposed surface of old parts of glaciers into the deeper ice layers. Using the data on annual injections of ¹³⁷Cs into the global atmosphere and mean global concentrations of radionuclides and heavy metals found in contemporary ice the global annual flows of ²²⁶Ra, ²¹⁰Pb, U,V, Pb, Cd and Hg were estimated as 6.6 kCi, 485 kCi, 12kt, 4870kt, 590 kt, 180 kt and 190 kt, respectively. These estimates are 1–2 orders of magnitude higher than estimates based on primary paniculate emissions. The anthropogenic contribution is a small fraction of the flows, which are dominated by natural processes leading to enrichment of metals in airborne dust.     

Structural integrity of cracks in the head of Washington on Mount Rushmore

Summary Preliminary studies of the stability of Mt Rushmore shows a tendency for permanent crack deformation resulting from seasonal opening and closing of cracks in the structure.