Model for UV irradiance on arbitrarily oriented surfaces

Summary Erythemal weighted solar UV irradiances, responsible for damage to human skin, need to be known for arbitrarily oriented surfaces, since human skin has various orientations to the sun. A model for determining such irradiances is presented with the results in good agreement with measurements. The model gives spectral or biologically weighted irradiances for any user-defined orientation of a flat receiver and for selectable atmospheric and surface conditions.     

A Simple Parameterisation for Flux Footprint Predictions

Flux footprint functions estimate the location and relative importance of passive scalar sources influencing flux measurements at a given receptor height. These footprint estimates strongly vary in size, depending on receptor height, atmospheric stability, and surface roughness. Reliable footprint calculations from, e.g., Lagrangian stochastic models or large-eddy simulations are computationally expensive and cannot readily be computed for long-term observational programs. To facilitate more accessible footprint estimates, a scaling procedure is introduced for flux footprint functions over a range of stratifications from convective to stable, and receptor heights ranging from near the surface to the middle of the boundary layer. It is shown that, when applying this scaling procedure, footprint estimates collapse to an ensemble of similar curves. A simple parameterisation for the scaled footprint estimates is presented. This parameterisation accounts for the influence of the roughness length on the footprint and allows for a quick but precise algebraic footprint estimation.     

Numerical Studies with a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model Based on Changes in the Roughness Length for Momentum and Heat Over Antarctica

A regional atmospheric climate model is used toexamine the effect of changes in the roughnesslengths of momentum (_z0m) and heat (_z0h)on the structure of the lower atmosphere and on thesurface energy fluxes over Antarctica. Fourexperiments were carried out in which _z0mand/or _z0h were altered with respect to acontrol experiment. The changes consisted of (1) alowering of _z0m from a field aggregated froma vegetation map with an orographic correction basedon the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts _z0m field, to a constant value of10^-3 m; and (2) a lowering of _z0h from a valueequal to _z0m to a constant value of 10^-3 mor a value dependent on the wind speed via a surfacerenewal model. A reduction of _z0m results in theexpected increase in near-surface wind speed. It alsoresults in an increase in the depth of the layer in whichsouth-easterly near-surface winds prevail, and in adecrease in the strength of the large-scale flow overthe continent, in particular in summer. In theescarpment region a decrease of _z0m is foundto result in too high wind speeds. Surface temperatureson average decrease while atmospheric temperaturesincrease, resulting in an increase of near-surfacestatic stability. Changes in roughness lengths donot significantly change the temperature profiles.The surface fluxes, on average found reduced, aremodelled best by using the _z0h based on thesurface renewal method.     

Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Precipitation for the Southern Canadian Cordillera

This paper reconstructs precipitation variability in the southern Canadian Cordillera over the past 3–400 years using dendroclimatologicaltechniques. Fifty-three total ring-width (RW) chronologies, 28 earlywood (EW) and 28 latewood (LW) chronologies were developed from open-grown, low-elevation stands of Pseudotsuga menziesii (Douglas-fir) and Pinusponderosa (ponderosa pine) across the southern Canadian Cordillera. RW, EW and LW chronologies from both species were used to develop 13 annual (prior July to current June) precipitation reconstructions across the region. The reconstructions range in length from 165 to 688 years, pass verification tests and capture 39–64% of the variancein the instrumental record. Coincident, prolonged intervals of dry conditions are estimated for the years: 1717–1732, 1839–1859, 1917–1941 and1968–1979. Shorter dry intervals are identified between 1581–1586, 1626–1630,1641–1653 1701–1708, 1756–1761, 1768–1772, 1793–1800,1868–1875, 1889–1897 and 1985–1989. The historic drought of the 1920–1930s was the longest but not the most intense across this area in the last 300 years. Wet conditions occur in the majority of reconstructions for the years: 1689–1700, 1750–55,1778–1789, 1800–1830, 1880–1890, 1898–1916 and 1942–1960. Thesedata, in conjunction with data from adjacent areas, are used to provide the first maps of decadal precipitation anomalies for the region between 1700 and 1990.     

A Least-squares Approach to Depth Determination from Numerical Horizontal Self-potential Gradients

We have developed a least-squares minimization approach to depth determination of a buried ore deposit from numerical horizontal gradients obtained from self-potential (SP) data using filters of successive window lengths (graticule spacings). The problem of depth determination from SP gradients has been transformed into the problem of finding a solution to a nonlinear equation of the form f(z)=0. Formulas have been derived for vertical and horizontal cylinders and spheres. Procedures are also formulated to estimate the electrical dipole moment and the polarization angle. The method is applied to synthetic data with and without random noise. Finally, the validity of the method is tested on two field examples. In both cases, the depth obtained is found to be in a very good agreement with that obtained from drilling information.     

Estimation of Site Effects in Beijing City

— For the realistic modeling of the seismic ground motion in lateral heterogeneous anelastic media, the database of 3-D geophysical structures for Beijing City has been built up to model the seismic ground motion in the City, caused by the 1976 Tangshan and the 1998 Zhangbei earthquakes. The hybrid method, which combines the modal summation and the finite-difference algorithms, is used in the simulation. The modeling of the seismic ground motion, for both the Tangshan and the Zhangbei earthquakes, shows that the thick Quaternary sedimentary cover amplifies the peak values and increases the duration of the seismic ground motion in the northwestern part of the City. Therefore the thickness of the Quaternary sediments in Beijing City is the key factor controling the local ground effects. Four zones are defined on the base of the different thickness of the Quaternary sediments. The response spectra for each zone are computed, indicating that peak spectral values as high as 0.1 g are compatible with past seismicity and can be well exceeded if an event similar to the 1697 Sanhe-Pinggu occurs.     

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.     

Microseismicity and active deformation of Messinia,SW Greece

By deploying a 30 3-component digital seismic array in the Messiniakos gulf and the surrounding region, we recorded for a period of 45 days the microseismic activity. With a minimum of six records per event, we located 1121 earthquakes corresponding to an average of 20 events per day. For the hypocenter location we used a local velocity model adopted to two controlled source seismic experiments. Within the array, traveltime residuals were within ± 0.2 s and the epicentral accuracy in the order of ± 2 km, while the hypocentral one is twice this value. Correlation of the seismicity with the tectonic elements indicated that most of the NW-SE oriented faults are active with strike-slip movement along this orientation and extension perpendicular to it. The neogene basins of Messini, Meligalas and Megalopolis are seismically very active and their eastern flanks are delineated by higher seismic activity than their western ones. This indicates that the basins are asymmetric with master faults defining their eastern-northeastern flanks. This hypothesis is supported by the asymmetric structure mapped at the offshore Messiniakos basin as densely spaced high resolution reflection seismic profiles have revealed. The western margins of the basins are less deformed and the seismic activity is dispersed over several minor NW-SE faults. Since the NW-SE striking faults onshore are truncated by major NE-SW oriented ones, their overall length is shortened, reducing their seismic potential and capacity to store large stresses that could produce events above Ms6.1. Offshore western Messinia, in the Ionian Sea, the size and activity of the faults is significantly larger and prone to develop events of larger magnitudes. Subcrustal seismicity indicates a deepening of the foci to the east-northeast.Part of this work was presented at the CIESM Conference, Monaco, 2001, and in the EGS General Assembly, Nice, 2001.     

Statistical Detection and Characterization of a Deviation from the Gutenberg-Richter Distribution above Magnitude 8

— We present a quantitative statistical test for the presence of a crossover c₀ in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake seismic moments, separating the usual power-law regime for seismic moments less than c₀ from another faster decaying regime beyond c₀. Our method is based on the transformation of the ordered sample of seismic moments into a series with uniform distribution under condition of no crossover. A simulation method allows us to estimate the statistical significance of the null hypothesis H₀ of an absence of crossover (c₀=infinity). When H₀ is rejected, we estimate the crossover c₀ using two different competing models for the second regime beyond c₀ and the simulation method. For the catalog obtained by aggregating 14 subduction zones of the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, our estimate of the crossover point is log(c₀)=28.14 ± 0.40 (c₀ in dyne-cm), corresponding to a crossover magnitude m_W=8.1 ± 0.3. For separate subduction zones, the corresponding estimates are substantially more uncertain, so that the null hypothesis of an identical crossover for all subduction zones cannot be rejected. Such a large value of the crossover magnitude makes it difficult to associate it directly with a seismogenic thickness as proposed by many different authors. Our measure of c₀ may substantiate the concept that the localization of strong shear deformation could propagate significantly in the lower crust and upper mantle, thus increasing the effective size beyond which one should expect a change of regime.