A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for a size-resolved aerosol model: Implementation and application for particulate matter and gaseous pollutant forecasts across China

A three-dimensional variational(3DVAR) data assimilation(DA) system is presented here based on a size-resolved sectional aerosol model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry(MOSAIC) within the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to Chemistry(WRF-Chem) model. The use of this approach means that both gaseous pollutants such as SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 as well as particulate matter(PM_(2.5), PM_(10)) observational data can be assimilated simultaneously.Two one-month parallel simulation experiments were conducted, one with the assimilation of surface hourly concentration observations of the above six pollutants released by the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre(CNEMC) and one without assimilation in order to verify the impact of assimilation on initial chemical fields and subsequent forecasts. Results show that, in the first place, use of the DA system can provide a more accurate model initial field. The root-mean-square error of PM_(2.5), PM_(10), SO_2, NO_2, CO, and O_3 mass concentrations in analysis field fell by 29.27 μg m~(-3)(53.5%), 34.5 μg m~(-3)(50.9%),30.36 μg m~(-3)(64.2%), 8.91 μg m~(-3)(39.5%), 0.46 mg m~(-3)(47.4%), and 15.11 μg m~(-3)(51.0%), respectively, compared to a background field without assimilation. At the same time, mean fraction error was reduced by 42.6%, 53.1%, 45.2%, 43.1%,69.9%, and 48.8%, respectively, while the correlation coefficient increased by 0.51, 0.55, 0.48, 0.38, 0.47, 0.65, respectively.Secondly, the results of this analysis reveal variable benefits from assimilation on different pollutants. DA significantly improves PM_(2.5), PM_(10), and CO forecasts leading to positive effects that last more than 48 h. The positive effects of DA on SO_2 and O_3 forecasts last up to 8 h but that remains relatively poor for NO_2 forecasts. Thirdly, the influence of assimilation varies in different areas. It is possible that the positive effects of DA on PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) forecasts can last more than 48 h across most regions of China. Indeed, DA significantly improves SO_2 forecasts within 48 h over north China, and much longer CO assimilation benefits(48 h) are found in most regions apart from north and east China and across the Sichuan Basin. DA is able to improve O_3 forecasts within 48 h across China with the exception of southwest and northwest regions and the O_3 DA benefits in southern China are more evident, while from a spatial distribution perspective, NO_2 DA benefits remain relatively poor.     

基于稳定性同位素的普里兹湾南极大磷虾不同发育阶段食性转变分析

As one of the most common and dominant species in the Southern Ocean, Antarctic krill(Euphausia superba)play a significant role in food web structure and the process of energy flow. The diet of Antarctic krill in the Prydz Bay during austral summer of 2012/2013 was investigated and the ontogenetic shift in krill diet was evaluated using the stable isotope method. The nitrogen stable isotope values(δ~(15) N) of adults((2.78±0.58)‰) were much higher than those of juveniles((1.69±0.70)‰), whereas the carbon stable isotope values(δ~(13) C) of adults(–(28.26±1.08)‰) were slightly lower than those of juveniles(–(27.48±1.35)‰). Particulate organic matter(POM)from 0, 25, and 50 m depth combined(0/25/50 m) represented phytoplankton food items. The results showed that phytoplankton food items in surface water and mesozooplankton were two essential food items for Antarctic krill in the Prydz Bay during summer. POM(0/25/50 m) contributes 56%–69% and 26%–34% to the diet of juvenile and adult krill, respectively, whereas mesozooplankton composes 13%–34% and 58%–71% of the diet of juvenile and adult krill, respectively. Thus, an ontogenetic diet shift from POM(0/25/50 m), which consists mainly of phytoplankton, to a higher trophic level diet containing mesozooplankton, was detected. The capacity for adults to consume more zooplankton food items may minimize their food competition with juveniles, which rely mostly on phytoplankton food items. This suggests "diet shift with ontogeny" which may somehow help krill keep their dietary energy budget balanced and well adapted to the Antarctic marine ecosystem as a dominant species.     

高温加速度传感器关键技术研究

为了满足深井和核电站强震动观测需求,研制一种能在100℃ 130℃环境下有效连续工作的力平衡反馈加速度计,并重新设计其电路方案,主要利用高温分立元件重新设计检波及前后级放大电路,并对其余电路进行升级改造.样机实验结果表明:设计方案满足要求,具有一定的实用性.     

Modeling urban land use conversion of Daqing City,China: a comparative analysis of “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches

During the past decades, Daqing City, China has experienced unprecedented urban expansion due to the rapid development of petroleum industry. With rapid urbanization and lack of strategic planning, Daqing is facing many socio-economic and environmental problems, and it is essential to examine the process of urbanization, and to develop policy recommendations for sustainable development. To address this problem, this paper examined the urbanization process of Daqing City through developing two multi-level models: an integrated system dynamic (SD) and CLUE-S model (SD-CLUES), and an integrated SD and stochastic cellular automata model (SD-CA). Analysis of results suggests that these two models generate significantly different results. With the SD-CLUES model, new urban developments are clustered in the downtown area or along major transportation networks, indicating exogenous driving forces playing an important role in shaping urban spatial dynamics. With the SD-CA model, on the contrary, the resultant new urban cells are spread over the entire study area, and associated with existing urban areas. Further, visual comparisons and validations indicate that the SD-CA model is a better alternative in explaining the urbanization mechanism of Daqing City. In addition, analysis of results suggests that the stochastic factor in the CA model has significant impact on the modeling accuracy.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

煤层底板破坏流固耦合数值模拟

根据煤层底板含水层具有不均一性的特点,建立了底板含水层非均布水压力学模型和流固耦合模型,并根据"下三带"理论和弹塑性理论求得了底板保护带突水极限压力的弹性解和塑性解。利用FLAC3D软件对工作面采动底板进行了流固耦合数值模拟,并对煤层采动底板的应力破坏特征以及渗流特征进行了研究。综合采用理论计算和数值模拟的方法对煤层底板进行了突水预测。研究表明:非均布水压模型更符合工程实际,数值模拟方法可以快捷、准确的对煤层底板突水进行预测,对水害防治具有重要意义。      

Prior wind field induced hydrodynamics and its influence on cyanobacterial bloom in northem bays of Lake Taihu, China

为明确前期风场对太湖北部湖湾水动力及蓝藻水华分布的影响,对2008年9月梅粱湾及贡湖湾水文、水质及气象开展了同步观测,结果表明:受前期东北风影响,梅梁湾及贡湖湾表层、中层及底层湖流流向均顺风向自湾内流向湾外,两个湖湾均不存在补偿流.表层湖流对风场变化响应敏感,而中场及底层流场对风场变化响应存在显著滞时.在偏南风作用下,梅梁湾表层湖流能快速形成顺时针环流.在偏西风作用下,贡湖湾表层湖流流向虽未发生偏转,但是湖流流速显著减小并导致流速沿水体垂向呈递增分布.观测期间水动力强度对太湖北部湖区叶绿素a浓度垂向分层及蓝藻水华水平漂移均具有重要影响.在水动力滞缓水域,蓝藻水华易在水表发生漂移堆积.在水动力强度较大水域,强烈的垂向混合作用能使蓝藻沿水深方向混合均匀,降低水华暴发风险.相对于水动力条件,营养盐对叶绿素a浓度空间分布的影响较弱.     

基于本体的网络地理空间数据集成

 随着地理数据深度、广度和复杂度的不断增加,如何集成这些在结构、语法及语义上高度异质性的需求越来越迫切。尽管XML在一定程度上解决了结构异质性问题,OGC标准规范解决了语法异质性问题,但语义异质性问题仍然成为分布式环境下地理空间数据集成与互操作的最大障碍。本文提出了一种基于本体的网络地理空间数据集成方法:以本体思想对数据进行语义组织;结合OGC网络服务标准规范对数据进行服务语义发布;利用支持双向映射的混合本体模式来解决全局本体与各应用本体之间的冲突,实现数据的语义集成。通过海洋海岸带土地利用数据集成试验表明,本文方法不仅能够克服数据间语义异质性问题,并在很大程度上屏蔽了数据底层集成的复杂环节,使得数据集成过程简单、高效。