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71.
影响预报员应用先进天气预报技术的因素分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
先进的天气预报技术只有被预报员有效应用才能发挥其重要作用。为了促进预报员应用先进技术,有必要对影响预报员应用先进技术的各方面因素进行分析研究并提出对策,以提升气象服务能力和提高气象服务质量。本研究对短时临近预报新技术产品从无到有、预报员对新技术产品从陌生到接纳应用的整个过程进行连续3年的互动式调查评估,以B08FDP技术产品被预报员在北京2008年奥运气象服务中的应用过程为例,采用问卷调查和深度访谈的方式,通过2006年预报员的需求调查,挖掘出先进的预报技术产品要被预报员接纳和应用所面临的3个突出问题,并进行分析研究提出对策建议反馈给气象部门;通过2007和2008年追踪分析B08FDP被预报员逐步接受并应用的情况,揭示出要提高预报员对先进技术的应用,就要深入调查预报员需求并给予满足、有针对性地开展预报员培训教育、建立完善预报员与科研人员互动反馈的常态机制。 相似文献
72.
局地云量变化气候效应的数值模拟 总被引:3,自引:3,他引:3
本文用统计得到的东半球夏季平均云量资料,利用改进的云-辐射计算模式,在三维有限区域模式中模拟局地云量变化的气候效应。模拟结果表明,高原地区和热带辐合带云量变化造成的气候效应都主要表现在青藏高原地区。在低反照率时,高原地区云量减少使该地区地表加热,引起高低空气压系统加强;高反照率时结果相反。热带辐合带云量减少会引起青藏高原地区降温和气压系统减弱。 相似文献
73.
A two-layer primitive equation model is developed in this paper. The capabilities of this model aretested by the use of multiyearly averaged January and July sea surface level pressure fields and windfields which can be diagnosed from the pressure fields. The results show that the ocean surface currentsand undercurrents in the second layer driven by the sea surface wind and the sea surface pressure areclose to the observation. The results are also compared with that of the IAP OGCM and the OSUOGCM. 相似文献
74.
Ralf Döscher Klaus Wyser H. E. Markus Meier Minwei Qian René Redler 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(7-8):1157-1176
The relative importance of regional processes inside the Arctic climate system and the large scale atmospheric circulation for Arctic interannual climate variability has been estimated with the help of a regional Arctic coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere model. The study focuses on sea ice and surface climate during the 1980s and 1990s. Simulations agree reasonably well with observations. Correlations between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index and the summer Arctic sea ice thickness and summer sea ice extent are found. Spread of sea ice extent within an ensemble of model runs can be associated with a surface pressure gradient between the Nordic Seas and the Kara Sea. Trends in the sea ice thickness field are widely significant and can formally be attributed to large scale forcing outside the Arctic model domain. Concerning predictability, results indicate that the variability generated by the external forcing is more important in most regions than the internally generated variability. However, both are in the same order of magnitude. Local areas such as the Northern Greenland coast together with Fram Straits and parts of the Greenland Sea show a strong importance of internally generated variability, which is associated with wind direction variability due to interaction with atmospheric dynamics on the Greenland ice sheet. High predictability of sea ice extent is supported by north-easterly winds from the Arctic Ocean to Scandinavia. 相似文献
75.
Climatic regime shift and decadal anomalous events in China 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
Climatic time series from historical documents and instrumental records from China showed temporal and regional patterns in
the last two to three centuries, including two multidecadal oscillations at quasi-20-year and quasi-70-year timescales revealed
by signal analysis from wavelet transform. Climatic anomalous events on the decadal timescale were identified based on the
two oscillations when their positive (or negative) phases coincide with each other to amplify amplitude. The coldest event
occurred in the decade of 1965–1975 in eastern China, while the periods of 1920–1930, 1940–1950, and 1988–2000 appeared to
be warmer in most parts of China. For the precipitation series in northern China, the dry anomalous event was found in the
late 1920s, while the wet anomalous event occurred in the 1950s. A severe drought in 1927–1929 in northern China coincided
with the anomalous warm and dry decade, caused large-scale famine in nine provinces over northern China. Climatic anomalous
events with a warm-dry or cold-wet association in the physical climate system would potentially cause severe negative impacts
on natural ecosystem in the key vulnerable region over northern China. The spatial pattern of summer rainfall anomalies in
the eastern China monsoon region showed an opposite variations in phase between the Yellow River Valley (North China) and
the mid-low Yangtze River Valley as well as accompanied the shift of the northernmost monsoon boundary. Climatic regime shifts
for different time points in the last 200 years were identified. In North China, transitions from dry to wet periods occurred
around 1800, 1875, and 1940 while the transitions from wet to dry periods appeared around 1840, 1910, and the late 1970s.
The reversal transition in these time points can also be found in the lower Yangtze River. Climatic regime shifts in China
were linked to the interaction of mid- and low latitude atmospheric circulations (the westerly flow and the monsoon flow)
when they cross the Tibetan Plateau in East Asia. 相似文献
76.
Numerical simulations of anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature in china in the summer of 1997 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
1.IntroductionStatisticalstudiesdemonstratedthatinEINinoyearstheprecipitationinsummerintheChangjiangRiverandHuaiheRiverBasinsisprobablyabovethenormalwhileitispossiblybelowthenormalinthenorthernChinaandtheHetao(theGreatBendoftheHuangheRiver)region.ThetemperatureinsummerisusuallylowerthannormalinEastAsia,especiallyinNortheastChina.Therewere6yearswithseverelowtemperaturesince1951,andtheyare1954,1957,1964,1972,1976and1983,whichareallrelatedtotheEINinoyears(seeHuangetal.,1989,1992;Xiangand… 相似文献
77.
78.
一次冬季锋面暴风雪天气过程的斜压边界层特征的观测分析 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
对STORM-FESTIOP17一次冬季锋面暴风雪天气过程的斜压边界层结构演变及特征进行了分析。发现:暖湿空气沿锋面抬升凝结成云,产生降水过程中释放的大量潜热显著增加锋两侧的水平温度差异,产生锋生。与锋生相伴,在锋前产生低空急流和高空急流。当锋生至最强时,锋两侧温差可达20K,锋前低空急流开始减弱,锋后低空急流增强,锋后冷平流开始主导锋两侧的环流系统。该冷平流削弱锋两侧的温度水平梯度,产生锋消作用。对这次锋面斜压对流边界层的湍流特征分析表明:在边界层之上切应力wv明显增大;湍能收支分析表明在边界层之上的风切变产生项很强,即大尺度天气系统有利于斜压对流边界层的发展,边界层内各量充分混合。这次冬季锋面暴风雪天气过程,冷锋前的低空南风急流从墨西哥湾携带来的充足水汽及锋区边界层大气的强斜压性是其产生的关键因子:冷锋过后,大尺度高空急流的作用更有利于对流边界层的充分发展。 相似文献
79.
80.
Yang Wenbo Qian Zhihao Tu Jiulin Zhou Ziyang Yan Qixiang Fang Yong He Chuan 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2022,(2):517-528
Increased attention has been given to ground-borne vibrations induced by railway vehicles and to the effects of these vibrations as they propagate through the ground into nearby buildings.Various studies,mainly based on numerical methods as well as physical modelling,have been carried out to investigate this problem.To study the dynamic response of tunnels and the surrounding soil due to train-induced vibration loads,a centrifuge te st was conducted with a small-scale model in 1 g and 50 g stres... 相似文献