一种台风过程雨量的相似预报方法

提出一个台风过程雨量的定点、定量预报方法。方法应用台风初始参数、历史过程的天气形势场和物理量场及数值预报产品,构造预报区域内当前时刻至未来时刻环境要素场的多元客观相似判据。通过定义非线性的相似指数,综合评估历史台风样本与预报台风在多元判据下的连续动态相似程度,以此找到相似样本。应用相似样本的历史雨量记录进行相似指数的权重综合,得到台风未来雨量的定点、定量预报值。预报试验表明该方法具有一定的预报技巧。     

The Development of a Nonhydrostatic Global Spectral Model

With the development of numerical weather prediction technology,the traditional global hydrostatic models used in many countries of the world for operational weather forecasting and numerical simulations of general circulation have become more and more unfit for high-impact weather prediction.To address this,it is important to invest in the development of global nonhydrostatic models.Few existing nonhydrostatic global models use consistently the grid finite difference scheme for the primitive equations of dynamical cores,which can subsequently degrade the accuracy of the calculations.A new nonhydrostatic global spectral model,which utilizes the Eulerian spectral method,is developed here from NCAR Community Atmosphere Model 3.0(CAM3.0).Using Janjic's hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic method,a global nonhydrostatic spectral method for the primitive equations has been formulated and developed.In order to retain the integrity of the nonhydrostatic equations,the atmospheric curvature correction and eccentricity correction are considered. In this paper,the Held-Suarez idealized test and an idealized baroclinic wave test are first carried out,which shows that the nonhydrostatic global spectral model has similar climate states to the results of many other global models for long-term idealized integration,as well as better simulation ability for short-term idealized integration.Then,a real case experiment is conducted using the new dynamical core with the full physical parameterizations of subgrid-scale physical processes.The 10-day numerical integration indicates a decrease in systematic error and a better simulation of zonal wind,temperature,and 500-hPa height.     

IMPROVEMENT OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON RANANIM (0414) BY USING DOPPLER RADAR DATA

Typhoon Rananim (0414) has been simulated by using the non-hydrostatic Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) from Center of Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS). The prediction of Rananim has generally been improved with ARPS using the new generation CINRAD Doppler radar data. Numerical experiments with or without using the radar data have shown that model initial fields with the assimilated radar radial velocity data in ARPS can change the wind field at the middle and high levels of the troposphere; fine characteristics of the tropical cyclone (TC) are introduced into the initial wind, the x component of wind speed south of the TC is increased and so is the y component west of it. They lead to improved forecasting of TC tracks for the time after landfall. The field of water vapor mixing ratio, temperature, cloud water mixing ratio and rainwater mixing ratio have also been improved by using radar reflectivity data. The model’s initial response to the introduction of hydrometeors has been increased. It is shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts, by greatly improving the forecasting of TC rainfall, and heavy rainstorm of the TC specially, as well as its distribution and variation with time.     

四种综合脉冲星时算法比较

由单颗脉冲星定义的脉冲星时受多种噪声源的影响,其短期和长期稳定度都不够好.为了削弱这些噪声源对单脉冲星时的影响,可以采取合适的算法对多个单脉冲星时进行综合得到综合脉冲星时,从而提高综合脉冲星时的长期稳定度.文中介绍4种综合脉冲星时算法:经典加权算法、小波分析算法、维纳滤波算法和小波域中的维纳滤波算法,将这4种算法分别应用于Arecibo天文台对两颗毫秒脉冲星PSR B1855+09和PSRB1937+21观测得到的计时残差并作出比较.     

波长色散X射线荧光光谱法测定铜精矿中铜铅锌硫镁砷

采用偏硼酸锂和四硼酸锂混合熔剂熔融法制样,波长色散X射线荧光光谱法测定铜精矿中铜、铅、锌、硫、镁、砷,考察了熔剂、玻璃化试剂和预氧化条件对制样的影响。采用理论α系数和经验系数相结合的方法校正元素间的效应。测定铜精矿试样各组分的相对标准偏差(RSD,n=12)均小于3%,结果与化学分析法吻合。     

云纹石斑鱼仔、稚、幼鱼的形态观察

为丰富云纹石斑鱼(Epinephelus moara)的基础生物学资料,对云纹石斑鱼早期发育阶段的形态变化进行了观察,对各时期的形态特征与生态习性进行了描述,并详细记录了各时期全长、口裂、第2背鳍棘和腹鳍棘的变化.根据卵黄囊和油球的消失、鳍膜的消退、第2背鳍棘和腹鳍棘的伸缩、鳞片的生长及色素的变化把云纹石斑鱼早期发育阶段胚后发育分为仔鱼期(包括早期仔鱼和晚期仔鱼)、稚鱼期和幼鱼期.在水温26.71±1.26℃的培育条件下,仔鱼4日龄开口摄食;至6日龄,卵黄囊和油球消失,进入晚期仔鱼期;至29日龄,鳍膜消失,进入稚鱼期;至41日龄,鳞片开始长出,至59日龄,稚鱼全身覆盖鳞片,完成变态,进入早期幼鱼期.并发现在生态幅范围内提高培育水温,可以提高生长效率,加快育苗速度.     

广东信宜井水位异常分析

针对信宜井水位2018年8月中旬快速下降后又转折上升的异常变化特征,通过实地异常调查和以往的震例总结,建立水位与降雨量关系的多元回归方程,综合分析该井水位异常原因.初步判定水位快速下降后又大幅回升有多个影响因素,一是附近工地抽水与施工爆破可能导致了水位下降;二是水位大幅度回升并不只是由降雨造成,还有别的干扰因素.通过此次信宜井水位异常变化的调查,形成的分析过程和方法,有助于今后此类水位异常的判别.     

钻孔施工对新丰江和平地电台深井地电阻率观测影响的数值模拟

1 观测背景 深井地电阻率观测在消除地表干扰、季节天气变化影响等方面效果良好(刘昌谋等, 1994),是当前地电阻率观测的发展趋势.广东新丰江和平地电台于1992年起开展深孔布极地电阻率观测,并在几次显著地震前观测到明显的异常变化.2015年3—5月,该台地电阻率测值出现显著异常变化,怀疑为测区钻孔施工对电阻率测值的变化起了决定性作用.为深入了解地电阻率变化的异常机理,在现场调查核实的基础上,收集数据资料建立测区电性结构有限元模型,采用数值模拟对异常进行定量分析,探讨钻孔施工对地电阻率观测的影响幅度与规律.     

摇摆-自复位桥墩的多弹簧模型建模方法研究

为探讨摇摆-自复位（Rocking Self-Centering,RSC）桥墩的滞回行为并为其数值建模提供依据,基于OpenSees地震分析平台发展此类结构的多弹簧模型并开展系统性讨论。结合RSC桥墩的构造特点发展多弹簧模型的整体建模思路,着重对比三种弹簧分布（基于Gauss积分和Lobatto积分的分布及均匀分布）模式下RSC桥墩的整体力-位移响应,对弹簧所需设置个数进行优化分析,并讨论了弹簧刚度的校准过程。最后,基于现有研究的5个RSC桥墩试件的试验结果,通过对比滞回曲线,发现所建议的模拟方法可较为准确地模拟RSC桥墩在拟静力荷载下的刚度、强度、滞回行为及残余位移。     

太阳活动周期及其数学描述

概述和分析了太阳活动周期的研究进展,太阳活动呈现非常复杂的周期性,其周期性范围从几天至上百年,11年周期意义比较大,也比较明显;几天至几个月的周期性可能发生在太阳活动高峰期,155天或更短的周期存在,对中期预报有帮助;几年左右的周期对气象学的研究有作用;"蒙德极小期"是否存在至今还没有定论.对太阳活动11年周期的数学描述虽然很多,从效果上看,一般情况下,参数较多的函数计算量很大,误差相对较小;参数少的函数相比参数多的函数误差大,但计算量小;目前还没有一个非常理想的函数.能够对每个活动周都能很好的描述且误差很小.