短时强降水临近预报的思路和方法

使用浙江省69个基准站2006—2015年5—9月以及同期杭州城区58个区域自动站小时降水资料,利用Gamma分布计算浙江省短时强降水的累积概率,同时综合其频率分布,揭示杭州市小时降水强度的分布特征。此外,以杭州市区为例,利用探空资料分析不同量级(≥50 mm·h^-1、30~＜50 mm·h^-1、20~＜30 mm·h^-1、＜20 mm·h^-1)小时雨强出现的环境指标,并基于核密度估计方法提取预报指标。结果表明:杭州城区出现小于等于10 mm·h^-1的降水概率高达98.4%,≥20 mm·h^-1的概率仅0.05%;受杭州湾偏东气流影响,杭州市区发生短时强降水频率相对较高,尤其是余杭区的东部和西北山区;自2008年以来杭州市区每年短时强降水日数为18~28 d,其中大于等于50 mm·h^-1的短时强降水日所占比例高达10%~20% (除2009年和2012年低于10%外);可用于预报杭州市区短时强降水的最佳环境因子依次为整层可降水量、K指数、最佳抬升指数、沙氏指数、925 hPa露点温度和强天气威胁指数;在判断杭州市区短时强降水强度上表现最好的环境因子为整层可降水量,其次是850 hPa垂直速度和925 hPa散度。

     

The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Niña and Warm Arctic

In the first half of winter 2020/21,China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions,with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China.Meanwhile,a moderate La Ni?a event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase,just prior to the 2020/21 winter.In this report,the mid?high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,a strengthened Siberian High,an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough,are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21.At the same time,the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific(La Ni?a)provided an indispensable background,at a hemispheric scale,to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes.In the end,a most recent La Ni?a prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.     

The Impact of Climatic and Environmental Factors on n-Alkanes Indices in Southwestern Tibetan Plateau

n-Alkanes are widely used in paleoenvironmental reconstructions.However,our understanding of changes in the distribution of n-alkanes with climatic and environmental factors remains unclear in arid/semi-arid regions.We sampled 26 surface sediments from three climatic zones across the southwestern Tibetan Plateau to evaluate the sensitivity of chain length distributions of n-alkanes to climatic and environmental parameters.Our observations demonstrate that average chain length (ACL), proportion of aquatic macrophyte (Paq),carbon preference index (CPI) and ratio of the contents of nC27 and nC31 (nC27/nC31) are all sensitive to hydroclimatic conditions.In contrast to commonly-adopted assumptions,the correlations between these indices and hydrological parameters are not always good,which indicates that the interpretation of n-alkane indices is special on the southwestern Tibetan Plateau.These might be related to the vegetation characteristics and seasonality of biological activity,and need to be considered in paleoclimatic reconstruction.The impact of seasonal precipitation on n-alkanes indices was also evaluated.     

焉耆盆地生态需水量研究

焉耆盆地位于我国西北干旱区内陆腹地,为典型的大陆性干旱气候,降水稀少,蒸发强烈.区内水土资源丰富,是巴音郭楞蒙古自治州农牧业的主要基地.随着人口的增加和社会经济的发展,该地区水资源利用和生态环境之间的矛盾越来越突出.论文利用干旱区植被生态需水量计算方法,计算出该地区的农业需水量约为10.11亿m3,园、林地需水量约为2.43亿m3,牧草地及荒草地需水量约为30.00亿m3,博斯腾湖大小湖区的总蒸发及生态需水量约为13.86亿m3.该地区生态需水量共计约为56.40亿m3.通过计算焉耆盆地的生态需水量可为合理分配该区域的水资源提供参考;为生态保护以及水资源可持续利用提供科学依据.     

中国近海主要鱼类种群变动与生活史型的演变

物种为了种族的延续和繁衍,在历史的长河中,通过自然选择形成了适应其生存的一系列生态学特征,即生活史的选择型。具有不同生活史型鱼种的数量变动形式也不同,换言之,种群数量的变动方式是各个种生活史的反映,种群动态与其生活史选择型有着密切关系。 随着海洋渔业的发展,以及人类对海洋渔业资源开发与利用的增强,一些传统经济种类的资源受到严重威胁。有的资源潜力削弱,甚至有的生物种群的再生机制受到破坏,使其资源面临着枯竭的危险。在强大的捕捞压力下,海洋渔业资源的结构发生了很大变化。生命周期长的种类被生命周期短的种类所代替;传统的经济种类被低质的小型种类所代替。渔业组成处于不断变化和演替之中,水域生态系统的结构与功能将会发生变化,生态平衡将遭到破坏。 对各个生物种群来说,上述变化将不同程度地改变它们的生存条件。物种为了延续和生存,通过自然选择对其所处的环境进行适应性调节,因而,种群原有的生态学特征将产生一系列的变化,如生长速度提高、性成熟加快等。在渐变过程中,物种生活史选择方向也将发生变化。研究鱼类种群的变动及其生活史型的演变过程,对科学利用海洋渔业资源和保护物种的多样性,在实践和理论上都具有重要意义。     

Study of chemical forms of phosphorus and their bioavailability in the sediments

Chemical forms of phosphorus in the sediments of the Daya Bay, the Zhujiang River estuary, and the Xiamen Bay are measured with extraction solutions of MgCl2, NaOH, and HCl. Their availabilities to Chlorella sp. and Isochrysis galbana are estimated by using sediments as the sole source of P in the bioassays. The results show that the contents of total phosphorus (TP) in these sediments are 449.3, 650.1 and 643.9 mg/kg, respectively. The contents of non-apatite inorganic P (NAIP) extracted with MgCl2 and NaOH from 3 sediments are 168.8, 146.6 and 118.1 mg/kg,respectively, and account for 18.3%～32.6% of TP. The phosphorus extracted with HCI solution is greater than that extracted with NaOH solution and the lowest extracted P is MgCl2-extractable P. The greatest relative growth rates of Chlorella sp. and Isochrysis galbana cultured with sediments are in the range of 4.3%～26.9%. The increasing biomasses of these algae correspond to NAIP and AAPP (the estimated algal-available particulate P). AAPP accounts for 42.4%～78.2% of NAIP, 21.1%～27.1% of total inorganic P, and 11.8%～20.3% of TP, respectively.     

土钉墙支护设计的非线性有限元法

土钉墙支护是1种经济、安全、可靠的基坑支护型式。采用非线性平面应变有限元方法对土钉墙支护设计进行数值模拟。与传统的极限平衡法相比具有显著优越性。该方法将土钉与岩土介质作为1个系统研究,对十钉支护的作用机理、变形、和土钉墙内的受力进行分析,计算开挖最终阶段的变形量。与工程实例的对比检验,证实该方法的合理性。研究结论对土钉墙支护的设计与施工具有较高的应用价值。     

盐度对日本鳗鲡生长及非特异性免疫酶活性的影响

利用实验生态学和酶学方法,在浙江省海洋水产养殖研究所清江试验场研究了盐度对平均体长为25．1±5．6cm的日本鳗鲡（Anguillajaponica）生长及其血清溶茵酶（LZM）、超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）及碱性磷酸酶（AKP）活性的影响,实验持续60d．实验设置了5个盐度梯度（盐度5、10、15、20、25）和对照组（盐度0）,每梯度设3个平行组,各组盐度和pH值保持一致．日本鳗鲡血清中免疫酶活力指标：碱性磷酸酶、溶茵酶、超氧化物歧化酶在实验的第7天和第14天测定．实验结果表明,盐度5组相对增重率最高（279．78％±28．37％）,其次是盐度10组（278．74％±22．25％）,盐度15、20、25组相对增重率分别为234．39％±21．28％、230．28％±26．31％、228．01％±29．29％．对照组相对增重率为233．20％-4-25．18％,盐度5和10组与对照组差异显著（P〈0．05）,其余各组与对照组差异不显著．第7天和第14天,盐度10组碱性磷酸酶活性最高,分别为225．05U／dm。和251．11U／dm’,其次是盐度5组,分别为221．76U／dm。和236．01U／dm。,显著高于对照组（P〈0．05）．第7天和第14天盐度20、25组溶菌酶活性显著高于对照组（P〈0．01）．超氧化物歧化酶随着盐度的升高呈逐步上升趋势．第14天,盐度20、25纽溶菌酶活性仍保持较高水平,SOD回落至对照组水平,而各组AKP较第7天略有上升．     

Composition and ecological distribution of ichthyoplankton in eastern Beibu Gulf

Surveys were conducted in four seasons in the eastern Beibu Gulf from July 2006 to November 2007,to determine the ichthyoplankton composition,abundance,as well as environmental factors impacted on their spatiotemporal distributions.The fish eggs and larvae were sorted from 303 zooplankton quantitative samples,in which at least 1 order,60 families,31 genera and 61 species of fish eggs and larvae were identified.The species number was highest in summer whereas lowest in winter.With the most abundant fish egg (the average density was 2.41 ind./m 3),spring was the main spawning season,while the greatest mean density of fish larva was 1.35 ind./m 3 in summer.In the whole year around,fish eggs had the trends to aggregate in the nearshore of Guangxi coast,fish larvae were more abundant in the northern water.Relationships between fish eggs and larvae abundance and environmental factors were analyzed by using the Yield-Density model.The spatiotemporal distribution of ichthyoplankton in eastern Beibu Gulf was closely related to the Chl a concentration,and the optimal temperature,salinity and Chl a were 19.4-21.7 C,31.8-33.1 and 1.5-4.8 mg/m 3,respectively.Additionally,the distribution of fish larvae could be effected by ocean currents in summer and autumn.     

一种顾及各向异性的数字水深模型插值方法

提出了一种顾及各向异性的数字水深模型插值方法,通过局部水深信息解析海底地形的微地貌结构特征,构建了顾及距离和方向的水深插值模型。实验证明,所提方法较距离反比例平方加权法能更多地保留地形信息,同时具有更高的插值精度和插值稳定性。