A fuzzy-Markov-chain-based analysis method for reservoir operation

In this study, a fuzzy-Markov-chain-based stochastic dynamic programming (FM-SDP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and distributions with fuzzy probability (DFPs) in reservoir operation. The concept of DFPs used in Markov chain is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties including both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. A fuzzy dominance index analysis approach is proposed for solving multiple fuzzy sets and DPFs in the proposed FM-SDP model. Solutions under a set of α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system. Solutions from FM-SDP provide a range of desired water-release policies under various system conditions for reservoir operation decision makers, reflecting dynamic and dual uncertain features of water availability simultaneously. The results indicate that the FM-SDP method could be applicable to practical problems for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between economic and system reliability criteria. Willingness to obtain a lower benefit may guarantee meeting system-constraint demands; conversely, a desire to acquire a higher benefit could run into a higher risk of violating system constraints.     

Influence of the nodal tide on the morphological response of estuaries

The nodal tide causes a periodic variation in the mean tidal range, with a period of 18.6 years and amplitude of about 4% of the mean range. As the cross-sectional area of the channel in an estuary has been observed to be related to the tidal prism, such a variation of the tidal range can significantly influence the morphological development of tide-dominated estuaries. Field observations from the Humber Estuary in England confirm that there is indeed an 18.6 year cycle in the total water volume of the estuary. In this estuary, with a relatively small morphological time scale, the response to the nodal tide variation appears to dominate the long-term large-scale sediment budget changes of the estuary. The semi-empirical model ESTMORF was able to reproduce these observations, in terms of the observed amplitude and phase lag (relative to the variation of the tidal amplitude) of the morphological response. It also showed good agreement with the along estuary variation in both the magnitude and phase of the response. To examine the character of the response in more detail, a simplified analytical solution has been derived from the governing non-linear equations. This has been investigated in terms of the sensitivity of the model to the various model parameters and by comparison with the historic data. The results demonstrate how the system response is strongly dependent on the morphological time scale of the estuary. Furthermore, the response is not uniform but varies along the length of the estuary, being most marked at the mouth and decaying up estuary. When examining changes in geomorphological features, such as the intertidal area, an appreciation of the role of the nodal tide is shown to be essential if historic data are to be properly interpreted.     

Estimation of methane fluxes from bottom sediments of Lake Baikal

Methane bubble fluxes in gas flares from bottom sediments in Lake Baikal were estimated for the first time using hydroacoustic methods. Earlier work has demonstrated the occurrence of gas seeps both inside and outside of areas where bottom simulating reflectors were identified in seismic profiles. Fluxes ranged from 14 to 216 tons per year, with the flux for the entire area of the central and southern basins ranging from 1,400 to 2,800 tons per year. Comparison with other water bodies showed that fluxes from the most intensive Baikal flares were similar to those in the Norwegian and Okhotsk seas. Gas hydrates decompose at the lower boundary of the gas hydrate stability zone due to sedimentation. Calculation of the amount of methane produced due to sedimentation gave a total of between 2,600 and 14,000 tons per year for the central and southern basins of the lake. Based on rough estimation, the total flux from shallow- and deep-water gas seeps is similar to the amount of methane produced due to sedimentation. This suggests that gas hydrates possibly occupy much more than 10?% of the pore volume near the base of the gas hydrate stability zone, or that there are other reasons for gas hydrate dissociation and bubble flux from these bottom sediments.     

The study on highly expressed proteins as a function of an elevated ultraviolet radiation in the copepod, Tigriopus japonicus

The objective of the study was to analyze constantlyhighly expressed proteins as a function of elevated midultraviolet (UVB, 280?C315 nm) radiation in Tigriopus japonicus sensu lato (T. japonicus s.l). We also analyzed associations between kinetics of radiation avoidance, measured as a covered distance per time unit, and highly expressed proteins. The obtained results indicate an increase in T. japonicus s.l. mobility between the control (no radiation) and mild UV radiation levels (15 kJ·m^?2). Two-dimensional gel electrophoresis combined with MALDI-MS-MS resulted in 2D protein map comprising of 686 protein spots, of which 19 were identified as highly expressed proteins across all experimental conditions. Obtained results indicate that calpain, vitellogenin, and collagenase are housekeeping protein that are expressed at a constant level independently of environmental changes and that adoption of a locomotive system for the avoidance of a UV source may be, at least partially, supported by hepatopancreas-driven metabolism.     

Changes in ecosystem carbon stocks following grassland afforestation of semiarid sandy soil in the southeastern Keerqin Sandy Lands, China

The ecological consequences of grassland afforestation in arid/semiarid sandy regions are not well known with respect to tree species and stand age. The present study quantifies the changes in above- and belowground carbon (C) stocks following afforestation in the southeastern Keerqin Sandy Lands with species of Mongolian pine and poplar. We studied 15-, 24-, and 30-year-old Mongolian pine plantations, 7-, 11-, and 15-year-old poplar plantations, and adjacent grasslands. The results show that total ecosystem C stocks increased following grassland afforestation. Aboveground C stocks increased at a rate of 2.75 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the poplar plantations, and 1.06 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the Mongolian pine plantations. Mineral soil C stocks decreased during the early stage of forest establishment, but recovered with increasing stand age. Root C stock increased significantly in the Mongolian pine plantations, but the poplar plantations showed no such increase relative to the grassland. Our results indicate that afforestation of the grassland in the southeastern Keerqin Sandy Lands would sequester more C than would continuous grassland. Tree species selection and stand developmental age should be considered in planning future afforestation projects.     

Grain size and transport characteristics of non-uniform sand in aeolian saltation

Size frequency distributions of sediment particles in a wind tunnel containing a bed of non-uniform sand are investigated by re-interpreting existing experimental data using particle-size analysis. Each particle sample is classified into one of eight groups according to its size grading. The analysis reveals that the modal shape of the particle-size frequency distributions of the saltating sand at different elevations or longitudinal distances is similar to that of the mixed sand in the bed once the boundary layer is fully developed. The standard deviation of the grain-size frequency distribution increases with increasing elevation above the bed then stays constant, whereas its skewness decreases. The mean grain size decays exponentially with elevation. The aeolian sand mass flux is determined for each size grading at different vertical and horizontal measurement locations. The vertical profile of aeolian horizontal mass flux depends on the size grading. The distribution of the sand transport rate according to the mean grain size in each grading fits the normal distribution. A parameter w_i is defined to reflect the likelihood of saltation for sand particles of the i-th size grading, and the mean sand size corresponding to the maximum value of w_i is found to be 0.2 mm. In addition, wind velocity strongly influences the magnitudes of the particle-size distribution and the sand mass flux distribution in both vertical and longitudinal directions.     

Seasonal and spatial distribution of heavy metals in the Selenga River Delta

In order to estimate the present-day pollution levels in the ecosystem of the Se-lenga River Delta and to monitor the changes caused by the discharge of household refuse and industrial wastes, as well as the functioning of the agricultural and stock farming, a comprehensive study of the water and bottom sediments in the main branches of the Selenga River Delta was carried out. This study has determined the concentrations of heavy metals in river water and bottom sediments in its delta.     

Numerical modelling of rise and fall of a dense layer in salt diapirs

Numerical models are used to study the entrainment of a dense anhydrite layer by a diapir. The anhydrite layer is initially horizontally embedded within a viscous salt layer. The diapir is down-built by aggradation of non-Newtonian sediments ( n = 4, constant temperature) placed on the top of the salt layer. Several parameters (sedimentation rate, salt viscosity, perturbation width and stratigraphic position of the anhydrite layer) are studied systematically to understand their role in governing the entrainment of the anhydrite layer. High sedimentation rates during the early stages of the diapir evolution bury the initial perturbation and, thus, no diapir forms. The anhydrite layer sinks within the buried salt layer. For the same sedimentation rate, increasing viscosity of the salt layer decreases the rise rate of the diapir and reduces the amount (volume) of the anhydrite layer transported into the diapir. Model results show that viscous salt is capable of carrying separate blocks of the anhydrite layer to relatively higher stratigraphic levels. Varying the width of the initial perturbation (in our calculations 400–800 m), from which a diapir triggers, shows that wider diapirs can more easily entrain an embedded anhydrite layer than the narrower diapirs. The anhydrite layer is entrained as long as rise rate of the diapir exceeds the descent rate of the denser anhydrite layer. We conclude that the four parameters mentioned above govern the ability of a salt diapir to entrain an embedded dense layer. However, the model results show that the entrained blocks inevitably sink back if the rise rate of the diapir is less than the rate of descent of the anhydrite layer or the diapir is permanently covered by a stiff overburden in case of high sedimentation rates.     

Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Tectonic aspects of Precambrian metallogeny of gold and uranium

A cause-and-effect relation is established between historical metallogeny of gold and uranium and extraterrestrial factors (impact events, evolution of the distance between Earth and Moon, rotation geodynamics), which significantly affected the Early Precambrian tectonic evolution of our planet. It is shown by the example of the complex Witwatersrand deposit that the Precambrian polygenetic Au and U deposits of the quartz–pebble type were formed within a near-equatorial epi-Archean supercontinent and were related to extraterrestrial factors under a rotation regime of the plume vertical tectonics. The beginning of breakup of the epi-Archean supercontinent in the Paleo- and Mesoproterozoic (2.0 ± 0.3 Ga) was related to the abrupt decrease in the velocity of the Earth’s axial rotation followed by the dominant regime of subhorizontal plate tectonics and formation of rich U deposits of the nonconformity type (which are structurally related to the horizontal inertial detachments at the contacts of the consolidated crust) and Meso- and Neoproterozoic sedimentary complexes.