纬向平均的风向改变指数与季节转换

通过定义一个能客观定量描述大气环流四维时空变化的风向改变指数WI,用以研究大气环流的时空演变规律和季节转换。在对纬向平均的WI做了经验正交函数(EOF)分析后,得到了其前四个模态。第一模态揭示的是全年平均的WI空间分布的基态。第二模态反映的是WI场的偏差中呈现准调和变化的部分,热带、副热带、温寒带季风区在该模态中均有明显体现。第三模态反映的是WI场的偏差中呈现非调和变化的部分,该部分揭示了因南北半球海陆分布的差异和因大气、海洋流体的非线性效应,其所造成的从春到秋与从秋到春的季节变化的不对称性以及平流层的二月突变现象。第四模态反映的是全球各层盛行风反向区域从春到夏的北进和从夏到秋南撤的现象。     

2007年梅汛期异常降水的大尺度环流成因分析

为深入理解江淮梅雨持续性强降水的大气演变过程,探讨中期预报技术途径,利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析数据和历史梅雨特征指数等资料,系统地分析了2007年梅汛期异常降水的大尺度环流成因.结果表明:梅汛期,西北太平洋副热带高压稳定和7月中下旬持续偏南,决定了2007年梅汛期降水的时间和地域分布特征.阻塞高压的频繁出现和副热带季风涌的异常强盛为梅雨锋维持和加强提供了有利的动力、热力以及水汽条件;"伊朗型"南亚高压的活动以及东亚上空副热带急流通过高低空耦合动力作用,不仅为持续性暴雨创造了良好的垂直环流结构,也间接抑制了副高北抬.在此研究基础上,归纳出中期预报着眼点,供实际业务预报参考使用.     

重庆10 kV高压输电线路雷击火灾事故分析

针对2007年7月12日重庆华浩冶炼有限公司粉末厂火灾事故,用力学性能分析和剩余磁场测试相结合的方法对该厂火灾发生处的10 kV高压输电线路进行鉴定,并结合雷电天气分析,得出该火灾事故是由雷击10 kV高压输电线路造成。该方法为在没有安装录波器和闪电计数器的情况下,判断输电线路故障是否由于雷击引起提供参考。     

Climate change, land use change, and China’s food security in the twenty-first century: an integrated perspective

Food security in China, the world’s most populous country, has long been a concern because of the challenges of population growth, water shortages, and loss of cropland through urbanization, soil degradation, and climate change. Here, we present an integrated analysis of China’s food demand and supply under IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1, A2, B1, and B2 in 2020, 2050, and 2080, based on official statistics and future development scenarios. Our analysis accounts for future socioeconomic, technological, and resource developments, as well the impact of climate change. We present a covariant relationship between changes in cereal productivity due to climate change and the cereal harvest area required to satisfy China’s food demand. We also estimated the effects of changing harvested areas on the productivity required to satisfy the food demand; of productivity changes due to climate change on the harvest area required to satisfy food demand; and of productivity and land use changes on the population at risk of undernutrition. China could be able to feed herself without disturbing the global food market in the twenty-first century, but whether the government will choose self-sufficiency or increased food imports may depend on the cost of change, which remains unknown.     

Continuous observations of water-soluble ions in PM2.5 at Mount Tai (1534 m a.s.l.) in central-eastern China

Near real-time measurements of PM_2.5 ionic compositions were performed at the summit of the highest mountain in the central-eastern plains in the spring and summer of 2007 in order to characterize aerosol composition and its interaction with clouds. The average concentrations of total water soluble ions were 27.5 and 36.7 μg?m^?3, accounting for 44% and 62% of the PM_2.5 mass concentration in the spring and summer, respectively. A diurnal pattern of SO ₄ ^2- , NH ₄ ⁺ and NO ₃ ^- was observed in both campaigns and attributed to the upslope/downslope transport of air mass and the development of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The average SO₂ oxidation ratio (SOR) in summer was 57% (±27%), more than twice that in spring 24% (±16%); the fine nitrate oxidation ratio (NOR) was comparable in the two seasons (9?±?6% and 11?±?10% in summer and spring, respectively). This result indicates strong summertime production of sulfate aerosol. A principal component analysis shows that short-range and long-range transport of pollution, cloud processing, and crustal source were the main factors affecting the variability of the measured ions (and other trace gases and aerosols) at Mt. Tai. Strong indications of biomass burning were observed in summer. Cloud scavenging rates showed larger variations for different ions and in different cloud events. The elevated concentrations of the water soluble ions at Mt. Tai indicate serious aerosol pollution over the North China plain of eastern China.     

Q矢量在陕南大暴雨天气过程中的分析应用

应用非地转湿Q矢量理论对2007年7月5日的大暴雨过程进行诊断分析,结果表明;500hPa快速东移的小槽,低层700hPa关中横切变、西南急流,地面弱冷锋是此次强降水的主要影响系统;非地转湿Q矢量流场的辐合线南侧与强降水区吻合;近地面850hPa锋生函数场正值区的变化较好地反映了锋面的强度,锋生函数正值区范围与降水区域对应较好;850hPa非地转湿Q矢量散度场辐合区与强降水的产生及强度正相关。     

江苏夏季旱涝环流演变特征分析

利用NCEP/NCAR OLR月资料和北半球500 hPa逐月高度场距平格点资料,讨论江苏夏季旱涝天气气候的环流特征.研究表明:菲律宾以西太平洋暖池区OLR低值区值强弱直接影响江苏夏季降水,OLR值越低,该区辐合越强,则其北部副热带高压偏强,有利于副高的北抬和西伸,使副高北侧的雨带偏东偏北,江苏易偏旱;反之江苏易偏涝.500 hPa在东亚地区南北呈" 、-、 "的纬向分布,中高纬度乌拉尔山和鄂霍茨克海地区夏季500 hPa高度距平场为明显的正距平区,在该地区形成双阻或单阻有利于形势的稳定,使降水持续,江苏夏季降水偏多.     

鄂尔多斯盆地长9油层组石油运聚规律研究

鄂尔多斯盆地长9油层组是一个新发现的含油层。迄今为止,有关长9油层组石油运聚成藏机理尚不清楚,特别是对石油运聚规律缺乏认识。该问题的解决会进一步完善鄂尔多斯盆地中生界延长组石油成藏理论;同时,对长9油层组石油勘探开发具有重要的指导作用。我们对长9油层组石油来源、油气输导体系、油气运移路径和油气运移动力等油气运聚条件特征及其不同地区差异进行了研究,结果表明,长9油层组原油主要来自长7烃源岩,只有在志丹局部地区来自长7和长9烃源岩;长9油层组石油的纵向运移路径是由上向下运移;孔隙型输导体和断层、构造裂隙输导体是长9油层组石油运移的主要输导体;盆地长7油层组普遍存在高过剩压力带,长7与长9油层组之间存在较大的流体压力差,因此长7油层组生成的油气在高过剩压力驱动下可以向下运移,进入储层物性相对好的长9砂体聚集成藏。同时,建立了3种长9油层组油气运聚模式,讨论了长9油层组油气运聚机理     

山阳色河花岗岩地球化学特征和锆石SHRIMP U Pb年代学

山阳色河二长花岗岩出露于泥盆纪地层中,并与泥盆纪地层呈断层接触关系.花岗岩主要由钾长石、斜长石和石英组成,其SiO_2含量介于71%～77%之间、高碱(K_2O+Na_2O＝7.43%～8.50%),低CaO(0.25%～2.81%),为高钾钙碱性花岗岩,A/CNK的平均值为<1.05,属弱过铝质岩石;较强的轻、重稀土元素分馏程度[(La/Yb)_N=4.23],明显的Eu负异常(δEu＝0.511),富集Rb、Th、K、La和Cs等大离子亲石元素,亏损Ba、Nb、Sr、P和Ti元素为特征,属后碰撞花岗岩类.在泥盆纪地层中的花岗岩砾石的岩石地球化学与色河二长花岗岩具有形似性质,高精度的锆石SHRIMPⅡU-Pb定年获得花岗岩与花岗岩砾石形成时代相一致,分别为709±5Ma和700±11Ma.山阳后碰撞花岗岩的发现,标志着新元古代在东秦岭地区表现为造山后伸展拉张阶段,从而为东秦岭造山带从元古代到古生代的构造体制转换提供证据.     

可穿戴调绘记录仪研究

调绘是测绘生产中的重要工序。本文提出的可穿戴调绘记录仪能够实时记录视频、音频信息和GNSS轨迹坐标,并可响应语音命令,播报当前位置要素信息。该系统解决了平板调绘等操作不便的问题,解放了作业人员的双手,最大限度地保留了调绘时看到的信息,不需要质检人员到实地查看,节省了调绘作业的成本。