地下水系统风险分析研究进展

在总结地下水风险研究的基础上,提出了地下水系统风险定义,归纳了地下水系统的特点,分析了地下水系统风险的影响因素,并将其影响因素概括为3类:自然现象不确定性、社会不确定性、人类认知局限性,评述了地下水系统风险分析方法,针对目前地下水系统的风险分析理论和方法研究中存在的不足,建议从拓展地下水风险分析的基本理论和研究方法、选用合适的风险分析方法、风险概率和风险损失相结合以及研究"风险分析的风险"4个方面进一步开展地下水系统风险研究。     

浪潮耦合的舟山渔港台风暴潮数值模拟

建立能精确模拟舟山渔港台风暴潮过程的浪潮耦合模型,对渔港防灾减灾具有重要意义。基于Delft3D中的FLOW和WAVE模块,在二重嵌套网格下建立风暴潮和波浪的耦合模型。以9711号台风Winnie为背景,验证耦合模型的可靠性,结果显示,风速、天文潮潮位、风暴潮潮位和有效波高的计算值与实测值吻合良好。利用风暴潮模型与耦合模型分别计算了舟山海域的风暴潮,分析了波浪对风暴潮潮位的抬升影响,定海和镇海站最大波浪增水分别为23 cm和34 cm,耦合模型的模拟精度要高于风暴潮模型。通过模拟9711号台风期间舟山渔港的风暴潮过程,分析了风暴潮的时空分布特征,并给出了浪潮耦合作用对于风暴潮时空分布的影响。     

贵州主汛期极端降水事件及其环流特征分析

利用贵州地区52个测站1961-2006年历年主汛期(6-8月)逐日降水资料,定义了不同台站的极端降水阈值,统计了贵州近46年主汛期极端降水事件发生的频次,并分析了极端降水的时空分布特征、周期振荡特征以及极端降水事件典型多年、少年的环流特征.结果表明:贵州主汛期极端降水自北向南逐渐增大,极端降水事件存在着明显的年际、年代际变化特征,并存在2.9 a、20 a的周期振荡特征,在贵州主汛期极端降水事件偏多和偏少时期,其环流特征存在着显著的差异.     

基于PMC方法分析北京及邻区地震监测能力

1 研究背景 北京及邻区(39 °—41.5 °N,115 °—118 °E)地震活动背景活跃,政治、经济、文化高度集中,是我国经济社会发展以及减轻地震灾害的重点监视区之一(徐锡伟等,2002;陈颙等,2006).随着北京及邻区地震台网组成的不断完善和台站变更频度的加快,亟待及时动态评估地震监测能力变化,为北京及邻区日...     

模式误差动力特征：模式参数误差和物理过程描绘缺失误差

模式变最初始场误差和模式误差都是制约数值天气预报准确性提高的重要因素,传统数值预报和变分同化均忽略模式误差的影响.随着研究的深入,关于模式误差对数值预报影响的研究显得尤为重要.本文从非线性动力方程出发,推导出在模式存在参数误差和物理过程描绘缺失误差情况下的模式预报误差演变方程及短时间内误差平方均值近似表达式,并利用Li...     

庐枞盆地与A型花岗岩有关的磁铁矿-阳起石-磷灰石矿床——以马口铁矿床为例

庐枞中生代火山岩盆地位于长江中下游断陷带内,地处扬子板块的北缘.庐枞盆地内的火山岩和侵入岩分布广泛,包括龙门院、砖桥、双庙和浮山四组火山岩以及34个侵入岩体.最近在庐枞盆地南部正长岩中发现一种新类型铁矿床——马口铁矿床.本次工作通过详细野外地质和室内研究,系统开展了马口铁矿床矿床地质特征、成矿年代学和成矿流体特征研究.马口铁矿床的矿体沿石英正长斑岩体中构造破碎带产出,产状严格受构造破碎带控制,矿床围岩蚀变晕范围较为局限.矿床的成矿作用可分为碱性长石阶段、磁铁矿阶段、石英-硫化物阶段和碳酸盐阶段,其中磁铁矿阶段是主要成矿阶段,形成与宁芜玢岩型铁矿床相类似磁铁矿-磷灰石-阳起石三矿物组合.矿床中与磁铁矿共生的磷灰石流体包裹体均一温度范围为252.2 ～ 322.6℃,反映其成矿温度略低于典型的玢岩铁矿床.通过赋矿岩体锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年和金云母Ar-Ar方法,确定马口铁矿床的成矿时代为127.3 ±0.8Ma,赋矿岩体的形成时代为129.4±1.4Ma,结合矿床地质特征,可以得出矿区内石英正长斑岩只是提供了赋矿空间,矿床的形成与其无直接成因联系,而可能与黄梅尖A型花岗岩体有关.马口铁矿床是庐枞盆地成矿作用最后阶段的产物,也可能是长江中下游成矿带中最晚一次成矿事件的代表,具有显著的特色.     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE DIFFERENT FEATURES OF TC EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OVER LAND AND OCEAN

The extratropical transitions(ETs)of tropical cyclones(TCs)over China and the ocean east to 150°E are investigated by the use of best-track data and JRA-25 reanalysis spanning 1979-2008.The ET events occurring north of 25°N and in the warm season(from May to October)are extracted from the reanalysis to emphasize the interaction between TC and midlatitude circulation.Statistical analysis shows that 18.5%of the warm-season TCs go through land ETs north of 25°N in the western North Pacific.And 20.5%of the ET events occur over the ocean east of 150°E.Most(62.2%)ET TCs over China gradually die out after ET,but more(70.7%)ocean ET cases have post-ET reintensification.The evolutions in cyclone phase space and the composite fields for land and ocean ETs,as well as the ET cases with and without post-ET reintensification,are further analyzed.It is found that most TCs with ET over China and those without post-ET reintensification evolve along the typical ET phase path as follows:emergence of thermal asymmetry→losing upper-level warm core→losing lower-level cold core→evolving as extratropical cyclone.The TCs undergoing ETs over ocean and those with post-ET reintensification form a high-level cold core before the ET onset.The TCs with land ET have long distance between the landing TC and a high-level trough.That makes the TC maintain more tropical features and isolates the TC flow from the upstream and downstream jets of the midlatitude trough.The structure of circulation leads to weak development of baroclinicity in land ET.On the contrary,shorter distance between ocean TC and high-level trough makes the high-level trough absorb the TC absolutely.Under that baroclinicity-favorable environment,strong cold advection makes the TC lose its high-level warm core before ET onset.The composite fields confirm that the TC with ocean ET has stronger baroclinic features.Generally,the TC at land ET onset is located to the south of the ridge of the subtropical high,which tends to prevent the TCs from interacting with midlatitude circulation.But for the ocean ET,the situation is just the opposite.Similar analyses are also carried out for the TCs with and without post-ET reintensification over both land and ocean east of 150°E.The results further prove that the TC with stronger baroclinic characteristics,especially in the circumstance favorable to its interaction with high-level midlatitude systems,has more opportunity to reintensify as an extratropical cyclone after ET.     

面向全球DEM生产的点云智能滤波与DEM泊松编辑方法

国家全球战略急需全球地理信息资源的支撑,如何利用国产高分辨率卫星影像高效生产全球DEM已经成为我国全球地理信息资源建设工程的重大任务。由于全球地形地表结构的多样性和复杂性,现有依靠单一滤波模型或有限滤波规则的点云滤波方法的可靠性和效率难以保证。为此,本文提出一种可靠、高效、稳健的影像密集匹配点云数据智能滤波与DEM泊松编辑方法,通过顾及弯曲能量的点云自适应滤波及多边界约束的泊松地形编辑方法的设计与实现,构建了点云自适应滤波与定向智能精准编辑软件LINK。通过四川、黑龙江、陕西、海南、重庆测绘地理信息局等多家生产单位,采用覆盖国内外重点区域不同地形地表结构特征的资源三号卫星影像的DSM数据,进行DEM试生产验证。结果证明了本文方法的可靠性和有效性,在DEM生产困难的建筑区、森林和水域等区域,精度和效率优势明显,为全球大规模DEM生产提供了有力支撑。     

辽宁大连地区中-新元古界砂岩盐风化穴的发现及意义

A small honeycomb tafoni was found on the surface of the Meso-Neoproterozoic sandstone in Wafangdian area, Dalian, Liaoning Province. It is located on the surface of the northwest side of the outcrop sandstone layer. On the top surface of the sandstone layer and on the east and south sides, the tafoni was not developed. The whole tafoni is round or oval, with a diameter of 1-5cm and a depth of 1-2cm. Through field observation and comparative analysis, it is determined that it is the salt weathering tafoni. It is formed by the precipitation and crystallization of salt from sea fog in sandstone, which causes the detrital particles on the rock surface to fall off and weathering.     

北京市密云县地热资源开发利用可行性探讨

地热作为一种“热、矿、水”三位一体的清洁新能源和资源,越来越受重视和利用。经过初步调查和可行性研究,密云地区具有地热赋存条件。本文介绍了密云周边地热开发现状,提出了进一步开发利用地热资源的设想。