Lateral extrusion along the Altyn Tagh Fault,Qilian Shan (NE Tibet): insight from a 3D crustal budget

The lithospheric strike‐slip Altyn Tagh Fault has accommodated hundreds of kilometres of displacement between the Qaidam and Tarim blocks since its Eocene reactivation. However, the way the deformation is accommodated in the Qilian Shan and further east remains uncertain. Based on 360 km of north‐eastward migration of the relatively rigid Qaidam block along the Altyn Tagh Fault and 3D isovolumetric balancing of the crustal deformation within the Altyn Tagh Fault–Qilian Shan system, we demonstrate that 250 ± 28 km (43.8–49.4%) of N20E directed crustal shortening and an additional ~250–370 km of eastward motion of the Qilian Shan crust must be accounted for by strike‐slip faulting in the Qilian Shan and crustal thickening in the Qinling area, as well as by extension in the adjoining North China block graben systems.     

A two‐dimensional coupled hydromechanical discontinuum model for simulating rock hydraulic fracturing

Within the framework of our discontinuous deformation analysis for rock failure algorithm, this paper presents a two‐dimensional coupled hydromechanical discontinuum model for simulating the rock hydraulic fracturing process. In the proposed approach, based on the generated joint network, the calculation of fluid mechanics is performed first to obtain the seepage pressure near the tips of existing cracks, and then the fluid pressure is treated as linearly distributed loads on corresponding block boundaries. The contribution of the hydraulic pressure to the initiation/propagation of the cracks is considered by adding the components of these blocks into the force matrix of the global equilibrium equation. Finally, failure criteria are applied at the crack tips to determine the occurrence of cracking events. Several verification examples are simulated, and the results show that this newly proposed numerical model can simulate the hydraulic fracturing process correctly and effectively. Although the numerical and experimental verifications focus on one unique preexisting crack, because of the capability of discontinuous deformation analysis in simulating block‐like structures, the proposed approach is capable of modeling rock hydraulic fracturing processes. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

临震前地壳变形不动点现象与机制研究

在综合分析国内外地形变前兆研究现状的基础上,结合汶川8.0级地震前GPS、应变、重力等研究结果,提出临震前震源区域可能出现变形不动点现象。地壳变形过程中的不动点现象是临震前区域应力场进入临界状态的重要标志,是地震潜在危险区域划定的重要依据。借助不动点理论,给出汶川地震前变形不动点集合的演化,结合大区域地震活动空区与远场显著形变异常分布,探讨变形不动点现象发生的动力学背景,验证了汶川地震前地壳变形的不动点现象是大区域应力场有序运动的结果。     

Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using stable isotopes to understand seasonal and interannual dynamics in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation in precipitation

Stable isotopes in precipitation are useful tracers to strengthen understanding of climate change and hydrological processes. In this study, the moisture sources of 190 precipitation events in Beijing were analysed using the Hybrid Single‐particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model, based on which we studied the relation between variations in precipitation δ¹⁸O and dynamics in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation in seasonal and interannual timescales. Categorization of 7 groups of moisture sources was performed, among which oceanic moisture sources presented lower δ¹⁸O in precipitation than continental moisture sources. The results show that seasonal variations of precipitation δ¹⁸O were caused by changes of moisture sources. In summer, moisture from proximal oceans dominated vapour transport to Beijing due to increasing monsoon strength and resulted in a relatively small variation of precipitation δ¹⁸O. At the interannual timescale, the variations of δ¹⁸O in summer precipitation were related to dynamics in oceanic moistures, showing depleted values when the contribution of oceanic moistures, especially the proportion of long‐distance oceanic moisture, was high. Further analysis indicated that changes of oceanic moisture sources were controlled by the strength of summer monsoons. These findings address the complexity of moisture sources in midlatitude monsoon areas and suggest that isotopic signals in precipitation have the potential to deduce changes in moisture sources and atmospheric circulation and can therefore serve for palaeoclimate reconstruction.