中国夏季降水的组合统计降尺度模型预测研究

现阶段的动力气候模式尚不能满足东亚区域气候预测的实际需求,这就需要动力和统计相结合的方法,将动力模式中具有较高预测技巧的大尺度环流信息应用到降水等气象要素的统计预测模型当中,以改善后者预测效果。本文中所介绍的组合统计降尺度模型,可将动力气候模式预测的大尺度环流变量和前期观测的外强迫信号作为预测因子来预测中国夏季降水异常。交叉检验结果显示,组合统计降尺度预测模型的距平相关系数较原始模式结果有较大提高。在实时夏季降水预测中,2013～2018年平均的预测技巧相对较高,趋势异常综合检验（PS）评分平均为71.5分,特别是2015～2018年平均的PS评分预测技巧达到72.7分,总体上高于业务模式原始预测和业务发布预测的技巧。该组合统计降尺度模型预测性能稳定,为我国季节预测业务提供了一种有效参考。     

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Thermal Stress to China’s Coral Reefs in South China Sea

Coral bleaching, caused by elevated sea surface temperature(SST), is occurring more frequently and seriously worldwide. Due to the lack of field observations, we understand little about the large-scale variability of thermal stress in the South China Sea(SCS) and its effect on China’s coral reefs. This paper used 4-km high resolution gap-filled SST(Filled SST) data and thermal stress data related to coral bleaching derived from Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database(Co RTAD) to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of chronic thermal stress and acute thermal stress to China’s coral reefs in SCS from 1982 to 2009. We analyzed the trend of SST in summer and the thermal stress frequency, intensity and duration during this period. The results indicate that, as a chronic thermal stress, summer mean SST in SCS shows an average upward trend of 0.2℃/decade and the spatial pattern is heterogeneous. Waters of Xisha Islands and Dongsha Islands of the northern SCS are warming faster through time compared to Zhongsha Islands and Nansha Islands sea areas of the southern SCS. High frequency bleaching related thermal stress events for these reefs are seen in the area to the northwest of Luzon Island. Severe anomaly thermal stress events are more likely to occur during the subsequent year of the El Nino year for these coral reefs. Besides, the duration of thermal stress varies considerably by anomaly year and by region.     

云南岩子脚金矿床黄铁矿特征与金矿化的关系

对岩子脚金矿床黄铁矿矿物学、化学成分与金矿化关系的研究表明:早中期形成的黄铁矿颜色较深,颗粒较粗,金矿化较好;而晚期形成的黄铁矿粒径较小,不含金。总趋势是粒度愈粗含金量愈高。含金黄铁矿表现为S亏损、As偏高。     

IBIS-L系统与TM30全站仪在边坡变形监测中的对比分析

使用IBIS-L系统对大型水电站边坡长时间的监测数据进行分析和处理,并与TM30全站仪进行变形监测精度对比。试验表明,IBIS系统可得到在雷达视线方向优于mm级精度的形变结果,优于TM30全站仪,可以实现高分辨率、高精度、实时的大型水电站边坡长时间变形监测。     

深水浊流形成过程的水动力学模拟:以南海北部琼东南盆地浊流形成过程为例

Turbidity currents represent a major agent for sediment transport in lakes, seas and oceans. In particu-lar, they formulate the most significant clastic accumulations in the deep sea, which become many of the world＇s most important hydrocarbon reservoirs. Several boreholes in the Qiongdongnan Basin, the north-western South China Sea, have recently revealed turbidity current deposits as significant hydrocarbon res-ervoirs. However, there are some arguments for the potential provenances. To solve this problem, it is es-sential to delineate their sedimentary processes as well as to evaluate their qualities as reservoir. Numerical simulations have been developed rapidly over the last several years, offering insights into turbidity current behaviors, as geologically significant turbidity currents are difficult to directly investigate due to their large scale and often destructive nature. Combined with the interpretation of the turbidity system based on high-resolution 3D seismic data, the paleotophography is acquired via a back-stripping seismic profile integrated with a borehole, i.e., Well A, in the western Qiongdongnan Basin; then a numerical model is built on the basis of this back-stripped profile. After defining the various turbidity current initial boundary conditions, includ-ing grain size, velocity and sediment concentration, the structures and behaviors of turbidity currents are investigated via numerical simulation software ANSYS FLUENT. Finally, the simulated turbidity deposits are compared with the interpreted sedimentary bodies based on 3D seismic data and the potential provenances of the revealed turbidites by Well A are discussed in details. The simulation results indicate that a sedimen-tary body develops far away from its source with an average grain size of 0.1 mm, i.e., sand-size sediment. Taking into account the location and orientation of the simulated seismic line, the consistence between normal forward simulation results and the revealed cores in Well A indicates that the turbidites should ha     

南海北部古俯冲带的位置及其对南海扩张的控制

为了确定南海北部古俯冲带的具体位置,作者利用美国LCT综合反演软件对收集到的重磁数据进行处理解释,结果显示在南海北部从台湾西南部到一统暗沙隆起,即沿南海海盆北部陆坡为一条布格重力异常水平梯度峰值带,指示了古俯冲带的具体位置;其北部的高磁异常代表了与之对应的古火山弧。深反射地震资料也验证了南海北部陆坡位置存在古俯冲带,钻井资料显示俯冲带存在的时代为晚侏罗世到早白垩世。据此绘制了南海地区晚中生代到现今的构造古地理演化图,指出南海的扩张应与晚中生代俯冲带这个先存的软弱带有关,南海海盆正是从古俯冲带的位置开始扩张。     

轻小型航空遥感系统集成检校试验与分析

本文对高精度轻小型航空遥感系统地对地检校场试验进行了分析,详细介绍集成系统检校原理,简要给出外业实验情况以及内业数据处理的过程,重点给出利用POS获取姿态转换得到的影像外方位元素即直接地理定位、单片后交方法获取外方位元素以及直接利用控制点绝对定向,均匀采集检校场外业检查点,进行精度验证的比较结果。最终实现塔吊模拟飞行条件下高精度的直接地理定位。     

宁夏固原地区土壤地球化学背景值分析

土壤背景值反映了一定范围内自然环境与人类活动作用下元素指标含量的本底值。依据宁夏固原地区1∶25 万土地质量地球化学调查取得的2 638件土壤样品,利用遍历循环迭代剔除和统计分析方法,得到了研究区表层土壤中53项元素的地球化学背景值和特征参数。通过与中国表层土壤丰度对比,发现研究区Cd、S含量明显高于全国表层土壤丰度,但处于安全限值内; 不同地貌类型下的元素含量差异不仅受成土母质、成壤环境等外部自然条件的影响,也反映了人类活动对土壤环境的扰动。研究可为农业可持续开发与合理利用提供较为可靠的数据支撑。     

科尔沁沙地退化植被恢复过程中碳氮化学计量特征的变化

为研究沙地退化植被恢复过程中碳氮化学计量特征的变化,分别于2011年、2013年和2015年8月中旬对流动、半固定、固定沙丘和草地进行植被调查,并测定植被—土壤系统的碳氮化学计量特征。结果表明：（1） 随着沙地退化植被的恢复,地上植物、凋落物和根系的C、N含量及C/N比波动变化,土壤（0～10 cm）C和N含量及C/N比显著增加（P <0.05）。（2）沙地4种生境上的地上植物、凋落物、根系、土壤的C、N含量及C/N比年际间变化显著（P <0.05）。（3） 沙地退化植被恢复过程中地上植物、凋落物、土壤的C/N比与物种丰富度呈正线性关系（P <0.01）。沙地退化植被恢复过程中优势植物演替导致植被—土壤系统中C、N化学计量特征的变化,植被恢复过程中植物的氮素利用效率也在逐渐增强,而封育时间的增加能够促进沙地土壤中N的积累。     

大尺度电离层行扰的GPS观测

利用日本境内的高空间分辨率的双频GPS台站资料,观测研究了发生于2000年7月中旬太阳强活动期间的一次大尺度电离层行扰. 结果表明:在7月15日11:00UT-1:00UT期间观测区域的电离层中出现了大尺度电离层行扰. 在15:00UT之前,扰动周期为2h左右,在15:00UT以后,扰动周期为1h左右;总电子含量扰动幅度的变化范围约为1-2TECU;通过对15:00-17:00UT之间总电子含量扰动曲线同相位点的分析,发现这期间的电离层行扰的扰动速度约为600-700m/s,扰动波长在2200km左右,扰动传播的方向几乎沿着经线从高纬向低纬传播. 该行扰与此次强太阳活动有直接的关系,因其发生在7月15日的磁暴急始之前数小时,因此与磁暴本身没有因果关系,应与磁暴之前先期到达地球空间的高能质子流有关.