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831.
Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 677–680, October–December, 1995.  相似文献   
832.
 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   
833.
The analyses of X-ray emission from classical novae during the outburst stage have shown that the soft X-ray emission below 1 keV, which is thought to originate from the photosphere of the white dwarf, is inconsistent with the simple blackbody model of emission. Thus, ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC) archival data of the classical Nova Mus 1983 (GQ Mus) have been re-analysed in order to understand the spectral development in the X-ray wavelengths during the outburst stage. The X-ray spectra are fitted with the hot white dwarf (WD) atmosphere emission models developed for the remnants of classical novae near the Eddington luminosity. The post-outburst X-ray spectra of the remnant white dwarf are examined in the context of evolution on the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram using C–O enhanced atmosphere models. The data obtained in 1991 August (during the ROSAT All Sky Survey) indicate that the effective temperature is         . The 1992 February data show that the white dwarf had reached an effective temperature in the range         with an unabsorbed X-ray flux (i.e. ∼ bolometric flux) between     and     . We show that the H burning at the surface of the WD had most likely ceased at the time of the X-ray observations. Only the 1991 August data show evidence for ongoing H burning.  相似文献   
834.
It has recently been argued that the observed ellipticities of galaxies may be determined at least in part by the primordial tidal gravitational field in which the galaxy formed. Long-range correlations in the tidal field could thus lead to an ellipticity–ellipticity correlation for widely separated galaxies. We present a new model relating ellipticity to angular momentum, which can be calculated in linear theory. We use this model to calculate the angular power spectrum of intrinsic galaxy shape correlations. We show that, for low-redshift galaxy surveys, our model predicts that intrinsic correlations will dominate correlations induced by weak lensing, in good agreement with previous theoretical work and observations. We find that our model produces ' E -mode' correlations enhanced by a factor of 3.5 over B -modes on small scales, making it harder to disentangle intrinsic correlations from those induced by weak gravitational lensing.  相似文献   
835.
836.
837.
We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal.  相似文献   
838.
The distribution of perihelion distances of nearly periodic comets was studied using different assumptions about comet discovery probabilities. It was shown that the concentration of perihelia at small heliocentric distances cannot be explained solely by the influence of visibility conditions.  相似文献   
839.
This paper presents a method that incorporates a non‐associated flow rule into the limit analysis to investigate the influence of the dilatancy angle on the factor of safety for the slope stability analysis. The proposed method retain's the advantage of the upper bound method, which is simple and has no stress involvement in the calculation of the energy dissipation and the factor of safety. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
840.
Why Mt Etna?     
The Etna volcano is located in an apparently anomalous position on the hinge zone of the Apennines subduction and its Na-alkaline geochemistry does not favour a magma source from the deep slab as indicated for the Aeolian K-alkaline magmatism. The steeper dip of the regional foreland monocline at the front of the Apennines in the Ionian Sea than in Sicily, implies a larger rollback of the subduction hinge in the Ionian Sea. Moreover, the lengthening of the Apennines arc needs extension parallel to the arc. Therefore, the larger southeastward subduction rollback of the Ionian lithosphere with respect to the Hyblean plateau in Sicily, should kinematically produce right-lateral transtension and a sort of vertical 'slab window' which might explain (i) the Plio-Pleistocene alkaline magmatism of eastern Sicily (e.g. the Etna volcano) and (ii) the late Pliocene to present right lateral transtensional tectonics and seismicity of eastern Sicily. The area of transfer of different dip and rollback occurs along the inherited Mesozoic passive continental margin between Sicily and the oceanic Ionian Sea, i.e. the Malta escarpment.  相似文献   
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