Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

陕西秦巴山区农业自然资源开发利用

农业自然资源据其在农业利用过程中的地位可分为两类:一类是生成农业自然资源的环境,另一类为可资直接利用的自然生成物(即狭义的农业自然资源)。陕西秦巴山区自然环境的主要特点是:复合山体高峻庞大,地跨暖温带和北亚热带,垂直分异明显。区内有:森林、草场、野生生物、林特产与农作物等多种农业自然资源。据此,提出了本区农业自然资源的开发利用途径。     

现代天文选址中的视宁度（Ⅱ）

在文献」１「４ 基础上，根据近年文选址实践中提出的问题，先进一步讨论了大气相干直径和时间的的物理和意义，然后强调了自由大气湍流的天文成像效应及选址中进行研究和测量的重要性。最后对差分像运动方法测量视宁度的定标和系统误差等问题作了分析。     

元岭金矿蚀变破碎带特征及其找矿意义

根据对元岭金矿三条蚀变破碎带一般地质特征、微量元素特征的对比研究，并借鉴邻近矿区蚀变破碎带的矿化特征，本文阐明了元岭蚀变破碎带矿化的有利构造部位，总结了蚀变破碎带特征与矿化强度之间的关系，指出蚀变破碎带的矿化蚀变元素为中低温组合，矿化蚀变愈强则参与元素的种类愈多、数量愈大。围岩性质对矿化蚀变有一定影响，围岩中的易迁移亲铜元素和亲硫铁族无素对矿化有利。据此，为进一步成矿预测、评价蚀变破碎带的含矿性提供依据。     

STUDY ON GIS FOR YIELD ESTIMATION BY REMOTE SENSING IN JILIN MAIZE BELT

ＳＴＵＤＹ　ＯＮ　ＧＩＳ　ＦＯＲ　ＹＩＥＬＤ　ＥＳＴＩＭＡＴＩＯＮ　ＢＹ　ＲＥＭＯＴＥ　ＳＥＮＳＩＮＧ　ＩＮ　ＪＩＬＩＮ　ＭＡＩＺＥ　ＢＥＬＴＳＴＵＤＹＯＮＧＩＳＦＯＲＹＩＥＬＤＥＳＴＩＭＡＴＩＯＮＢＹＲＥＭＯＴＥＳＥＮＳＩＮＧＩＮＪＩＬＩＮＭＡＩＺ...     

太阳磁场观测研究

简要回顾了近几年国际上太阳磁场研究的一些重要进展，包括耀斑与磁切和电流的关系，电流螺度和磁螺度，磁场拓扑性，三维磁场外推，色球磁场研究，日冕磁场研究，内网络磁元，磁流和振荡，极区磁场观测以及色球磁元观测等方面内容，同时也介绍了怀柔太阳观测站最近所取得的主要成果，自20世纪90年代以来，YOHKOH高分辨率的太阳X射线数据，SOHO的多波段大尺度观测，TRACE的高分辨太阳过渡区资料，为研究太阳磁场从内部到距离几十太阳半径处的大范围演化提供了依据，高效的空间资料结合长期的地面资料，将是正派推动太阳磁场研究的重要手段和必然趋势。     

MERLIN Images of Five Compact Symmetric Object Candidates at 1.6 GHz

1 INTRODUCTIONCompact Symmetric Objects (CSOs) are powerful and compact sources (overall size <1 bpc) with lobe emission on both sides of the central engine. The small size of these sourcesis almost certainly to be attributed to the youth of the sources themselves (ages < 104 yr) andnot due to a dense coallning medium (Readhead 1996). The unification scenario assumes thatCSOs evolve into compact steep spectrum (CSS) sotirces and then into Fanaroff-Riley type 11objects (Fanti 1995). …     

Simulating methane emission from a Chinese rice field as influenced by fertilizer and water level

Natural and agricultural wetlands are considered to be the major sources of global atmospheric methane (CH₄). A one‐dimensional model was developed to simulate methane emission and used to examine the influence of various physical processes on the rate of methane emission. Three processes involved in the methane emission are implemented in the model: production, reoxidation and transport. Three transport pathways were considered: diffusion across water–air or soil–air interfaces, ebullition and diffusion through plants. These pathways are influenced by soil properties, plant growth, water‐table conditions, temperature and external inputs (e.g. fertilizer). The model was used to examine the seasonal variation of the methane emission at a rice field in Hunan, China, which was observed during a field experiment for consecutive (early and late) rice seasons in 1992. The observed seasonal variations of methane emission, and role of plants in transporting methane to the atmosphere, are captured by the model simulation. Further model applications were conducted to simulate effects of fertilizer and water‐level condition on the methane emission. The results indicate that unfermented organic fertilizer produces a higher methane emission rate than mineral fertilizer. The simulations with treatments of a deep‐water covering and constant moisture reduced the methane emission. The rice field study provides a framework for further development of the model towards simulations based on spatially distributed variables (e.g. water table, soil temperature and vegetation) at a regional scale. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.