Quantifying geographic variations in associations between alcohol distribution and violence: a comparison of geographically weighted regression and spatially varying coefficient models

Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence. These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location, an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically, we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches.     

Prediction of surface horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes caused by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir

 Horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes induced by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir are modeled using elastic loading Green functions. When the water surface reaches its highest level, the effects become maximum on the reservoir banks. The longitudinal and latitudinal components of the horizontal displacements reach −8.2 and 7.7 mm respectively, gravity is increased by up to 3.4 mGal, and the prime vertical and meridian components of the tilt changes are −7.8 and −17.5 arcseconds respectively. Accordingly, the filling of the reservoir will influence values observed from global positioning system (GPS), gravimetry and tilt measurements in the area. The results given can be used to provide important corrections for extracting earthquake-related signals from observed data. Received: 19 January 2001 / Accepted: 3 September 2001     

回溯时间积分格式的有效性研究

采月正压准地转模式作为动力核,用Rossby-Haurwitz波函数作为理想场,同时使用回溯时间积分格式和普通中央差格式进行数值试验.结果表明,在短时积分的情况下,回溯格式能减小数值解误差1～2个量级,而且它对时间步长的增大不敏感.因此使用回溯格式可以减少积分计算量,延长积分时效.     

江苏省夏季气温异常的海气背景

通过1961－1998年江苏省11个站点夏季（6－8月）平均气温的EOF分析，探讨江苏省夏温异常的时空分布结构，并在此基础上，分析其前期及同期500hPa高度距平场、海温距平场的特征，得到了一些对本地夏季气温异常预测有意义的结果。     

上海地面沉降模型研究及存在问题

文章主要对当今国内外地面沉降模型研究进展进行了简要的回顾和总结。针对上海地面沉降现象，就准三维水流－一维耦俣沉降模型中存在的科学问题进行了阐述，并就模型的下一步研究提出了科学的目标。     

Discovery of Radiolarian Fossils from the Aiketik Group at the Western End of the South Tianshan Mountains of Chinaand Its Implications

The Aiketik Group, distributed at the western end of the South Tianshan Mountains, China, is an important lithostratigraphic unit involved in the South Tianshan orogen. It is separated from the adjacent rocks by faults. Generally, the geologists ascribed it to the Upper Carboniferous according to Pseudostaffella sp., Profusulinella sp. and Fusulinella sp. found from the limestone and sandy limestone of Aiketik. Our radiolarian fossils were obtained from the chert samples collected from the Haladaok section located at the upper Tuoshihan River. The fossils mainly include Albaillella undulata Deflandre, Albaillella paradoxa Deflandre, Albaillella sp. aff. A. paradoxa Deflandre, Albaillella sp. cf. A. deflandrei Gourmelon, Albaillella sp., Albaillella excelsa Ishiga, Kito and Imoto (?), Belowea variabilis (Ormiston et Lane), Callella cf. C. parvispinosa Won, Entactinia cf. E. tortispina Ormiston et Lane, Entactinia aff. E. tortispina Ormiston et Lane, Entactinia variospina Won, Entactinia sp., Eostylodicty     

塔里木盆地晚泥盆世及石炭纪岩相古地理

塔里木盆地上泥盆统及石炭系包括5个组，自下而上分别为上泥盆统东河塘组和甘木里克组，石炭系巴楚组、卡拉沙依组和小海子组。其中东河塘组和甘木里克组地质时代为晚泥盆世，巴楚组地质时代为早石炭世杜内早中期，卡拉沙依组地质时代为晚杜内中期至巴什基尔期，小海子组地层时代为巴什基尔末期至莫斯科早期。岩石类型有碎屑岩和碳酸盐岩，还有膏盐岩，并夹薄层火山碎屑岩。沉积相主要为海陆过渡相组合，包括河流、三角洲、滨岸、浅海、碳酸盐岩台地、台地边缘6种相和12种亚相及33种微相。晚泥盆世东河塘期至石炭纪发生过4次较大的海侵，海侵范围由下而上逐渐增大，至晚石炭世小海子期海侵规模最大。东河塘期开始海侵，海水由西而东侵入，此时周缘碎屑物质供应充分，主要为无障壁海岸和障壁海岸沉积，西南缘为浅海相沉积。巴楚期晚期，海侵范围进一步扩大，物源向北或北东方向退却，陆源碎屑物质注入急剧减少，形成了一套富含生屑的碳酸盐岩地层，发育了开阔台地和局限台地亚相沉积。卡拉沙依期中期海侵规模比巴楚期更大，海水深度加大，西部为开阔台地亚相沉积，其余地区为局限台地亚相沉积。卡拉沙依期晚期和小海子期海侵达最大，向东扩展，大部分地区为开阔台地亚相沉积，东部地区为局限台地亚相沉积，塔北大部分地区缺失。     

西昌锦屏地区的旅游地质资源

作为一种新兴的旅游形式，地质旅游因以地质考察与旅游活动的有机结合而达到追求返璞归真与休闲猎奇的目的。本文重点介绍了西昌锦屏地区的几处自然景点和地质旅游路线。该地区的自然、地质景观极具开发潜力。     

Maximum-likelihood ambiguity resolution based on Bayesian principle

 Based on the Bayesian principle and the fact that GPS carrier-phase ambiguities are integers, the posterior distribution of the ambiguities and the position parameters is derived. This is then used to derive the maximum posterior likelihood solution of the ambiguities. The accuracy of the integer ambiguity solution and the position parameters is also studied according to the posterior distribution. It is found that the accuracy of the integer solution depends not only on the variance of the corresponding float ambiguity solution but also on its values. Received: 27 July 1999 / Accepted: 22 November 2000     

1998年夏季500hPa行星尺度环流系统对长江流域“二度梅”的影响

利用NCEP／NCAR1998年5－8月逐日500hPa高度场再分析资料及中国国家气象中心整编的同时段全国160站降水资料，就1998年夏季500hPa行星尺度环流系统对长江流域“二度梅”的影响进行了深入研究。结果发现，鄂霍次克海附近阻塞高压加强（减弱）和副热带西太平洋高压西部强度减弱（加强）的反位相变化是造成长江中下游和东北大部分地区的降水增加（减少）的重要原因。